Asarina Pharma (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Discontinuing coverage

We have discontinued coverage of Asarina Pharma. Our last published recommendation, target price and estimates should no longer be relied upon.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Hold, TP: SEK9.00) - Q2 in line with expectations

Asarina Pharma reported Q2 results in line with our expectations with no major events during the quarter. Operating costs are likely to continue to decrease as residual costs related to PMDD are gradually phased out. With temporary delays due to Covid-19, the read-out in MM is expected in Q2 2021. The timeline for TS development is intact with expected start in Q1 2021. We estimate the current cash position is sufficient for both development projects and should take the company to mid-2022. With...

Asarina Pharma (Hold, TP: SEK9.00) - Uncertain path ahead

Asarina Pharma reported a Q1 operating loss of cSEK21m, in line with our estimates. The disappointing outcome of the PMDD trial and its subsequent termination after Q1 is still visible, but the company remains committed to the continued development of Sepranolone in other indications. Both studies in menstrual migraine and Tourette’s syndrome are fully financed and additional measures aim to extend the cash runway. However, we believe visibility is limited and that uncertainty remains high. We...

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Hold, TP: SEK9.00) - Termination of PMDD development

Following yesterday’s announcement that the phase IIb study in PMDD had failed to meet its primary and secondary endpoints, Asarina Pharma has terminated Sepranolone’s development in PMDD. We have updated our model accordingly, making significant changes to our operating cost estimates (we had assumed PMDD would account for the majority of costs), but have also included Tourette’s in our model to better reflect the company going forward. As a result, we have cut our target price to SEK9 (6...

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK61.00) - Disappointing top-line results

Asarina Pharma announced yesterday evening that the study in PMDD failed to meet its primary and secondary endpoints. An unexpectedly high placebo effect seems to be behind the failure. This is a significant blow to the company as the majority of our fair value comes from the project in PMDD (the most advanced project in the pipeline). We expect the stock price to take a significant hit following this news and we believe a drop of as much as c75% could be possible.

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK61.00) - Takeaways from R&D day

The aim of today’s R&D day was to educate the market on the four key metrics used to evaluate the efficacy of Sepranolone. Top-line results are expected at end-April. An investor day is planned for 4 May, to dive into the results. The high unmet medical need was highlighted by a PMDD patient. We remain optimistic on the outcome and reiterate our BUY and SEK61 target price.

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK61.00) - Takeaways from R&D day

The aim of today’s R&D day was to educate the market on the four key metrics used to evaluate the efficacy of Sepranolone. Top-line results are expected at end-April. An investor day is planned for 4 May, to dive into the results. The high unmet medical need was highlighted by a PMDD patient. We remain optimistic on the outcome and reiterate our BUY and SEK61 target price.

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK61.00) - Positive outcome in phase IIb lik...

There is a significant unmet need in the treatment of premenstrual dysphoric disorder (PMDD) and treatment options leave much to be desired, with many women not responding to or discontinuing treatment due to side effects. Asarina Pharma’s phase IIa study provided several lessons, which have been addressed in the ongoing phase IIb trial. After reviewing the data from the phase IIb study to date, we believe there are several factors that imply a positive outcome. As a result, we have raised our...

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK44.00) - Approaching readout in PMDD

Asarina Pharma reported a Q4 operating loss of cSEK21m, slightly better than we expected. The ongoing phase IIb in PMDD is rapidly approaching readout, with a potential trigger at end-April. Clinical development in MM and Tourette’s continues to progress according to plan, with top-line results from the trial in MM expected in Q1 2021 and the initiation of the trial in Tourette’s expected by end-2020. We reiterate our BUY and SEK44 target price.

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK44.00) - Progressing according to plan

Clinical development of Sepranolone progressed according to plan with the final patient recruited in PMDD and the first patient recruited in MM. Top-line results are expected in Q2 2020 for PMDD and in late-2020 for MM. Following a capital raise Asarina now has financing to conduct its phase IIa study in Tourette’s syndrome. Asarina’s Q3 operating loss increased QOQ mainly due to higher R&D spending. We reiterate our BUY and SEK44 target price.

Northern Lights

Asarina Pharma (Buy, TP: SEK44.00) - Encouraging pre-clinical data

Asarina Pharma reported a Q2 operating loss of cSEK28m, versus our estimate of cSEK21m. At the end of the quarter, it had a cash position of cSEK110m, and in our view, it looks to be still on track with a burn rate that should take it up to the end of 2021 without the need for an additional capital raise. During the quarter, encouraging results were presented from a pre-clinical model in Tourette’s syndrome. If the company decides to accelerate the development of sepranolone in Tourette’s sy...