Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

Comfortingly undramatic

In-line Q1 as Auto margin recovered. Estimates unchanged; return to growth modelled for Q4. Adds some support even after partial cyclical re-rating. HOLD.

SKF (Hold, TP: SEK250.00) - Margins going in the right direction

Disregarding some unclarity on fixed-cost under-absorption during the conference call, we view SKF’s Q1 report as solid, especially the better-than-expected adj. EBIT margin, supporting the longer-term margin story. However, cash flow was on the soft side and we struggle to bridge the 2024 guidance, which could become a more prominent risk later in the year. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 3% and target price to SEK250 (240), and reiterate our HOLD.

Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 500,000 shares at 228.239SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Aker BP ASA - December 2023 (LTM): Peer Snapshot

Compares key performance metrics against industry peers.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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SKF : A resilient margin despite a marked decline in sales in Q1

>Q1 2024: sales down 7% organic, adjusted EBIT margin up 30bp - This morning, SKF published Q1 2024 results that came in a shade below forecasts on sales but beat expectations on the EBIT margin.Sales were SEK 24.7bn (consensus at SEK 24.8bn), an organic decline of -7% (consensus at -6.5%). This decline resulted in negative volumes at both divisions, with a -7.3% decline in sales for Industrial and -6.2% in Automotive. As expected, the group indicates a marked sl...

SKF : Une marge résiliente malgré la forte baisse du chiffre d’affaire...

>T1 2024 : CA en recul organique de 7%, marge d’EBIT ajusté en hausse de 30 pb - SKF a publié ce matin des résultats T1 2024 légèrement inférieurs aux attentes au niveau du chiffre d’affaires mais supérieurs sur la marge d’EBIT.Le CA atteint 24.7 MdSEK (consensus à 24.8 MdSEK), en recul organique de 7% (consensus à -6.5%). Ce recul embarque des volumes négatifs dans les deux divisions avec un recul du CA de 7.3% pour Industrial et de 6.2% pour Automotive. Comme a...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...

Decent margin despite lower auto volume

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK540.00) - Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride

Q1 confirmed that demand remains strong for Alfa Laval and strengthened our view that investors and consensus are exaggerating concerns about the heat pump demand slowdown and underestimating the strength of the Marine market. Alfa Laval remains our sector top pick, being an enabler of the energy transition with promising long-term growth prospects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK540 (495), having increased our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 6–7%.

Easily brushing HVAC weakness aside

Orders 11% higher, with Marine and Energy jumping. Sales lagged, but no major concern; adj EBITA +4%. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY

Strong orders, resilient margin despite lower sales

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/25/2024

Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/04/2024

Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...

Aker BP : Q1 results beat expectations, pressure on cash and few catal...

>Operating profit 4% higher than expected - Aker BP released its Q1 2024 results showing revenues fully in line with expectations but EBITDA and EBIT 4% higher than expected at $ 2.8bn (-17.7% q-o-q) and € 2.2bn (+1.9% q-o-q), respectively. Net profit was 13% higher than expected at $ 531m, boosted by a tax rate of 75% vs 92% in Q4. CFFO was virtually flat at $ 1.45bn and FCF was down -26% to $ 339m.Good operating performance but upcoming maintenance st...

Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK395.00) - Sunnier skies await

Overall, Trelleborg’s Q1 was in line with our estimates and consensus, while we believe the outlook comment heading into Q2 might be on the overly cautious side. We have made limited (1% on average) estimate changes on adj. EBITA for 2024–2026e and reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our target price to SEK395 (380) and see limited upside potential for the stock.

Aker BP : Résultats T1 supérieurs aux attentes, pression sur le cash e...

>Un résultat opérationnel 4% supérieur aux attentes - Aker BP a publié ses résultats du T1 2024 avec des revenus parfaitement en ligne mais un EBITDA et EBIT 4% supérieurs aux attentes à respectivement 2.8 Md$ (-17.7% QoQ) et 2.2 Md$ (+1.9% QoQ). Le résultat net ressort 13% supérieur aux attentes à 531 M$ bénéficiant d’un taux d’impôts à 75% vs 92% au T4. Le CFFO est quasi stable à 1.45 Md$ et le FCF est en baisse de 26% à 339 M$.Une bonne performance op...

Highlighting H2 improvement

Solid Q1 numbers, in line Q2 guidance. No underlying changes, but adding M&A means +2% on '24e EBITA. Maintain HOLD and TP at SEK 375.