Electrolux AB: 1 director

A director at Electrolux AB sold 24,516 shares at 96.780SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK98.00) - Next chapter

The outlook remains weak and we now expect Electrolux to be loss-making in 2024. However, CEO Jonas Samuelson’s resignation opens up for large-scale restructuring, which we deem necessary to move the EBIT margin closer to its ≥6% target and reduce the all-time high net debt. We have raised our sales and earnings estimates and cut our net debt assumptions after 2026, as we believe a new CEO could improve the sales, earnings and leverage trajectory over time. We have therefore upgraded to HOLD (SE...

Electrolux (Sell, TP: SEK80.00) - Weak Q1 expected

We forecast similar demand and market dynamics in Q1 to Q4, with consumer downtrading, elevated promotional activity, lower volumes YOY, negative mix effects and price pressure, and weak consumer demand weighing on sales and EBIT for the quarter. We expect -9% sales growth (-8% organic) and an adj. EBIT margin of -2.7%, down 360bp YOY. We reiterate our SELL and SEK80 target price.

Oncopeptides (No_rec, TP: SEK) - Rights issue announced

Oncopeptides this morning announced plans for a cSEK300m fully guaranteed rights issue. This should not come as a surprise to the market as the company was very clear in its Q4 report that it had financial resources to last into Q2 2024. Due to DNB Markets’ role in the rights issue, we have withdrawn our target price and recommendation.

Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK5.50) - US not an option, focus on Europe

In line with our base-case scenario, the FDA has withdrawn the accelerated approval for Pepaxto in the US. As a result, the focus is now growth in Europe, where it has full approval. Q4 earnings were weaker than we expected, but we believe the sales trend is moving in the right direction. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to SEK5.5 (7).

Electrolux (Sell, TP: SEK80.00) - Situation remains tough

With tough underlying market conditions looking likely to continue, an increased risk of the asset-sale programme dragging out in time and achieving lower prices, and Electrolux missing its 2023 cost-saving target, we reiterate our SELL and have cut our target price to SEK80 (85).

Electrolux Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to minor adjustments to divisional sales and adj. EBIT in Q4 2023e (results due at c08:00 CET on 2 February). We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our SELL recommendation. We reiterate our SEK85 target price.

Electrolux (Sell, TP: SEK85.00) - The start to a tough 2024

Following the Q4 profit warning, we reiterate our SELL and have lowered our target price to SEK85 (90). We view the profit warning as further proof of how tough 2024 looks set to be for Electrolux, resulting especially from weak performance in North America and Europe, however it does not change our near-term outlook materially.

Electrolux (Sell, TP: SEK90.00) - Mounting headwinds in Q4

We expect consumer downtrading, elevated promotional activity, a less positive seasonality effect, and price pressure with weak consumer demand for discretionary categories to weigh on Q4 sales and EBIT. We reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to SEK90 (85) based on the marginally more positive profitability outlook.

Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK7.00) - Europe launch progressing

Q3 sales were slightly below our forecast. However, Q4 seems to be off to a good start (almost as many vials sold in October as in Q3). A new official price is in place in Germany, with which Oncopeptides is satisfied (we had expected a higher price). The company said its liquidity would take it to end-Q2 next year, and thus we believe the financial risks are increasing. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK7 (8.5).

Electrolux (Sell, TP: SEK85.00) - Set for tough times ahead

Following the Q3 results and a change of analyst, we have downgraded Electrolux to SELL (HOLD) and cut our target price to SEK85 (135). We expect hampered performance on tougher market conditions and pressure on profitability and the balance sheet, and believe a near-term turnaround in North America looks challenging.

Northern Lights

Oncopeptides (Hold, TP: SEK8.50) - Downgraded to HOLD

Q2 product sales were in line with our forecast; however, we believe a Pepaxti roll-out in Europe will take longer than previously anticipated and that a potential Type 2 variation is now of less value. Oncopeptides is appealing the FDA’s formal request for the withdrawal of Pepaxto from the US market, and expects a response from the agency in H2. We have cut our target price to SEK8.5 (15) (our target price includes potential dilution from future share issues). Given the limited potential upsid...

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK135.00) - Stay on the side-lines

The Q2 report was bleak. More worryingly, we expect weak earnings for the coming quarters too despite cost savings and easing raw material costs, due to price pressure, weak consumer spending, consumers shifting down, and weak residential construction activity hitting demand for high-margin products. We have cut our adj. EPS by 70% for 2023e and 15% for 2024e. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK135 (160).

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK160.00) - Turning the page

The past year would probably not be described positively in the potential memoirs of Electrolux’s CEO. However, the worst should be behind us, and we expect the company to gradually improve in the coming quarters. Q2 should be a step in the right direction, with North America possibly becoming profitable again. However, weak consumer spending in many regions and intensified price promotions cast uncertainty over the speed of the potential turnaround. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK160 target...

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK15.00) - Growing its market presence

Oncopeptides reported its Q1 results on 4 May. Sales, but also operating expenses, were lower than we expected (mainly due to a repayment of R&D costs). The company said its plan, based on the activities in Europe only, would take it to profitability in 2026, one year later than we initially expected. Our forecasts include additional capital raises in 2023 and 2024 (and the corresponding dilution). Based on our forecast adjustments, we reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK15 (22...

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK160.00) - The patient is recovering

The Q1 results indicate that H2 2022 was the trough in earnings, and the company seems to be on track for a continued earnings recovery. However, as is the case with recuperating patients, this recovery is delicate and setbacks may arise. Intensified price promotion and persistent weak demand could result in considerable pressure on earnings, while the net debt reaches an all-time high in a less-favourable interest rate environment. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK1...

Still going strong

Although reported EU taxonomy alignment for the sector is low, we have identified which companies screen best and could benefit from attracting ESG capital. We still favour China, mining, energy and aftermarket exposure, and see upside potential to consensus estimates, but view overall risk/reward as neutral on elevated valuation.

Northern Lights

Oncopeptides (Buy, TP: SEK22.00) - First Pepaxti sales in Europe

Oncopeptides reported an operating loss in Q4, but also booked the first (limited) sales of Pepaxti in Germany. However, we expect a slow ramp up given sales and marketing activities and launch “pressure testing” are ongoing; as a result we have cut our Pepaxti sales growth forecasts. In addition, we now assume Oncopeptides will go it alone rather than out-license Pepaxti. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to SEK22 (28).