reports
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - 2024 likely to be back-end loaded
We forecast Q1 organic revenue growth of 4.7% YOY (in line with consensus), driven by Hearing Care (we forecast 4.9%) and Diagnostics (we forecast 8.4%), while Hearing Aids faces a tough YOY comparable (we forecast 3.6%). We expect 2024 to be back-end loaded and driven by Oticon Intent. We expect maintained 2024 guidance of 4–8% organic growth, c1% M&A growth, c-1% FX, and EBIT of DKK4.6bn–5.0bn. We reiterate our BUY and DKK400 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Renovation rules now a reality
The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) was approved on 12 April, requiring the modernisation of existing real estate in the EU, and will soon enter the Official Journal of the EU. Member states will have two years to incorporate the provisions into their national legislation. While Q1 is Nordic construction’s low season due to winter effects, we see some downside risk to Q1e consensus and longer-term to 2024–2026e EBIT on lower development gains. We recommend a stock-picking approa...
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK120.00) - Low season ahead
Due to Nordic winter effects, Q1 typically marks low season for Veidekke. We are below consensus on Q1e EBIT, forecasting a low-season nominal loss. We expect reduced long-term civil engineering spending in Norway following publication of the new National Transport Plan (NTP), but with a weaker NOK, our 2024–2026e EPS are broadly unchanged. We have raised our target price to NOK120 (115) to reflect higher peer multiples, but reiterate our HOLD.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK400.00) - Improved long-term outlook
At its CMD, Demant updated its long-term outlook. It now targets 8–10% LCY growth (7–10%) including 6–8%-points organic growth and c2%-points M&A growth, and still sees incremental EBIT margin expansion. It expects the hearing-aid market to grow 4–6% p.a. in value (2–5%), as ASP is now guided fairly flat. We are positive on the Sirius-based Oticon Intent launch. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK400 (375).
- Bruno Cavalier
- Konrad Zomer
AC ACCOR SA
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
SREN SWISS RE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SIK SIKA AG
ADYEN ADYEN NV
- Bruno Cavalier
- Konrad Zomer
AC ACCOR SA
HEIA HEINEKEN NV
SREN SWISS RE AG
SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC SE
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
TEP TELEPERFORMANCE SE
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
EVD CTS EVENTIM AG & CO. KGAA
SIK SIKA AG
ADYEN ADYEN NV
- Oliver Metzger
Demant A/S : Strong performance to continue
>Strong performance to continue - Demant’s Q4 results showed, with an organic growth of 10%, a continuation of the strong performance of previous quarters. On the back of the announced launch of the new hearing aid platform Oticon Intega, we expect that the market share gains in the hearing aid segment will continue also in 2024. Our organic growth forecast for 2024 stands at 7.4% (guidance 4-8%) for the company driven by an expected 8.0% for the hearing aid wholesale...
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK115.00) - Good Q4, but M&A likely needed for EP...
Q4 revenues beat our estimate and consensus, but order backlog was reduced more than expected. In our view, EBIT margins were the biggest positive, exceeding expectations for most divisions. However, with the order backlog down 2% YOY at end-2023, we see limited growth for 2024–2025e. While the EV/EBIT and dividend yield remain attractive, we consider the P/E fair. In our view, the main potential catalyst is a return of EPS growth, driven by M&A. Near-term, we find the valuation fair, and reiter...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 02/06/2024
Today we are adding CRH to the ODDO BHF European Large Caps Convictions List. It is exposed to the US economy, which we believe will continue to outperform the European economy, as borne out by the very robust job creation figures released last Friday. CRH generates 75% of its EBITDA in the 10 fastest-growing US states, and also has positive technical catalysts such as its future inclusion in the S&P TMI and Russell 1000 indices. - ...
- Martin Marandon-Carlhian
- Stephane Houri
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 06/02/2024
Nous faisons rentrer aujourd’hui CRH dans notre liste de valeurs recommandées Large Caps. Elle est exposée à l’économie américaine qui va continuer ,selon nous, de se montrer plus dynamique que l’économie européenne, comme en ont attesté les très bons chiffres de création d’emploi vendredi dernier. Elle réalise 75% de son EBITDA dans les 10 Etats américains à plus forte croissance et dispose en outre de catalyseurs techniques positifs comme sa future entrée dans les indices S&P TMI et...
- Oliver Metzger
Demant A/S : Strong organic growth continues – 2024 guidance implies s...
>Q4 review - Demant’s Q4 revenues of DKK 5,885m (+10.1% y-o-y, in line with expectations) were driven by strong organic growth of 10% (ODDO BHF/consensus 8%/10%). Hearing healthcare was up 12% organically, driven by an increase of 16% at Hearing aids, while Hearing care and Diagnostics were up 8%, respectively. Communication declined by 25% organically. H2 EBIT of DKK 2,134m (+31.8% y-o-y, margin 18.9%) was -6%/-1% below expectations. EPS of DKK 5.81 was a miss of exp...
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK375.00) - Communication follow Implants out
The 2023 guidance was reached but with sales and EBIT at the low end. The guidance for 2024 was strong: organic revenue growth of 4–8% YOY and EBIT of DKK4,600m–5,000m. We view the potential divestment of EPOS and management’s comments on the imminent launch of Oticon Intent as positives for the growth and earnings outlooks. We reiterate our BUY, and have increased our target price to DKK375 (355).
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK355.00) - 2024 set to be a normalised year
We believe investor focus will be less on the H2 results and more on 2024 guidance. We expect the guidance to be for 3–7% YOY organic revenue growth, c2% M&A revenue growth, a c1% FX headwind, and EBIT of DKK4,400m–4,800m. We believe H2 2023 is set for high market unit growth above the 4–6% structural growth rate on easy comparables, while 2024e looks more normalised at c5% unit growth. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to DKK355 (335).
- Simen Mortensen
Renovation regulation approaching
The ‘trilogue’ process regarding the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) that aims to double renovation rates of commercial and residential properties has been concluded, and the new legislative text is due to be published in spring 2024. Also, the recent pivot in market interest rates has improved the sector outlook, but with long profit lead times. Names with high short interest (JM and SBO) have rallied the recently, but we believe the current valuation underestimates the profit ...
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Shy of Q4e consensus on EBIT
While we are in line with Infront consensus on revenues, we are 5% below on EBIT, as we believe the Q4 2022 divestment gain of NOK130m may have raised Q4 2023 consensus despite being a one-off. Announced orders have held up well despite weak markets, and look set to reach an all-time high in 2023. A reduced market forecast has led us to trim our
- Simen Mortensen
Political agreement for EPBD
Yesterday evening saw a political agreement and the conclusion of the final trilogue meeting on EPBD revisions. There are some revisions to earlier drafts, but EU member states will now prepare requirements for lower energy building stocks. We believe that once in place this regulation should be a positive for construction companies, but CAPEX for real estate companies.
Evolution AB: 1 director
A director at Evolution AB bought 99,787 shares at 1,002.143SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...
- Simen Mortensen
Veidekke (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Q3 beat, but weaker backlog
The Q3 results beat our estimates and Infront consensus, largely due to the Other segment, with a gain on financial assets; hence, a large part of the beat was not operational. However, Veidekke continues to transform in a challenging building market, which boosted EBT above expectations. We have trimmed our 2024e EPS on the weaker-than-expected order backlog and reiterate our HOLD and NOK105 target price.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Demant (Buy, TP: DKK335.00) - Wholesale drives top-line growth
Q3 saw organic revenue growth of c13% YOY, driven by Hearing Aids, while Communications was hurt by weak underlying markets. Winding down the gaming segment will cost an additional DKK50m–100m. The 2023 guidance was narrowed to 12–13% organic revenue growth and DKK4,050m–4,350m in EBIT. Demant did not resume its share buybacks, which we see as a disappointment. We reiterate our BUY and DKK335 target price.
- Oliver Metzger
Demant A/S : Q3 review – another strong quarter
>Q3 review – another strong quarter - Demant’s Q3 revenues of DKK 5,403m (+11.1% y-o-y) were driven by impressive organic growth of 13% (vs ODDO BHF 12%/consensus 13%) and were 1% below expectations due to forex headwinds. No bottom line was reported on a quarterly basis.Hearing aids show strong performance - Hearing aids sales of DKK 2,430m (+23% y-o-y) benefited from very impressive organic growth of 25% (external sales), well ahead of our forecast ...
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