Equity raise, two more Q1 reports

This week, Nyfosa raised SEK1.7bn in equity, and Citycon and Olav Thon reported their Q1 results. Real estate stocks have performed well globally since the latest US CPI print. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.32% for 2024e and 4.71% for 2025e.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 10 May 2024.

Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

Hufvudstaden (Sell, TP: SEK115.00) - Vacancies on the rise

The Q1 results provided the market with no relief for its concern about the Stockholm office and retail rental market strength, as the company missed on revenues and saw an increased vacancy rate. We have cut our EPS by 5–6% for 2023–2026 and our target price to SEK115 (120), and reiterate our SELL.

Clear increase in vacancies

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - April traffic statistics

We consider this a slightly negative report. For legacy Norwegian Air Shuttle, the yield was slightly below our expectations but with higher PAX, while the Widerøe load and yield missed slightly. We expect 1% negative estimate revision to consensus 2024 EBITDA on the back of the report, and believe a slight negative share price reaction is warranted.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - April traffic statistics p...

The April traffic statistics are due at 08:00 CET on 7 May. We expect Norwegian Air’s figures to be affected by the early timing of Easter and ramp up of capacity ahead of the summer season, forecasting a lower yield and load YOY. We reiterate our BUY and NOK21 target price.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 3 May 2024.

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Schibsted ASA: 1 director

A director at Schibsted ASA sold 14,850 shares at 315.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 80/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly ...

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Just a delay

NMP 3% below, weak outlook and cost-cut delays. Buying the remainder of Finn at a ~28% discount to our SOTP. Still solid value support: SOTP NOK 350/sh. BUY, TP NOK 350 (355).

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Whetting the blade

Schibsted delivered a weak Q1 report, including figures below expectations adjusted for News Media due to higher costs YOY and the withdrawal of the 2024 guidance for Nordic Marketplaces. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price, with negative estimate revisions offset by peer group multiples expansion.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

NP 3% below, cost cuts paused

Q1: Group EBITDA 0% vs cons: NP 3% below. Cost cuts paused until Media separation. Targets paused.

Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Weak Q1 due to higher cost...

Norwegian Air Shuttle traded down c7% on Wednesday on weaker than expected Q1 results hit by higher costs, which made the market question the reiterated 2024 CASK guidance. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK21 (23) on negative estimate revisions, reflecting slightly revised cost assumptions.

ATH profits next

Weak Q1 in a seasonally small quarter, upbeat outlook kept. Unit costs need to improve - key for confidence. '24e EPS down 2.5%. BUY, TP NOK 21.

EPBD the big story this week

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. In other news, KMC Properties bought a new asset and appointed an interim CEO, JM got a new CEO, while Castellum announced a divestment and new leases, and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off Q1 reporting season. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.74% for 2024e and 5.01% for 2...

Renovation rules now a reality

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...

NRC Group (Buy, TP: NOK15.00) - New CEO’s plan in focus

NRC’s Q1s tend to be its low season, due to the Nordic winter effects, and we expect a seasonal loss in EBIT (results due at c07:00 CET on 25 May). However, announced order intake has been strong, including the order termination and excluding the EUR344m light rail alliance contract in Finland. In conjunction with the Q1 results, NRC is due to host a CMD, where the new CEO will present the new group strategy. We continue to see strong upside potential on an EBIT margin recovery and reiterate our...