China Tower saw Q4 revenue and EBITDA ahead of consensus by 0.9% and 4.8% respectively, led by strong momentum in Two Wings and good cost control. As margins have started to stabilise and earnings up 10% in 2024, the company announced an 11% increase in dividends which implies a 76% payout, in-line with its guidance. As depreciation is set to fall this year, we expect earnings to grow rapidly which should be supportive of the ongoing shareholder remuneration policy. At 3.5x FY25 EV/EBITDA, China...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
We update the NSR GEM Top Picks list. No stocks are dropped, and we add LILAC and TIM Brasil to our list, extending it to a Top-10 list from Top-8. Our picks had a good start, up 12% on average since the start of the year. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
Helios Towers has reported a mixed set of Q3 results. Revenue missed consensus while EBITDA came in in line. The company has increased guidance for organic tenancy net additions and is guiding towards the high end of the FY24 guidance.
Revenue and EBITDA trends improved again for China Tower, which alongside stable depreciation supported bottom-line momentum. In Indonesia, MTEL and TOWR continued to perform where the latter benefited from faster growth in its Fibre business thus should act as a buffer should the XL and Smartfren deal were to proceed.
Following similar efforts in Europe and LatAm we are launching coverage on the HY Telcos & Towers in EMEA & Africa. New names under coverage include Helios (also initiated on equity, pt GBp140), Axian Telecom and Liquid Intelligent. We also address IHS Towers (pt cut to US$ 6), VEON and Helios’ bonds.
IHS Towers has reported a solid set of Q2 results. Organic top line growth has seen a strong acceleration, driven by Nigeria, while margins improved nicely too. There was no new news regarding the strategic review. However, the company made a key announcement last week about the contract renewals with MTN Nigeria (HERE).
Both MTN Nigeria and IHS Nigeria have announced the renewal and extension of all their MLAs in Nigeria, including new financial terms. This development is materially positive for both companies in our view. This means all MLAs in Africa between MTN and IHS have now been renewed and extended. Separately, MTN has also announced the exit from Guinea-Bissau.
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