With the sales of NVIDIA H200 to China, Chinese AI developers will receive a major boost in compute resources, and China’s AI development will further accelerate in 2026. That said, domestic AI chips shipments will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the strengthening of local supply chain remains the highest priority. We maintain our positive view on the domestic AI supply chain with preferences for WFE makers like NAURA. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware We see an acceleration in China’s AI development progress in 2026, with NVIDIA successfully obtaining the US government’s approval on H200 sales to China, which will provide a major boost to the Chinese the AI application users. We also believe that the shipment volume of domestic AI chips will receive minimal impact, with foreign chips acting as a “demand gap filler” while the establishment of a capable local supply chain remains the highest priorit...
ZTE’s 3Q25 results are significantly below expectations, with revenue declining 24.9% qoq to Rmb30b, which is well below our/market estimates of Rmb33b-34b. We believe the significant 14.5ppt yoy and 5.0ppt qoq decline in gross margin was due to a weaker-than-expected carrier network business which has much higher margins (>50%) than its other businesses. Due to the decline in gross margins, reported net profit plunged 87.8% yoy and 89.8% qoq to Rmb264m, a significant miss vs consensus estimates...
Greater China Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected...
Top Stories Company Results | Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb80.80/Target: Rmb89.50) FII registered a stellar quarter, with net profit beating our and consensus estimates on stronger-than-expected margins. Top-line lagged our expectations, likely due to differences in product mix, and also the reason behind margins remaining elevated despite the product ramp-up of the lower-margin GB200 NVL72 racks. With the recent checks continuing to point towards a much stronger-than-expected ...
AI infrastructure investments continue to surge, with consensus forecasts for top China/US hyperscalers growing over 10% and 20% qoq respectively. This should fuel AI server demand growth of 60% yoy by 2026. Consumer electronics remain strong, with iPhone 17 lead times far exceeding that of iPhone 16 and Android flagships set for further spec upgrades, which will support multi-year shipment growth. China’s automation and robotics markets are also recovering faster than expected, with humanoid ro...
2Q25 results registered a beat in the top-line, but a poorer product mix impacted blended margins, causing a slight miss in net profit. Nevertheless, the robust growth in ZTE’s AI infrastructure-related unit beat our and market expectations, indicating a faster transformation in its business model to an AI infrastructure/ localisation play. We are turning more constructive on ZTE’s growth/revaluation story, but maintain HOLD for now after the rally in the past month; raise target price to HK$40....
ZTE’s 1Q25 revenue beat the street’s expectations, with revenue growing 7.8% yoy. However, as the revenue growth was driven by the low-margin AI server business, product mix and hence margins deteriorated significantly, and net profit ended up largely in line. We expect contribution from the AI server business to remain elevated in the next few quarters, which will likely result in gross margin pressure in the near term. Maintain HOLD; trim target price to HK$24.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/BUY/Rmb17.19/Target: Rmb39.60) Tinci’s 1Q25 net profit came in above estimates at Rmb150m (+30.8% yoy/+2.7% qoq), due to higher-than-expected sales volume and ASP. Going forward, Tinci will sustain earnings growth through cost control measures, product upgrading and global capacity expansion. We raise our 2025-26 net profit forecasts by 119%/150% to Rmb887m/ Rmb967m respectively, and introduce our 2027 net profit forecast o...
GREATER CHINA Results Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology (002709 CH/BUY/Rmb17.19/Target: Rmb39.60) 1Q25: Earnings beat on revenue; raise target price from Rmb18.00 to Rmb39.60. Upgrade to BUY. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$43.38/Target: US$60.00) 3QFY25: Earnings miss; subdued top-line but solid margin outlook in 4QFY25. Ping An Healthcare and Technology Company (1833 HK/BUY/HK$7.15/Target:HK$11.00) 1Q25: Results beat; maintains double-digit revenue growth target for...
The IT hardware sector registered corrections in share price in the past two weeks as market realised that contribution from the exciting GenAI-driven applications are unlikely to be meaningful in 2025. Nevertheless, the potential cost savings and efficiency boost facilitated by AI are clear and we expect investments into applications development to remain high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT and expect downstream AI applications to remain a key investment focus through 2025.
ZTE’s 4Q24 results were again below our and market expectations, with revenue declining 10.3% yoy and earnings plunging 65.1% yoy. While the growth for overseas and G&C businesses remain robust, margins have taken a hit, especially for the G&C business, primarily due to a continued shift in product mix. Moving forward, we expect domestic telco capex to remain weak, while ZTE’s opex is likely to remain resilient. Maintain HOLD but raise target price to HK$26.50.
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Uptick in February. Sector Macau Gaming: Feb 25 GGR beat thanks to tail-end effect post CNY; switch top pick to Galaxy. Results New World Development (17 HK/HOLD/HK$4.82/Target: HK$4.45): 1HFY25: Net loss in line with profit warning and primarily caused by inventory impairment; refinancing progress to be the key. Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK/HOLD/HK$3.29/Target: HK$3.60): 2024: Below expectations; industry coordination and production discipline crucial to restore mar...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI Manufacturing PMI rebounded to expansionary territory at 50.2 (+1.1pt mom) while non-manufacturing PMI stabilised at 50.4 (+0.2pt mom). Construction activity improved to 52.7 (+3.4pt mom), offsetting weakness in services at 50.0 (-0.3pt mom). Large enterprises led the recovery at 52.5 (+2.6pt mom), while small and medium-sized firms continued to struggle as the former are usually the first to benefit from government-led economic projects. Sector Macau Gaming Maca...
Dragged by a sluggish domestic carrier network business, ZTE’s 3Q24 results were below our/market expectations, with revenue registering a surprising 3.9% yoy fall despite a low base. On the bright side, the growth of overseas and G&C businesses remained solid, while margins and opex remained resilient. Going forward, we expect domestic telco spending to remain weak through 2025, and as such cost controls will likely provide key support to earnings growth through 2025. Downgrade to HOLD with a t...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) Ping An delivered robust 3Q24 results with OPAT rising 22% yoy, driven by a strong performance in the life and P&C segments. The asset management business turned red due to impairment but reversal is possible if China’s economy improves further. NBV grew 1.1x in 3Q24, mainly supported by strong life premium growth and margin expansion. Although share price rose 30% mom, the strong earnings turnaround could...
GREATER CHINA Results Ping An Insurance Group (2318 HK/BUY/HK$49.05/Target: HK$69.00) 3Q24: Bountiful harvest after prolonged dry spell. ZTE Corporation (763 HK/HOLD/HK$21.05/Target: HK$19.00) 3Q24: Results miss, expect stringent cost controls before next capex cycle. Downgrade to HOLD. Zijin Mining (2899 HK/BUY/HK$17.40/Target: HK$21.90) 3Q24: In line; mining entities’ gross margin down 1.2ppt qoq on lower copper ASP. Update Jiumaojiu In...
1H24 results are mixed. AI infrastructure-related businesses remain robust, with solid guidance for 2H24-25, but the market’s high expectations, mounting geopolitical tensions and a lack of long-term visibility have capped upside in the near term. As such, we continue to prefer AI-device names as we expect more meaningful developments in the edge-AI ecosystem throughout 2H24 thanks to new hardware and OS launches. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: Xiaomi and Lenovo.
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade Exports rebounded in August but outlook remains challenging. Sector IT Hardware Maintain preference for the more defensive AI-device plays as uncertainty remains high. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/HOLD/Rp7,250/Target: Rp7,760) 7M24: Strong ...
ZTE’s 2Q24 results were mixed, with revenue and gross margins missing expectations due to a worse-than-expected carrier network business. This was, however, offset by better-than-expected operating expenses and higher non-core income. Going forward, we expect the decline in domestic telco capex to continue weighing down on revenue growth, but the recovery in corporate spending in China may partially offset the sluggish telco business. Maintain BUY. Cut target price to HK$19.00.
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