On 16 Sep 25, the Ministry of Commerce and eight other government departments jointly issued a plan to expand service consumption. This plan introduces 19 measures focusing on five areas. We highlight IP-related consumption and tourism as the two primary themes positioned to benefit the most. In addition, the government plans to optimise student vacation schedules by exploring the possibility of shortening winter and summer vacations while introducing spring and autumn vacations to increase the ...
In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are committed to enhancing shareholder returns. W...
Greater China Sector Updates | Consumer In 2Q25/1H25, among 22 companies under our coverage, 9 beat / 7 inline or mixed / 6 missed. We observed: a) Deflation persists. b) Companies with more diversified product portfolios, along with product offerings ridding on the emerging consumption trends, stay constructive. c) Companies are expanding into new consumption channels. d) Sectors supported by monetised policy stimulus continue to demonstrate robust domestic sales in 3Q25. e) Companies are c...
In August, the HSI and MSCI China Index hit their ytd highs, posting gains of 1.2% mom and 4.2% mom respectively, supported by dovish remarks from Fed Chair J. Powell at Jackson Hole. Looking ahead, we expect some consolidation as most of the positives have been priced in and are biased to SELL. We add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, while initiating SELL calls on Li Auto and OOIL. We take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME.
Anta’s 1H25 results are in line with expectations, with the decline in gross margin offset by efficiency improvement and government grants. Looking ahead, the company has lowered its 2025 retails sales target for the Anta brand to mid-single digits. However, with strong performance of all other brands, of which the sales target has been raised to 40%, and solid performance of Fila, the company is confident about achieving the teens growth target at the group level. Maintain BUY and raise target ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anhui Conch Cement (914 HK/BUY/HK$24.46/Target: HK$28.90) Anhui Conch Cement reported 1H25 earnings of Rmb4,367.9m (+31.3% yoy), representing 42.5% of our full-year estimates, slightly above expectations. Gross margin for self-produced products rose to 28.9% (+5.8ppt yoy). Cement ASP edged up 1.5% yoy, while unit production cost fell 7.1% yoy, mainly on a 13.8% drop in fuel and power costs. Cement and clinker sales volume was broadly stable at 126mt (-0.4% yoy), outperfo...
GREATER CHINA Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$101.60/Target: HK$114.20) 1H25: Results in line; lowers Anta brand target slightly, but maintains group-level target. CR Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$30.40/Target: HK$34.10) 1H25: Results in line; positive 2H25 sales outlook & regular REIT expansion vision. Horizon Robotics (9660 HK/BUY/HK$7.94/Target: HK$8.88) 1H25: Hardware shipments more than double; eyeing mass pro...
The Anta brand’s 2Q25 performance missed management’s expectation due to: a) the restructuring of its online channel, and b) the upgrade of its offline franchise stores. Looking ahead, management remains committed to achieving the full-year sales target for the Anta brand, provided that the brand achieves a high single-digit sales growth in 2H25, supported by the initial positive effects from channel adjustments. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$108.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Economic Activity Real GDP growth hit 5.2% yoy in 2Q25, bringing 1H25 growth to 5.3% yoy, as policy support blunted the impact of trade war uncertainties. Retails sales grew 5.0% yoy in 1H25, supported by subsidy schemes, while industrial production rose 6.4% yoy, as demand was partly brought forward ahead of higher tariffs. June data was a mixed bag, and we still expect 2H25 growth to be slower, as higher tariffs bite. However, considering the higher 1H25 growth, we r...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Resilient 1H25 growth of 5.3% yoy belies rising downside pressure. Sector Healthcare Weekly: Gaining strength on robust earnings outlook and pipeline growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Property Property sales and prices weakened further in J...
During the Labour Day holiday (1-5 May), Macau's visitor arrivals significantly beat the government's expectation. Retail and catering sales showed a modest improvement in terms of yoy growth compared with the Chinese New Year holiday, while home appliance sales continued to benefit from the trade-in programme, with premium products demonstrating robust growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the China consumer sector. Our top picks include CR Beer, Mengniu, and Moutai.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
Anta's 1Q25 operations were in line with expectations, with Fila continuing to sustain a good momentum. The company announced that it will acquire German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin at a base price of US$290m, implying a 2025 PS ratio of 0.8x. Management expects the acquisition to further complete the company’s outdoor product portfolio, positioning Jack Wolfskin as a mid-range pricing option in addition to its current brands. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$108.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation March CPI fell 0.1% yoy, up from February’s 0.7% yoy dip as the latter was affected by the Chinese New Year effect. Core CPI did edge higher to 0.5% yoy compared with the average pace of 0.3% yoy over the past three months, driven by higher services inflation. PPI deflation worsened to -2.5% yoy (-0.3ppt), with declines seen in mining and quarrying as well as other raw materials. We opine that the overall pricing power of manufacturers remains weak. Sector ...
Anta’s 2024 revenue beat estimates, but core profit was in line. While slightly revising the Anta brand’s sales target to a high single digit, management lowered Fila’s sales target to a mid single digit and aims to maintain operating margin stable at 25%, given: a) the increasing contribution of online and outlets channels with deeper discounts, and b) the need for investments in product innovations to gain market share amid intense competition. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 10% HK$108.8...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$97.90/Target: HK$108.80) Anta’s 2024 revenue beat estimates, but core profit was in line. While slightly revising the Anta brand’s sales target to a high single digit, management lowered Fila’s sales target to a mid single digit and aims to maintain operating margin stable at 25%, given: a) the increasing contribution of online and outlets channels with deeper discounts, and b) the need for investments in product innovations to gain market sha...
GREATER CHINA Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$97.90/Target: HK$108.80): 2024: Revenue beats estimates but profit in line; lower sales target and conservative margin outlook for Fila. Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$56.35/Target: HK$68.00): 4Q24: Earnings up 34% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. HUTCHMED (China) (13 HK/BUY/HK$23.90/Target: HK$30.00): 2024: Became self-sustainable; Fruquintinib continues to drive growth in 2025. Kerry Properties (683 HK/BUY/HK$18.74/Target:...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.