Schibsted ASA: 1 director

A director at Schibsted ASA sold 14,850 shares at 315.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 80/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Just a delay

NMP 3% below, weak outlook and cost-cut delays. Buying the remainder of Finn at a ~28% discount to our SOTP. Still solid value support: SOTP NOK 350/sh. BUY, TP NOK 350 (355).

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Whetting the blade

Schibsted delivered a weak Q1 report, including figures below expectations adjusted for News Media due to higher costs YOY and the withdrawal of the 2024 guidance for Nordic Marketplaces. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price, with negative estimate revisions offset by peer group multiples expansion.

NP 3% below, cost cuts paused

Q1: Group EBITDA 0% vs cons: NP 3% below. Cost cuts paused until Media separation. Targets paused.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Cautious distribution

Schibsted has announced a final agreement for the sale of News Media to the Tinius Trust and an intention to return NOK24bn to shareholders. We find the proposed distribution slightly on the low side as it will leave Schibsted debt free. Furthermore, we continue to find the proposed selling price for News Media low.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - All key segments set to disappoint

We are cautious ahead of Schibsted’s Q1 results (due at 07.00 CET on 26 April), expecting all the key segments to miss consensus on a combination of lower sales and higher costs. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - News Media disguises softness

The Q4 report was soft, as the slight earnings beat was driven by news Media, which is set up for sale, while the outlook for Jobs and Lendo has led us to make slight reductions to our 2024e EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price as we continue to see valuation support, with the stock trading in line with our SOTP.

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Time for reflection

Our Q4e EBITDA is 7% below consensus, driven by Nordic Marketplaces, as we see softer volume trends across the main verticals. We have raised our target price to NOK320 (290) but downgraded to HOLD (BUY), as the stock is trading in line with our SOTP adjusted for the potential selling price for Adevinta and News Media.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK290.00) - Q3 beat, but all eyes on Adevinta

A solid Q3 report included a 10% EBITDA beat versus consensus and no change to the mid-term guidance. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK290 (280), reflecting the recent revaluation of Adevinta and positive estimate revisions.

Northern Lights

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - The gloves are on

Schibsted reported a solid Q2, with all key segments beating expectations and no change to the medium-term guidance. Despite our positive estimate revisions to reflect the recent market revaluation of Adevinta, we have cut our target price to NOK280 (300), but reiterate our BUY.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK300.00) - Soft Q2e on macro headwinds

We expect Schibsted’s Q2 results to be slightly below consensus, reflecting a challenging advertising and job market. On a positive note, we expect strong performance in the Mobility and Real Estate verticals. We reiterate our BUY and NOK300 target price.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK300.00) - Strong ARPA trend across verticals

Although a weaker job and advertising market is having a negative impact on Schibsted’s near-term earnings, we find the strong ARPA trend across verticals in its Nordic Marketplace division encouraging. We reiterate our BUY and target price of NOK300, supported by our SOTP.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK300.00) - CMD takeaways

Schibsted dropped c11% yesterday following soft guidance for Q1, with negative EBITDA from News Media, a cautious outlook for the job vertical for 2023, and a statement from the Tinus Trust that the market interpreted to indicate that the crystallisation of the Adevinta stake was less likely near-term. However, we believe the growth targets for Nordic marketplaces imply an acceleration of the medium-term revenue growth targets. We reiterate our BUY and NOK300 target price.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK300.00) - News Media makes the headlines

We expect Schibsted to report a weak Q1, hurt by negative results from News Media owing to a challenging advertising market, lower print revenues and higher costs. For Nordic marketplaces, an overall still-healthy volume trend and price increase is challenged by weakening job markets. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK300 (340) on negative estimate revisions.

Northern Lights

Online car verticals shifting gears

The car vertical represents 40% of Adevinta’s and 30% of Schibsted’s Nordic marketplace revenues. In this report, we analyse how the changing car industry is set to affect online classifieds in the medium to long term. For online classifieds, investor concerns include the impact on revenues of fewer car sales and reduced private ownership. However, we believe the potential upside from more monetisation and new business models in new segments could far exceed the effect of the market shift.

Northern Lights

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK340.00) - Gains from Adevinta revaluation

The Q4 results were above expectations, but with a soft mix. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK340 (250), with our updated SOTP reflecting slight positive estimate revisions and the significant recent revaluation of Adevinta.

Schibsted (Buy, TP: NOK250.00) - Q4 beat, but a soft mix

We consider this a slightly positive report for Schibsted, including figures above expectations, but with a weak mix and reiterated guidance. We expect consensus 2023 EBITDA up 1–2% on the report and believe a slight positive share price reaction is warranted.