Helios Towers has reported a mixed set of Q3 results. Revenue missed consensus while EBITDA came in in line. The company has increased guidance for organic tenancy net additions and is guiding towards the high end of the FY24 guidance.
Revenue and EBITDA trends improved again for China Tower, which alongside stable depreciation supported bottom-line momentum. In Indonesia, MTEL and TOWR continued to perform where the latter benefited from faster growth in its Fibre business thus should act as a buffer should the XL and Smartfren deal were to proceed.
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
IHS Towers has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Organic top line growth has seen a strong acceleration, driven by Nigeria, while margins improved nicely too. There was no new news regarding the strategic review. However, the company made a key announcement last week about the contract renewals with MTN Nigeria (HERE).
Both MTN Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have announced the renewal and extension of all their MLAs in Nigeria, including new financial terms. This development is materially positive for both companies in our view. This means all MLAs in Africa between MTN and IHS have now been renewed and extended. Separately, MTN has also announced the exit from Guinea-Bissau.
Both revenue and EBITDA trends improved, with KPIs looking healthy and Core Tower reverting to growth again. As depreciation costs continue to slow, earnings have been growing rapidly, up 10% YoY in the first half. China Tower has also announced its first interim dividends (RMB 0.0109/share) and guided for full year’s dividends to be no less than 75% payout.
The outperformer this quarter was China Tower, with stronger trends across the board. Indus continues to grow at a faster pace, but we think the market is too optimistic on Indus’ ability to turn this into cash as it is driven by single tenancy towers. In Indonesia the big news is that XL and Smartfren are in talks which has the potential to be significant for both TBIG and TOWR, and so despite better trends we downgrade price targets
IHS Towers has reported a slower quarter as expected. Top line performance was solid and came in ahead of expectations, but EBITDA growth was below expectations. Capex this quarter is well below historic levels as the company is now focused on cash generation and rebuilding the balance sheet. As a result, OpFCF margins improved.
We hosted a small group zoom call with the IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR, Colby Synesael yesterday. The company has had a torrid time over the last 2 years, but operationally has proven relatively resilient to intense pressure in our view. Our takeaway from the call was cautiously positive, though of course lots depends on Nigerian Macro.
IHS Towers has reported another solid top line performance on an underlying basis and KPIs were good. As expected, headline trends have materially slowed given Q3 is the first quarter fully impacted by the NGN devaluation. Guidance has been maintained but the company highlighted that EBITDA is now expected to be towards the lower end of the range.
IHS Towers has reported a good set of results on an underlying basis with both revenue and EBITDA trends accelerating and announced a modest share buyback program. We continue to think that the long-term fundamentals for IHS remain strong and remain Buyers.
Amongst our EM Tower coverage, African TowerCos continue to outperform. At this stage, we prefer IHS as it offers the best EBITDA growth profile, coupled with its Project Green and considering that diesel prices in Nigeria are falling, we should see meaningful pull through for the year, despite the recent devaluation of the Naira.
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