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ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AkzoNobel: 3% beat on 1Q25 Adj. EBITDA, FY25 guidance maintained at +€1.55bn. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q25 results - extending the downcycle. Corbion: Apogee. Just Eat Takeaway.com: 1Q25 Trading Update - no impact on the bid. Kinepolis: 1Q25 preview. KPN: 1Q25 preview. Randstad: Strong 9% high quality beat on 1Q25, 2Q25 outlook looks a touch below. Vår Energi: Fine start of the year, more to come. Vopak: Reasonable start, cashflow developing nicely.

Kristof Samoy ... (+5)
  • Kristof Samoy
  • Michiel Declercq
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste

Morning Notes : AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, ...

: AKZA NA, BESI NA, CRBN NA, CMBT BB, FLOW NA, RAND NA, VPK NA, TKWY NA

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Akzo Nobel FIRST LOOK: 1Q adj EBITDA -2%, FY guidance of € 1.55bn EBIT...

Akzo's 1Q adjusted EBITDA decreased by 2% and came in c. 3% below our forecast and c. 3% above consensus. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance of above €1555m is maintained and calls for at least 5% growth, whilst most of the predicted growth comes from self help measures. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 65 TP.

Aaron Brodjanac ... (+7)
  • Aaron Brodjanac
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Sven Edelfelt
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
Aaron Brodjanac ... (+7)
  • Aaron Brodjanac
  • Baptiste Salaville
  • Chaima Ferrandon
  • Charlotte Vaisse
  • Marc Lavaud
  • Sven Edelfelt
  • Thomas Zlowodzki
Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
Guy Sips ... (+7)
  • Guy Sips
  • Hilde Van Boxstael
  • Jacob Mekhael
  • Sharad Kumar S.P
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Wim Hoste
  • Wim Lewi
Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Akzo Nobel Transforming Akzo, one brushstroke at a time

After lacklustre earnings growth in the recent past (2% adj EBITDA CAGR between 2019-2024), Akzo is now focusing on a combination of self-help measures and portfolio adjustment. On the back of the targeted (minimum) remaining gross savings of € 405m by 2027, management aims to grow adjusted EBITDA margins by 220bps over the next few years to 16%, whilst KBCS and consensus estimates are more cautious at respectively 15.3% and 15.6% by 2027. The targeted portfolio streamlining, with an overall foc...

Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Akzo Nobel Feedback 4Q results conference call

Below are the highlights from the conference call. We remind that Akzo's 4Q adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% and came in c. 2% below our forecast and c. 1% below consensus, with a better than expected result of Performance Coatings offset by a weaker result of Deco Paints. Net debt/EBITDA came in weaker than expected at 3x on the back of incidentals and higher than expected working capital. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance calls for at least 5% growth which is in line with our forecast with consensus at ...

ING Helpdesk
  • ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

AkzoNobel: 4Q24 misses on Adj. EBIT and FCF, 2025F guidance merely in-line. Alfen: Preview: Setting the stage? Arcadis: Work on PFAS. ASML: 4Q24 results – Building credit. Events Calendar

Stefano Toffano
  • Stefano Toffano
Guy Sips ... (+5)
  • Guy Sips
  • Thibault Leneeuw
  • Thomas Couvreur
  • Thomas Vranken
  • Wim Hoste
Wim Hoste
  • Wim Hoste

Akzo Nobel FIRST LOOK: 4Q EBITDA +3%, guiding for >5% growth on self-h...

Akzo's 4Q adjusted EBITDA increased by 3% and came in c. 2% below our forecast and c. 1% below consensus, with a better than expected result of Performance Coatings offset by a weaker result of Deco Paints. FY25 adj EBITDA guidance calls for at least 5% growth which is in line with our forecast with consensus at +7%, whilst most of the predicted growth comes from self-help measures. Taking into account the volatile track record and low structural growth, we maintain our Hold rating and € 70 TP.

Stijn Demeester
  • Stijn Demeester

AkzoNobel/4Q24 preview and model update/HOLD

Ahead of AkzoNobel's 4Q24 results on 29 January, we adjust our 2024F-2026F Adj. EBITDA forecasts by -2%/-3%/0% to reflect 3Q24 reporting, ongoing macro headwinds and a more nuanced view on cost development in 2025F and 2026F. We stick to our HOLD on a target price of €65 (previously €61) per share. As AkzoNobel has turned into a self-help story, the macro outlook remains uninspiring, to an extent that AkzoNobel's medium-term growth targets seem broadly captured by consensus expectations.

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