September: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

Stora acquires a Finnish sawmill company

Better than peers, as usual

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK185.00) - In pole position

Due to lower-than-expected costs for the containerboard and sawn goods businesses, Q3 earnings were above our expectations. The Q3 report removed much of the earnings uncertainty for 2025e. As a result of its unique business model (with 50% backward integration in its own forest mitigating wood price inflation), signals that pulp prices are set to improve, and earnings support from growth investments, we continue to see a good risk/reward in a high-quality name. We reiterate our BUY and have inc...

Q3 EBITDA +7%

Wood is up and Pulp is down

Q3 preview

August: Pulp shipments -10% y-o-y

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Attractive entry points in quality

Due to our more cautious near-term price assumptions for pulp coupled with FX headwinds (stronger SEK), we have lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 4–5%. Still, our earnings for 2025–2026e remain well above consensus. As a result of its unique business model (with 50% backward integration in its own forest mitigating wood price inflation), signals that pulp prices are set to improve, and earnings support from growth investments, we continue to see a good risk/reward in a quality name. We reiterate ...

Heads-up for CMD 5 September

July: Pulp shipments -4.0% y-o-y

June: Pulp shipments -4.5% y-o-y

Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA: 1 director

A director at Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA bought 1,800,000 shares at 145.940SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK185.00) - Opex control and pricing tailwind

SCA’s Q2 report and outlook comments were close to our expectations, and our bullish 2024–2027e earnings are largely unchanged. Given SCA’s unique backward-integrated business model with its own forests, mitigating wood price inflation, evidence of strong market fundamentals for pulp and containerboard, and earnings support from growth investments, we continue to see a good risk/reward. We reiterate our BUY and SEK185 target price.

Low on energy - down to the forest value again

Less energy from renewable

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK185.00) - Pricing power and opex stability

Due to our slightly more cautious view on SCA’s pulp business, we have lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 7–3%. Still, our forecasts for 2025 and beyond remain well above consensus. As a result of its unique business model, with 50% backward integration in its own forest mitigating wood price inflation, evidence of strong market fundamentals for pulp and containerboard, and earnings support from growth investments, we continue to see a good risk/reward. We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our t...

Liquid packaging board just got a bit more risky

June: Pulp shipments flat y-o-y

Costs push prices higher

A long list of price increases as costs push prices higher. Q2e EBIT likely down q-o-q: higher maintenance costs. Smart to buy when macro is low.