reports
- ABGSC Services Research
- Ali Shemmari
- Petter Nystrøm
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK59.00) - 2024 renewals already de...
Coor reported a solid Q1, in line with expectations, and we have only tweaked our forecasts following the results. A strong contract extension trend has derisked 2024, with contract volumes YTD already matching the full year 2023 delivery, suggesting a more stable base for growth and efficiency improvements. We continue to like its FCF profile, low operating risk, scope for value-enhancing acquisitions, and strong yield support. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK59 (57....
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Weak Q1, but better than forecast
XXL reported weak Q1 results, albeit slightly better than expected, as it continues to underperform in a challenging market. On a positive note, the company continues to make progress on its strategic initiatives and has improved its financial position following the private placement. We have cut our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 21–13% on slightly revised revenue and margin assumptions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Soft Q1 in line with pre-warning
We consider this a slightly positive report for XXL, including weak figures in line with pre-warned levels, but slightly above our forecasts and consensus, and with no change to the outlook. We expect c5–10% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a slight positive share price reaction is warranted.
Moody's announces completion of a periodic review of ratings of Cityco...
Moody's Ratings has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Citycon OYJ and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 21 March 2024 in which Moody's reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the releva...
- Ole Martin Westgaard
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Yields trump membership growth
Despite being marginally below consensus for Q1e, we are positive ahead of the report as we believe it should provide yet more evidence that SATS is on track to deliver on its medium-term targets to improve profitability. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price, having made slight positive estimate revisions, as we continue to find the valuation attractive.
- Kate Heseltine
SATS - Lean and healthy
SATS continues manifestly to deliver on its strategy of premiumisation with currency adjusted membership revenue up 11% in Q423 (15% for the full year) and assurance of ‘significant unleashed potential’ within the existing estate in terms of capacity utilisation and membership yield. Operating leverage, complemented by tight cost control (Q423 currency adjusted opex down 2%) and minimal expansionary capex for the time being, provides scope for lucrative marginal revenue growth (Q423 EBITDA up te...
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Sats (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Profitability improvement on track
We believe the Q4 report confirmed SATS is on track to improve its existing platform’s profitability through increased memberships, higher yields and good cost control. We have upgraded the stock to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK21 (16) on our positive estimate revisions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Sats (Hold, TP: NOK16.00) - Strong Q4 report
We consider this a positive report for SATS, including better than expected Q4 results and a membership base slightly above expectations. We expect 3–5% positive revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.
- Karl-Johan Bonnevier
Coor Service Management (Buy, TP: SEK57.50) - Reset DPS allows for fut...
We believe Coor improved in Q4, well-offsetting the lost Ericsson contract, with its model still showing strong FCF. We have only tweaked our 2024–2026e EPS. We continue to like its FCF profile, low operating risk, scope for value-enhancing acquisitions, and strong yield support, with the reset 2023 DPS of SEK3.00 (7.2% yield) allowing for de-gearing towards 2x net debt/EBITDA and a 2024–2026e DPS growth scenario. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK57.5 (56).
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (Hold, TP: NOK0.80) - Running out of runway
The Q4 results were below expectations and the outlook for Q1 was soft. While management looks to be making good progress in its turnaround plan, the runway might prove too short, increasing the risk that additional funding is needed. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK0.8 (1.2), reflecting negative estimate revisions and increased funding risk.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - New guidance structure
Q4 sales and EBITDA missed our forecasts as strategic brands sales were soft. The 2024 guidance was also soft but in a new better structure, we believe, for revenue growth of 7–10% CER (-4% in DKK) and adj. EBITDA growth of 10–16% in CER (-9% in DKK). We also note the decision to move Lu AF82422 into phase III in MSA. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Focus on guidance and M&A
We expect Lundbeck to reach the high end of its 2023 guidance, and forecast Q4 revenue of DKK5,111m and adj. EBITDA of DKK929m. For 2024, we look for continued good growth across strategic brands (we forecast 12.9%), and we believe investors will focus on the M&A agenda to strengthen the late-stage pipeline. We expect the 2024 guidance to be for revenue of DKK21.0bn–21.6bn and EBITDA of DKK5.7bn–6.3bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Sats (Hold, TP: NOK16.00) - From member freeze to squeeze
We are neutral on SATS ahead of its Q4 results, expecting EBITDA to miss consensus, and a slight decline in memberships QOQ on increased churn. As a result, we have downgraded the stock to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK16 (14) as peer valuations have expanded, valuing the stock at a 2024e P/E of 13x, broadly in line with Nordic retail peers.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
XXL (Buy, TP: NOK1.20) - Turnaround in progress
We expect weak Q4 results, reflecting still-low demand for sporting goods and high campaign activity. However, we believe XXL is well placed for a market recovery, given its leading position and promising transformation plan. We reiterate our BUY and NOK1.2 target price.
Citycon Oyj: 1 director
A director at Citycon Oyj sold 15,000 shares at 5.288EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly show...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Lundbeck (Buy, TP: DKK44.00) - Focus on progressing the pipeline
At Lundbeck’s R&D event in London yesterday, focus was on pipeline progression and its R&D commitment. Lundbeck believes two of the six discussed pipeline candidates could reach the market in 2029. In the coming years, we expect increased focus on acquisitions to strengthen the late-stage pipeline to facilitate timely new product launches before the ‘patent cliff’ (we estimate in 2029). We reiterate our BUY and DKK44 target price.
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