GREATER CHINA Economics Inflation Deflationary pressures remain. Sector Automobile Weekly: Direct impacts from US tariffs contained; indirect spillovers uncertain. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and Desay SV. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$81.55/Target: HK$108.80) 1Q25 sales me...
Anta's 1Q25 operations were in line with expectations, with Fila continuing to sustain a good momentum. The company announced that it will acquire German outdoor brand Jack Wolfskin at a base price of US$290m, implying a 2025 PS ratio of 0.8x. Management expects the acquisition to further complete the company’s outdoor product portfolio, positioning Jack Wolfskin as a mid-range pricing option in addition to its current brands. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$108.80.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation March CPI fell 0.1% yoy, up from February’s 0.7% yoy dip as the latter was affected by the Chinese New Year effect. Core CPI did edge higher to 0.5% yoy compared with the average pace of 0.3% yoy over the past three months, driven by higher services inflation. PPI deflation worsened to -2.5% yoy (-0.3ppt), with declines seen in mining and quarrying as well as other raw materials. We opine that the overall pricing power of manufacturers remains weak. Sector ...
Anta’s 2024 revenue beat estimates, but core profit was in line. While slightly revising the Anta brand’s sales target to a high single digit, management lowered Fila’s sales target to a mid single digit and aims to maintain operating margin stable at 25%, given: a) the increasing contribution of online and outlets channels with deeper discounts, and b) the need for investments in product innovations to gain market share amid intense competition. Maintain BUY but cut target price by 10% HK$108.8...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$97.90/Target: HK$108.80) Anta’s 2024 revenue beat estimates, but core profit was in line. While slightly revising the Anta brand’s sales target to a high single digit, management lowered Fila’s sales target to a mid single digit and aims to maintain operating margin stable at 25%, given: a) the increasing contribution of online and outlets channels with deeper discounts, and b) the need for investments in product innovations to gain market sha...
GREATER CHINA Results Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$97.90/Target: HK$108.80): 2024: Revenue beats estimates but profit in line; lower sales target and conservative margin outlook for Fila. Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$56.35/Target: HK$68.00): 4Q24: Earnings up 34% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. HUTCHMED (China) (13 HK/BUY/HK$23.90/Target: HK$30.00): 2024: Became self-sustainable; Fruquintinib continues to drive growth in 2025. Kerry Properties (683 HK/BUY/HK$18.74/Target:...
On 16 March, the State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption, aiming to increase spending power by increasing income and reducing financial burdens, generate effective demand through high-quality supply, and improve the consumption environment to strengthen consumers’ willingness to spend. In the China consumer sector, we prefer Anta, CR Beer, Galaxy, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Yili. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Consumption during the CNY demonstrated a satisfactory momentum. Daily average sales revenue of consumer-related industries grew 11% yoy, with the home appliances and furnishing category recording the highest growth rate. Domestic tourism per capita spending increased 1% yoy and recovered to 95% of 2019’s level, and Hainan DF per capita spending rose 4% yoy. Macau visitations recovered to 95% of 2019’s level. In the China consumer space, we prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands Ch...
We do not expect a strong consumption momentum for the upcoming CNY holiday, but expect home appliance, Macau gaming, movie and retail to be the bright spots. We prefer Anta, Haier, Mengniu, Midea, Miniso and Sands in China’s consumer space.
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
Sales momentum of the Anta brand and Fila both improved in 4Q24 compared to 3Q24, in terms of yoy growth, especially for Fila, although both brands fell short of the full-year sales targets. By channel, the performance of the offline channel has normalised. For 2025, management maintains the company’s mid- to long-term sales targets. In addition, the company plans to prioritise Super Anta as the key focus of store innovation in 2025. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$120.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$75.25/Target: HK$120.60) Sales momentum of the Anta brand and Fila both improved in 4Q24 compared to 3Q24, in terms of yoy growth, especially for Fila, although both brands fell short of the full-year sales targets. By channel, the performance of the offline channel has normalised. For 2025, management maintains the company’s mid- to long-term sales targets. In addition, the company plans to prioritise Super Anta as the key focus of store innov...
GREATER CHINA Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$75.25/Target: HK$120.60): Improved 4Q24 sales; Fila the bright spot; mid-to-long term sales targets maintained. Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$284.00/Target: HK$352.00): 4Q24 results preview: Strong earnings growth on reviving turnover. INDONESIA Update Kalbe Farma (KLBF IJ/BUY/Rp1,275/Target: Rp1,800): Higher sales growth in pharma and medical devices expected in 2025. MALAYSIA Sector Gloves: After the stellar share price perfo...
Anta announced its plan to issue €1.5b zero-coupon CBs due 2029 with a conversion price at a 35% premium. Proceeds will be mainly used for repurchase of the existing CBs and additional share buybacks, which will be initiated depending on the execution of the current plan. Qtd operations were in line with expectations despite higher return rates for Double 11 this year. Anta aims to achieve its profit target through strict cost control. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$120.60.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Healthcare Geopolitical tensions and weak economic conditions may cloud 2025’s growth outlook of the CRDMO, medical devices and services segments. However, the biopharma segment will see continued recovery, supported by a lower cost of capital and constant innovative product launches in China and even overseas. Leading internet healthcare players, with stabilising business models, also expect robust revenue growth and improving profitability. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Up...
GREATER CHINA Sector Healthcare: Striving for growth in 2025. Update Anta Sports (2020 HK/BUY/HK$78.25/Target: HK$120.60): Issuance of new CB for refinancing and additional share buybacks; qtd operations meet expectations. China State Construction Engineering Corporation (601668 CH/BUY/Rmb5.96/Target: Rmb6.61): Trim earnings forecast on slower macro recovery; stay positive on 2025 outlook. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Best Pacific International Holdings (2111 HK/NOT RATED/HK$2.89): Takeaways from Vi...
There are ongoing diverging consumption trends in China’s sportswear sector. Consumers remain value-conscious, while outdoor functional wear and niche categories have been gaining momentum. Sportswear companies achieved Double 11 sales in line with internal expectations and discounts improved yoy. However, it is still uncertain on achieving retail sales targets. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. The top pick is Anta given its strong execution and high earnings visibility.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property In the first three weeks of Oct 24, property transactions in Tier 1 cities have yet to fully exceed the volume observed in the three weeks following the 17 May policy combo. The National Day holidays might be a key factor affecting sales. The first-home mortgage rate in Guangzhou fell to 2.75%, and is moving closer to the city's average rental yield of 2.34%. However, we have yet to see further updates on destocking. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Update Li Ning...
Anta’s 3Q24 sales missed management’s expectations, especially Fila, due to the challenging consumption environment in 3Q24. However, sales during the Golden Week exceeded expectations and outperformed the industry, driven by the improving traffic. Management sees it is challenging to fulfil the full-year sales targets. However, they remain confident on the company’s profit level, if both Anta brand and Fila meet the sales targets in 4Q24. Maintain BUY and target price of HK$132.30.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Inflation September consumer price inflation slipped slightly to 0.4% yoy but remained positive for the eighth consecutive month, below Bloomberg consensus of 0.6% yoy. Meanwhile, PPI inflation declined further from -1.8% in August to -2.8% yoy, mainly driven by broad-based price contractions and is lower than Bloomberg consensus of -2.6% yoy. Core CPI inflation fell from 0.3% to 0.1% yoy, reflecting weaker underlying demand. Strategy China Strategy: Providing greate...
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