Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week

Q1 trends, estimates, valuation and top picks

The Q1 reports proved that sector companies could maintain record-high margins despite volume declines.

Aker BP (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Capex concerns looming

While investor concerns appear tilted towards a near-term production decline, we are increasingly concerned that consensus FCF will face meaningful negative revisions, as capex assumptions beyond 2026 look far too low. For 2027–2030, our FCF estimates are ~40% below consensus. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK290 (325) on a lower fair P/NAV.

Good start to the year

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

ABB Ltd: 2 directors

Two Directors at ABB Ltd sold 62,402 shares at between 44.780CHF and 44.933CHF. The significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...

Q1 first take: clean numbers a tad above

Renewable Weekly – 29 April 2024

This week, we summarise our Q1 previews for the sector.

Never change a losing team

We cut '24-'26e adj. EBITA by ~3%. Banking spin-off cancelled– negative for the equity story. Still a BUY, but TP down to EUR 26 (33)

April web-activity insights

Web-activity data in April points to trading activity being down c7% MOM for Avanza and broadly flat for Nordnet. Based on this, we see upside to consensus Q2 brokerage income for both companies. The platforms are due to release their April statistics on 6 May.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

Aker BP ASA - December 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/26/2024 Date Performance sin...

Deutz is a leading non-captive engine manufacturer for a wide range of customer industries with a strong and very well-known brand. The company will enter a profitable growth period soon (CAGR 2023-26e sales 8%, EPS 18%). We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 7.9, reflecting >40% upside from here. - ...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 26/04/2024

Deutz is a leading non-captive engine manufacturer for a wide range of customer industries with a strong and very well-known brand. The company will enter a profitable growth period soon (CAGR 2023-26e sales 8%, EPS 18%). We initiate coverage with an Outperform rating and a target price of € 7.9, reflecting >40% upside from here. - ...

TietoEVRY : Lower than expected Q1 2024 results but full-year guidance...

>Lower than expected organic growth and EBITA. Disappointing FCF - Tietoevry reported its Q1 2024 results yesterday before market opening. Organic growth was -2.0% year-on-year (vs. ODDO BHF estimate of -0.2%), which represents a slowdown relative to 1% in Q4. Growth was impacted by a poor performance in 1/ Tech Services (organic growth of -7% vs. ODDO BHF estimate of -4.8%); 2/ Create (organic growth of -5% vs. ODDO BHF estimate of -0.7%), due to the ongoing weak eco...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

TietoEVRY : Résultats T1 2024 inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance an...

>Croissance org. et EBITA, inférieurs aux attentes. FCF décevant - TietoEVRY a publié hier avant Bourse ses résultats T1 2024. La croissance org. ressort à -2.0% y/y(vs ODDO BHF :-0.2% org), en décélération par rapport au T4 (1% org.). La croissance a été impactée par une faible performance sur les segments 1/ Tech Services (-7% org. vs ODDO BHF : -4.8% org.); 2/ Create (-5% org. vs ODDO BHF : -0.7% org.), en raison de la faiblesse persistante de l'environnement écon...

Striving to improve margins - up to BUY

Weather weight as expected, but a more bullish margin story evolving. We increase our estimates by 5-10% from improved UW. Up to BUY (Hold) with TP NOK 195 (171); 10% upside.