Reassuring price comments from Timken

ABB Ltd: 2 directors

Two Directors at ABB Ltd sold 62,402 shares at between 44.780CHF and 44.933CHF. The significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/29/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 29/04/2024

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Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

SKF : 2024 guidance still looks ambitious to us, based mainly on H2

>Q1 2024: margin resilience (+30bp for adjusted EBIT margin to 13.4%) - SKF reported on the morning of Friday, 26 April, Q1 2024 results ahead of expectations at the adjusted EBIT level.Revenues were down 7% on an organic basis (vs css at -6.5%). Although not quantified by SKF, volumes were down significantly, on our estimates (~-10%) with a still positive price-mix effect (~3%).The adjusted EBIT margin was up 30bp to 13.4% (vs css at 12.9%), a good performa...

SKF : La guidance 2024 nous semble toujours ambitieuse, reposant princ...

>T1 2024 : résilience des marges (+30 pb de marge d’EBIT ajusté à 13.4%) - SKF a publié vendredi matin des résultats T1 2024 supérieurs aux attentes au niveau de l’EBIT ajusté.Le chiffre d’affaires était en recul organique de 7% (vs css à -6.5%). Bien que non quantifiés par SKF, nous estimons que les volumes étaient en recul significatif (~-10%) avec un effet prix/mix toujours positif (~3%).La marge d’EBIT ajusté était en hausse de 30 pb à 13.4% (vs css à 12...

Comfortingly undramatic

In-line Q1 as Auto margin recovered. Estimates unchanged; return to growth modelled for Q4. Adds some support even after partial cyclical re-rating. HOLD.

SKF (Hold, TP: SEK250.00) - Margins going in the right direction

Disregarding some unclarity on fixed-cost under-absorption during the conference call, we view SKF’s Q1 report as solid, especially the better-than-expected adj. EBIT margin, supporting the longer-term margin story. However, cash flow was on the soft side and we struggle to bridge the 2024 guidance, which could become a more prominent risk later in the year. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 3% and target price to SEK250 (240), and reiterate our HOLD.

Sandvik AB: 1 director

A director at Sandvik AB bought 500,000 shares at 228.239SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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SKF : A resilient margin despite a marked decline in sales in Q1

>Q1 2024: sales down 7% organic, adjusted EBIT margin up 30bp - This morning, SKF published Q1 2024 results that came in a shade below forecasts on sales but beat expectations on the EBIT margin.Sales were SEK 24.7bn (consensus at SEK 24.8bn), an organic decline of -7% (consensus at -6.5%). This decline resulted in negative volumes at both divisions, with a -7.3% decline in sales for Industrial and -6.2% in Automotive. As expected, the group indicates a marked sl...

SKF : Une marge résiliente malgré la forte baisse du chiffre d’affaire...

>T1 2024 : CA en recul organique de 7%, marge d’EBIT ajusté en hausse de 30 pb - SKF a publié ce matin des résultats T1 2024 légèrement inférieurs aux attentes au niveau du chiffre d’affaires mais supérieurs sur la marge d’EBIT.Le CA atteint 24.7 MdSEK (consensus à 24.8 MdSEK), en recul organique de 7% (consensus à -6.5%). Ce recul embarque des volumes négatifs dans les deux divisions avec un recul du CA de 7.3% pour Industrial et de 6.2% pour Automotive. Comme a...

Decent margin despite lower auto volume

Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK540.00) - Sit back, relax and enjoy the ride

Q1 confirmed that demand remains strong for Alfa Laval and strengthened our view that investors and consensus are exaggerating concerns about the heat pump demand slowdown and underestimating the strength of the Marine market. Alfa Laval remains our sector top pick, being an enabler of the energy transition with promising long-term growth prospects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK540 (495), having increased our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 6–7%.

Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Facade Access progress

Alimak reported a solid Q1, with strong margins in Industrial and Facade Access. Margins in Construction were on the weak side (following weak Q4 orders), but management seemed confident of a return to normal as soon as in Q2. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 1–2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (100).

Easily brushing HVAC weakness aside

Orders 11% higher, with Marine and Energy jumping. Sales lagged, but no major concern; adj EBITA +4%. Great exposure, visibility, financials - keep BUY

Strong orders, resilient margin despite lower sales

Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK395.00) - Sunnier skies await

Overall, Trelleborg’s Q1 was in line with our estimates and consensus, while we believe the outlook comment heading into Q2 might be on the overly cautious side. We have made limited (1% on average) estimate changes on adj. EBITA for 2024–2026e and reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our target price to SEK395 (380) and see limited upside potential for the stock.