Nordic non-life: Q3e – set to improve again

Continuing on the path towards a CR <80%

Q3: expect continued 30bp improvement, neutral risk/reward. UW -1-2% on lower discounting; '24e adj. EPS +2% (financials). Trading at 5-12% warranted cap. adj. P/E premium to peers: BUY.

Assistance & Personal Safety lead the way

Assistance and Personal Safety lead the way. Underwriting to grow at a CAGR of 4% until 2026. BUY reiterated with unchanged TP of SEK 100.

Margins to widen with Top synergies

Q3e: group CR of 83.7% and group adj PTP of EUR 464m. Adj. EPS '24e +2% and '25e-'26e -4% (mainly int. rate-driven). We argue that its UW skills deserve a premium valuation: BUY.

Largest improvement to come next quarter

Expect 11% y-o-y growth for both premiums and claims. High underlying claims growth expected for entire '24e. Preferred Norwegian non-life player, runner-up in the Nordics.

Expect a continued synergy delivery

Q3: expect 1pp UW improvement y-o-y driven by cost synergies. Unchanged estimates after last's week initiation of coverage. Trading at a too-high discount (~22%) to its larger peers: BUY.

Alm. Brand (Buy, TP: DKK15.00) - Room to grow

We forecast a Q3 PTP of DKK281m, c39% higher YOY, as strong financial markets look set to support earnings from a benign claims quarter for underwriting. With motor claims inflation still high, we expect continued repricing to support earnings through higher premiums and an improved underlying claims ratio. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by c1% and reiterate our BUY and DKK15 target price.

Consolidating forces

A benign quarter without major weather events should lead to strong YOY improvement in earnings across the Nordic non-life sector, helped by favourable financial markets and the ongoing momentum from multiple rounds of premium price rises. Industry consolidation continued with the acquisition of Topdanmark by Sampo, set to be completed by 18 October. The transaction should lead to increased consolidation, promoting rational market behaviour in Denmark. Based on a growing discount to peers, we hi...

What's not to like?

Alm. Brand - Initiation of coverage - Going back to its roots

After exiting banking and life insurance, and acquiring Codan Denmark, Alm. Brand has reduced complexity while significantly increasing scale, transforming into a pure P&C company. Through ongoing repricing and extracting further synergies, we forecast a 2023–2026 EPS CAGR of 29%, supporting stable dividends and an excess capital position that could see it distributing 25%+ of its market cap by 2026e. We initiate coverage with a BUY and DKK15 target price.

Norway: Best ideas Q3'24

Transformation complete: >20% upside

A look into the Norwegian claims inflation

Motor frequency taking a breather: Property claims inflation to be determined by frequency: Gross premiums up 9.5% y-o-y vs. claims 8.9%