Oncopeptides AB: 2 directors

A director at Oncopeptides AB bought 56,820 shares at 4.400SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearl...

Q1'25: no signs of commercial inflection

Electrolux AB: 1 director

A director at Electrolux AB bought 20,000 shares at 61.310SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.00) - Softer-than-expected earnings

Although Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, operating expenses were higher (partly due to borderline one-off costs; R&D-related for an EMA facility inspection). We have lowered our sales forecasts for Pepaxti in Europe. However, we believe 2025 will be important for the company, as sales should start to ramp up in Italy and Spain. We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK2.0 (2.5).

Q4 report: weak upward trend

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK102.00) - Uncertainty and pressure remain

Following the Q4 results, uncertainty remains high on the timing and extent of a demand recovery, possible strategic changes by the new CEO and the effect of potential US tariffs. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK102 (92) on lower financial costs, stronger FX tailwinds, and rolling-forward effects.

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK92.00) - Uncertainty remains high

In Q4, we forecast similar demand and market dynamics to Q3, with consumer downtrading, elevated promotional activity, a negative mix, price pressure, and weak consumer demand weighing on sales and EBIT. We expect a sales decline of 1.6% YOY (organic growth of 2.6%) and an adj. EBIT margin of 3.2%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK92 (94).

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK2.50) - Germany leads Q3 sales miss

Q3 sales were roughly half the level we expected – admittedly from a small base, but still a concern for us, since the miss was led by Germany, with much slower growth than recently. However, operating expenses were also less than we forecast, leaving an operating loss of SEK61m, a fraction better than our cSEK-63m. End-Q3 cash was SEK250m, which the company said would see it to positive cash flow in 2026e. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK2.5 (4.5) on increased uncertain...

Q3 report: weak Germany weighs on sales

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK94.00) - North America under pressure

Following the Q3 results, we have less confidence in an earnings recovery in the North American businesses, with price pressure looking set to persist until more favourable tariffs are in place. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK94(102) on greater uncertainty about performance in North America.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK4.50) - Sales set to be in focus

Q2 Pepaxti sales missed our estimate (SEK8.2m versus SEK10m); however, strong cash flow included a one-off (although this will be reversed in Q3), and reported end-quarter cash was higher than we forecast (adj. cash was cSEK278m, lower than we forecast). The company said adj. cash should be sufficient to take it to positive cash flow (which it still expects late-2026). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to SEK4.50 (5.50) on the back of our estimate changes.

Q2 report: Slowly gaining market access

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Step in the right direction

Following the Q2 results, we have greater confidence in the company getting its North American businesses under better control while continuing to benefit from a demand recovery in Latin America in H2 and into 2025. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK100 (96).

Electrolux Minor model adjustments

We have updated our 2024 estimates, as we forecast stronger end-market headwinds in North America in Q2 than previously expected. The results are due at c08.00 CET on 19 July. Our 2024–2026 sales estimate changes are primarily due to FX movements. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our HOLD recommendation. We have lowered our target price from SEK98 to SEK96.

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK5.50) - Financial stability achieved

In line with the pre-announcement, sales were cSEK5m in Q1, while the EBIT loss was less than we forecast on lower operating costs. The company reiterated its 2026 guidance and stated that its financial position after the rights issue should take it all the way to cash-flow positivity. We reinstate a recommendation with a BUY and SEK5.5 target price.

Q1 report: on the journey towards profitability

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK98.00) - Next chapter

The outlook remains weak and we now expect Electrolux to be loss-making in 2024. However, CEO Jonas Samuelson’s resignation opens up for large-scale restructuring, which we deem necessary to move the EBIT margin closer to its ≥6% target and reduce the all-time high net debt. We have raised our sales and earnings estimates and cut our net debt assumptions after 2026, as we believe a new CEO could improve the sales, earnings and leverage trajectory over time. We have therefore upgraded to HOLD (SE...

Electrolux (Sell, TP: SEK80.00) - Weak Q1 expected

We forecast similar demand and market dynamics in Q1 to Q4, with consumer downtrading, elevated promotional activity, lower volumes YOY, negative mix effects and price pressure, and weak consumer demand weighing on sales and EBIT for the quarter. We expect -9% sales growth (-8% organic) and an adj. EBIT margin of -2.7%, down 360bp YOY. We reiterate our SELL and SEK80 target price.