Similar headwinds to persist in Q2

Q2 due Friday 16 Aug, '24e-'26e adj. EBIT down 5-2%; -4% CAGR '23-'26e, keep SELL, TP SEK 40 unchanged

Hexagon Minor model adjustments

Ahead of Hexagon’s Q2 results (due on 26 July), we have made marginal calibrations to our estimates to factor in FX movements and the company’s acquisition of Voyansi. We do not consider these changes to be material and have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK140 target price. We believe muted organic growth YOY (our forecast 2.9%; Infront post-Q1 consensus 3.7%) in hardware divisions Geosystems and Manufacturing Intelligence could steal the attention, which leaves our Q2e E...

NL/UK: May figures weak in NL, strong in UK

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 06/27/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 27/06/2024

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ODDO : A favourable momentum from metal prices, but minimal impacts in...

>Trends unchanged since Q1 2024 - Trends remained unchanged in Q2, with stable demand at high levels in the mining sector, and weak demand in the construction sector (continued destocking by distributors and a persistent unfavourable trend in underlying demand in the short term, particularly in Europe). Detailed previews overleaf.Prices for the main commodities have been relatively buoyant in recent months, with gold (LBMA) up 21% over 12 months (12% YTD) and cop...

ODDO : Un environnement favorable pour les matières premières, mais de...

>Des tendances inchangées depuis le T1 - Les tendances sont restées inchangées au cours du T2 avec une demande stable sur des niveaux élevés sur le secteur minier, et une faible demande sur le secteur de la construction (poursuite du déstockage des distributeurs et demande sous-jacente toujours mal orientée à CT, notamment en Europe). Previews détaillés en page 2.Les cours des principales matières premières sont relativement bien orientés depuis quelques mois ave...

ABB Ltd. : Un T2 dans la même tendance que le T1, la division Electrif...

>Preview T2 : book-to-bill de 1.03x et 4.9% de croissance du CA en comparable - Nous prévoyons un T2 de bonne facture pour ABB, les tendances du T1 se confirment : demande soutenue sur les segments datacenters et utilities, reprise progressive de quelques activités à cycle court, et toujours un recul marqué de la demande en discrete automation. Nos prévisions sont assez proches de celles du consensus. Les commandes devraient progresser de 1.8% en comparable, les ...

ABB Ltd. : Q2 on the same trend as Q1, with the electrification divisi...

>Q2 preview: book-to-bill of 1.03x and 4.9% comparable sales growth - We forecast a decent Q2 for ABB, with the Q1 trends confirmed: demand underpinned on the data centres and utilities segment, gradual upturn in some short-cycle businesses, and still a marked decline in demand in discrete automation. Our forecasts are relatively close to those of the consensus. Orders should grow by 1.8% on a comparable basis, the comparison bases are improving and the discrete ...

In it together? Ownership alignment update

Management ownership has increased. Great alignment at ABB, good at Volvo, Alfa, Hexagon, and Metso. Low direct ownership at Epiroc and (despite some improvement) SKF.

The power of M&A compounding

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 06/19/2024

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SKF : Q2 2024 preview: the worst is behind us (Outperform vs Underperf...

>Q2 2024e: the last difficult quarter - For Q2 2024, we expect sales to decline -6.3% on an organic basis (vs -7.3% previously and -5% for the consensus), including a price effect of +1.1% and a volume effect of 7.4%. For Q2, the group is targeting a mid-single-digit decline in organic sales. For the Industrial division, we anticipate a decline of -6% in Q2, which should mark the end of: i/ the destocking phase at a number of OEMs and ii/ the negative impact of...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 19/06/2024

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SKF : Preview T2 2024 : le pire est derrière nous. Surperformance vs S...

>T2 2024e : dernier trimestre compliqué - Pour le T2 2024, nous anticipons un recul organique du CA de -6.3% (vs -7.3% précédemment et -5% attendu par le consensus), incluant +1.1% d’effet prix et -7.4% pour les volumes. Le groupe vise pour le T2 une baisse organique du CA « mid single digit ». Pour la division Industrial, nous anticipons un recul de -6% lors du T2 qui devrait marquer la fin : i/ de la phase de déstockage chez certains OEMs et ii/ de l’impact né...

Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK98.00) - Tough market dynamics continue

We forecast Q2 sales of SEK7,620m, with -c10% organic growth YOY and adj. EBITA of SEK1,009m, c7% below consensus. We have reduced our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c2% on average, due to updated FX. Following our estimate and valuation changes, we have reduced our target price to SEK98 (100), but reiterate our BUY. We expect net debt/EBITDA to continue to decline this year.

Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK132.00) - Minor sequential changes expected

Overall we expect minor sequential changes in Q2, and forecast sales of SE5,447m and adj. EBIT of SEK921m, both c3% below consensus. We have lowered our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c1% on average, reflecting updated FX. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK132 (140) on updated valuation and estimates.

Trelleborg AB: 1 director

A director at Trelleborg AB bought 1,000 shares at 402.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...