reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Helios Towers (Buy, TP: £1.80, +1%) Q3 25: Strong, positive MT guidan...
Helios Towers reported strong set of results today with EBITDA trends accelerating and the tenancy ratio continuing to rise. Net leverage ratio improved and FY25 guidance has been slightly lifted. The company has also released positive Mid-term guidance, instituted a $75m share buyback and given positive medium term shareholder remuneration strategy.
- Chris Hoare
China Tower (Buy, TP: HK$14, +20%) Q3 25 Quick Take: Slower on softer...
Results were a touch behind expectations following an extended decline in Tower revenue, led by lower ARP/Tenant. This impacted margins which partially offset the stabilising/lower D&A costs, resulting in slower earnings growth. Importantly, the company has flagged an increase in useful life of its DAS assets from 7 to 10 years starting from July and is expected to lower its D&A costs by RMB 870m in 2025. This represents 1.7% of consensus D&A costs. Our key takeaways below
- Chris Hoare
EM Tower Trends Q2 CY25 review: Stable; Upgrade IHS and Helios price...
Tower revenue trends were stable at a slower pace across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins continue to generally improve except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. We continue to see IHS as our preferred EM Towerco as it recovers from the numerous challenges of the past few years. We have upgraded our price targets for HIS (to US$10) and Helios (to £1.80).
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
China Tower (Buy, TP: HK$14, +24%) Q2 25 Quick Take: Stable growth, D...
Both revenue and EBITDA trends slowed but were in-line with expectations. Margins improved again which led to earnings progression and a 21% rise in interim dividends. We see our thesis playing out as stabilised revenue growth coupled with falling depreciation is supportive of earnings and therefore dividends growth. The stock had a good run but remains relatively cheap (4.7x FY25 EV/EBITDA), hence we remain Buyers with a HK$ 14 price target
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Towers - A Consistent Approach to EFCF and Shareholder Remun...
Following a similar note we published on the EM Telco sector, we apply the same consistent approach to Equity FCF for Global EM Towers. We have preferred Telcos over Towers for some time, as the drivers of upside for the Telcos (consolidation and declining capital intensity) is a headwind for the Towers.
- Chris Hoare
EM Towers Q1 CY25 review: Steady as she goes
Tower revenue trends were slower across the board except for India’s Indus Tower as it benefited from VIL’s network catch up spend. However, EBITDA margins are improving except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation.
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $7.7, +41%) – Q1 25: Strong start to the year; Rw...
IHS Towers has reported a strong set of result. Revenue and EBITDA came in above consensus by quite some margin and Q1 numbers trended above the FY25 guide across the board. The company has also announced the sale of its Operations in Rwanda.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
IHS (Buy, TP: US$7.7, +80%) - Investor Call Feedback - 31st March 2025
We had a bullish call last week with IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR Robert Berg. Despite tariff-related chaos the stock has performed well recently (+50% ytd) reflecting the better environment in Nigeria as well as action the company itself has taken to improve value, but we still think it looks undervalued and retain our Buy recommendation and US$7.7 price target.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
China Tower (Buy, TP: HK$14, +14%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Rising Two Wings...
China Tower saw Q4 revenue and EBITDA ahead of consensus by 0.9% and 4.8% respectively, led by strong momentum in Two Wings and good cost control. As margins have started to stabilise and earnings up 10% in 2024, the company announced an 11% increase in dividends which implies a 76% payout, in-line with its guidance. As depreciation is set to fall this year, we expect earnings to grow rapidly which should be supportive of the ongoing shareholder remuneration policy. At 3.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA, China...
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – NSR EM Top picks Feb 25 update. Top-8 beco...
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
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