Comeback kickoff

Q2 better on margins and volumes; earnings mix also strong. Further improvement in coming quarters on margin recovery. Record-low valuation: P/E 12-13x, SOTP at NOK 107/share.

On track

European occupancy continues up. Minor estimate changes for '25e-'26e. Trading above key peers, we reiterate HOLD.

Orkla ASA: 1 director

A director at Orkla ASA bought 12,500 shares at 78.995NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Signs of light

Orkla’s Q1 results were slightly above consensus, with positive developments in volume and gross margin. Nevertheless, we reiterate our HOLD and NOK81 target price, as we continue to find the valuation fair, and we have made only minor estimate revisions.

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

Orkla (Hold, TP: NOK81.00) - Q1 slightly above consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report, including figures above consensus on higher-than-expected organic growth, a slight contribution-margin improvement, and no significant change in outlook. We expect 1–2% positive revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT, and believe a slightly positive share price reaction is warranted.

Q1: EBIT 6% above cons on better margins

Q1: EBIT 6% above cons. We see a strong '24 margin outlook, and the DK turnaround continues positively. Expect limited changes to cons '24e EBIT, but we find the report case-supportive

+450bp gross margin underpins turnaround

A strong start to 2024 with 5-13% divisional profit beats. +450bp gross margin expansion validates turnaround story. BUY on deep values and turnaround, TP DKK 235 (225).

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK250.00) - Gaining confidence in management

The Q1 results beat our expectations and consensus, with c5% organic growth and a 12.5% EBITA margin, driven by the Hearing division, while Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer saw c0% organic revenue growth in still-muted markets. The 2024 guidance was maintained for organic sales growth of 2–8%, an EBITA margin of 12–14%, and FCF of >DKK700m. At the upcoming CMD, we expect focus to be on One-GN and market outlook. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK250 (230).

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/05/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024

We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...

GN Store Nord : Strong hearing aid business, stabilisation at Enterpri...

>Q1 review – Strong beat on bottom line - GN Store Nord achieved Q1 revenues of DKK 4,303m (+2.1% y-o-y, 0%/+1% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q1 adj. EBITA reached DKK 538m (+218% y-o-y, margin 12.5%), which was a strong beat by 35% of our estimates and by 32% vs consensus. EPS reached DKK 1.74 (vs DKK 0.87/0.85 expected). The 2024 guidance is confirmed.GN Hearing - Excellent organic growth on new Nexia platform - GN Hearing’s Q1 revenues of DKK 1,737m (+7....

Growth and margin beat in key business'

A good start to the year

Q1 EPS 7% above, but some special elements. Backlog implies revenue estimates are robust. Strong momentum, high expectations - HOLD.

Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - Solid Maritime margin beat i...

Q1 EBITDA beat our estimate and consensus by 9%, explained by a stronger Maritime (KM) margin than expected. However, as previously guided, the Defence (KD) margin did fall to 17% in this quarter. We have edged our 2025–2026e EPS up 2% after primarily raising our KM margin assumptions, but reiterate our HOLD and NOK780 target price as we believe the stock is already pricing in a possible ramp-up of NATO defence spending to at least 2.5% of GDP for all member states.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 26 April 2024.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

SpareBank1 SR-Bank (Buy, TP: NOK158.00) - Solid growth and asset quali...

With NII remaining at high levels and modest loan losses, SRBNK reported a Q1 ROE of 14.6% versus its >13% target. Following strong lending growth of 2.3% QOQ, the CET1 ratio was flat QOQ, with the bank highlighting cNOK2.5bn synergy potential from the pending merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge. We have made only minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.9x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and NOK158 target price.

In need of a higher ROE

Adj. PTP +10% vs. ABGSCe (lower cost and loan losses). EPS up +6%, +5% and 6% for '24e/25e/26e. Valuation in line with fundamentals: HOLD.