Apr: Pulp shipments +2% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA: 1 director

A director at Svenska Cellulosa AB SCA bought 1,800,000 shares at 132.397SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

Mar: Pulp shipments +7% y-o-y

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Quality, growth and forest values

The main appeal of SCA in our view is its backward-integrated business, with its own forests supplying about 50% of its wood and fibre needs. With the stock priced at a record-high discount to the value of its own forestry business at the same time that SCA offers earnings growth and trades at attractive multiples on our forecasts, we continue to see a compelling investment case. We reiterate our BUY and SEK160 target price.

In line, but a stronger SEK hurts

Q1 EBITDA in-lne

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK160.00) - Resilient earnings in harsh markets

Given overall deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, combined with worsened FX, we have made significant 15–13% cuts to our 2025–2026e EBITDA. Still, due to the unique backward-integrated business model enabling exceptionally favourable production costs versus most peers, SCA is set to report healthy earnings even in a harsh economic environment. With the stock valued far below our SOTP of SEK240, we see excellent entry points in a unique, quality company. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our...

Two negatives and one positive

Q1 preview

Feb: Pulp shipments +0.3% y-o-y

January: Pulp shipments +6.2% y-o-y

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - On course for solid earnings growth

Q4 earnings were in line with our expectation and in our opinion confirmed that SCA is poised for strong earnings growth in 2025, in part due to 15–20% more containerboard volumes, but also good prospects of improved markets and prices for containerboard and market pulp. Given its unique business model (50% backward integration in its own forests), we see SCA as well placed to mitigate wood price inflation that we believe is likely to linger in 2025. We still see a good risk/reward in what we vi...

Price hikes lead the way

Q4 EBITDA -6% vs cons

December: Pulp shipments +1% y-o-y

SCA (Buy, TP: SEK185.00) - From headwind to tailwind

We have lowered our 2024–2025e EBITDA by 1–7% but largely maintained 2026e, on higher opex and more cautious near-term earnings margins for all SCA’s industries. However, our 2025–2026e earnings remain well above consensus, while the discount to the forestland value is close to record high. Given its unique business model (50% backward integration in own forest mitigating wood price inflation) and signals for improving pulp prices, we still see a good risk/reward in a quality name. We reiterate ...

Little momentum, more value

Q4 preview

November: Pulp shipments -4% y-o-y