AkzoNobel: 3% beat on 1Q25 Adj. EBITDA, FY25 guidance maintained at +€1.55bn. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q25 results - extending the downcycle. Corbion: Apogee. Just Eat Takeaway.com: 1Q25 Trading Update - no impact on the bid. Kinepolis: 1Q25 preview. KPN: 1Q25 preview. Randstad: Strong 9% high quality beat on 1Q25, 2Q25 outlook looks a touch below. Vår Energi: Fine start of the year, more to come. Vopak: Reasonable start, cashflow developing nicely.
Akzo's 1Q adjusted EBITDA decreased by 2% and came in c. 3% below our forecast and c. 3% above consensus. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance of above €1555m is maintained and calls for at least 5% growth, whilst most of the predicted growth comes from self help measures. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 65 TP.
After lacklustre earnings growth in the recent past (2% adj EBITDA CAGR between 2019-2024), Akzo is now focusing on a combination of self-help measures and portfolio adjustment. On the back of the targeted (minimum) remaining gross savings of € 405m by 2027, management aims to grow adjusted EBITDA margins by 220bps over the next few years to 16%, whilst KBCS and consensus estimates are more cautious at respectively 15.3% and 15.6% by 2027. The targeted portfolio streamlining, with an overall foc...
Below are the highlights from the conference call. We remind that Akzo's 4Q adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% and came in c. 2% below our forecast and c. 1% below consensus, with a better than expected result of Performance Coatings offset by a weaker result of Deco Paints. Net debt/EBITDA came in weaker than expected at 3x on the back of incidentals and higher than expected working capital. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance calls for at least 5% growth which is in line with our forecast with consensus at ...
Akzo's 4Q adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% and came in c. 2% below our forecast and c. 1% below consensus, with a better than expected result of Performance Coatings offset by a weaker result of Deco Paints. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance calls for at least 5% growth which is in line with our forecast with consensus at +7%, whilst most of the predicted growth comes from self-help measures. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 70 TP.
Ahead of AkzoNobel's 4Q24 results on 29 January, we adjust our 2024F-2026F Adj. EBITDA forecasts by -2%/-3%/0% to reflect 3Q24 reporting, ongoing macro headwinds and a more nuanced view on cost development in 2025F and 2026F. We stick to our HOLD on a target price of €65 (previously €61) per share. As AkzoNobel has turned into a self-help story, the macro outlook remains uninspiring, to an extent that AkzoNobel's medium-term growth targets seem broadly captured by consensus expectations.
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