reports
- Wim Hoste
Umicore Feedback FY25 results conference call
Below are the highlights from the conference call. We remind that FY25 adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% to 847m, slightly above the high end of the 790-840m guidance range (in line with KBCS estimate, 1% above consensus). The company did not give a precise guidance on FY26 although sounded cautious on developments in the EV industry. The strong metal price environment will partly be offset by lower hedging levels for 2026 and maintenance, while new longer term hedges generate additional earnings...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Lynn Hautekeete
Cofinimmo FY25 results above expectations, guidance below
Cofinimmo reports recurring EPRA EPS +1,1% above our estimates and 4,0% above its guidance. The earnings beat is driven by higher like-for-like rental income at +2,9%. The EPRA EPS outlook of FY26 is below our estimates at € 6,35 vs € 6,39 KBCSe. The guided debt ratio at YE26 is 340 bps higher than our expectations at 44,0% due to only € 110,0m guided asset disposals and higher than expected investments at € 310,0m which will mainly impact FY27/28 rental income. In the medium term, the focus sho...
- Wim Hoste
Umicore FY25 adj EBITDA +11%, no precise FY26 guidance
FY25 adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% to 847m, slightly above the high end of the 790-840m guidance range (in line with KBCS estimate, 1% above consensus). The company did not give a precise guidance on FY26 although sounded cautious on developments in the EV industry. The strong metal price environment will partly be offset by lower hedging levels for 2026 and maintenance, while new longer term hedges generate additional earnings visibility at very attractive levels for a longer period of time....
- Kristof Samoy
Arcadis Key take-aways analyst call
This morning Arcadis reported numbers (as written in a separate FRN) that were disappointing. Only the Resilience GBA and the cash collection process delivered in 4Q25. The sharp revenue revision for 2026 came as a cold surprise but the new CFO delivered on his cash collection commitment made late 2025. Together with the CEO nominee he outlaid a hands-on, pragmatic approach for a return to meaningful topline and margin growth. However this will be (again) back-end loaded in 2026 and mainly reali...
- Wim Lewi
VGP FY25 results come a bit short, a new JV partner compensates
VGP reported FY25 net profit of EUR €290.4m vs. €373.6m expected, mainly due to non-EPRA financial costs in the JV. The recurrent earnings also came up short with €139m vs. our estimated €180m, mainly on €30m lower realized gains and €22m higher interest costs. Unrealized gains were strong at €183.0m vs. €185.2m expected. This indicates that the FV uplift is related to sound development activity. The NTA per share rose 9.1%. New leases signed amounted to €56.9m. FY25 completions at 494k sqm vs. ...
- Guy Sips
Materialise FIRST LOOK : 4Q25 results
We will update our model as Materialise expects FY26 to grow to a range of €273m to €283m (KBCSe € 282.5m). Materialise will continue investing in its Materialise Medical and Software segments while maintaining disciplined cost control and optimization, in particular in its Materialise Manufacturing segment and in its overhead. As a result, Materialise expects its FY26 Adj EBIT to reach € 10m to € 12m (KBCSe € 14.5m). FY25 revenue remained stable at € 267.6m (KBCSe € 269.3m), fuelled by stron...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Zealand Pharma FY25 results: Looking forward to petrelintide phase 2 d...
Zealand reported FY25 results, ending the year with cash of DKK 15,109m (YE24: DKK 9,022m), reinforcing the strong balance sheet. OPEX increased to DKK 2,101m (FY24: 1,324m) driven by increased R&D spending related to the ongoing petrelintide phase 2 trials. For FY26, Zealand guides OPEX of DKK 2,700-3,300m, due to continued investment in the petrelintide franchise. We look forward to the read-out of the petrelintide phase 2 trial in obesity expected in 1Q26, which could confirm petrelintide's p...
- Kristof Samoy
Arcadis First look: Only Resilience & cash collection delivered in 4Q2...
Arcadis released a disappointing set. Only Resilience posted an inline performance. Growth in Places in 4Q was -13% while our scenario was counting on a stabilisation (o% y/y). 4Q Traction in Mobility did not materialise as expected. Company guides for a transitional 2026 with flat growth well below our and css est. . Thanks to strong cash collection FCF was a clear positive surprise. Analyst call at 2pm CET. We will adjust our 2026 numbers downwards to the issued guidance. Hold.
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Lynn Hautekeete
Ascencio 1Q26 trading update: No mention of Carrefour exit in report
Ascencio reports EPRA earnings in line with our expectations. Rental income came in slightly below due to a 60 bps increase in vacancy at an unknown Walloon site requiring repositioning. In its report, Ascencio hints at further acquisitions as it feels comfortable at its 41,4% debt ratio (before dividend payment, incl. € 22,8m acquisition). There is no mention of Carrefour in its trading update. Carrefour has 4,4% of Ascencio's contractual rents. The assets are on average 22,5% overrented. Hence...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Hyloris Valacyclovir oral suspension is delayed
Hyloris provided an update regarding the review of valacyclovir for oral suspension which had a PDUFA target action date of 12 October 2025. It appears that the FDA identified significant inspection observations at the third party manufacturing plant in Greece. The manufacturer confirmed that it is actively implementing its remediation plans. Currently, Hyloris believes that resolution of the manufacturing situation is required to obtain an FDA product approval and is working on a solution. We r...
- Guy Sips
Kinepolis Group Lower results, as expected, impacted by less visitors ...
Against the backdrop of ongoing restructuring and recapitalization in Hollywood, Kinepolis received in FY25 -5.8% y/y visitors or 30.7m, down. Kinepolis Group indicated that -although 2025 saw some notable successes- mainly in the animation and horror genres, the year was affected by a less favourable comparison base, partly due to the exceptional success of 'Inside Out 2' and several French films in 2024. We maintain our positive stance (Buy, € 42 Target Price) as Kinepolis highlighted that F...
- Wim Hoste
AB InBev Pouring beer and returning cash
Whilst ABI's beer volumes have been impacted in the past three years by a mix of country-specific and broader affordability issues and possibly also a changing attitude towards alcohol consumption in some mature markets, we see green shoots and expect volume growth to resume this year, which should support investor sentiment. We still see ABI as the undisputed leader in the beer space, with leading market shares in many of the world's largest profit pools, ongoing digitization and premiumization...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Zealand Pharma Positive phase 1a data for Kv1.3 channel blocker
Zealand Pharma reported positive phase 1a topline results for the Kv1.3 channel blocker ZP9830. Single ascending doses of ZP9830 were well tolerated, with no serious or severe adverse events or dose-limiting safety findings, and PK/PD profile was in-line with predictions. We view these data as de-risking for the program and look forward to the MAD data expected in 2H26, which should provide insight into extended exposure and additional proof of mechanism. Given the selective expression of Kv1.3 ...
- Guy Sips
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
Dynamic Top Pick List update Removing Aedifica
We remove Aedifica from our Dynamic Top Pick list after we updated our model after the FY25 reporting. Since we upgraded Aedifica early November from Hold to Buy, it outperformed the EPRA developed index by 15,1%. We expect the momentum to continue on a positive outcome from the initial exchange period and a potential MSCI inclusion. However we see limited upside to our € 80,0 fair value so we cut our recommendation from BUY to ACCUMULATE.
- Lynn Hautekeete
Aedifica Model update FY25 results:
We update our model after the FY25 results. We now factor in a slightly higher debt ratio at similar FY26 EPRA EPS estimates based on the € 300,0m newly guided investments (acquisitions + developments) which are skewed to 2H26. This benefits mostly our FY27-28 rental income. The Armonea (Colisée) negotiations (7,0% combined total rents) are terminated with limited negative rent reversion impact included in the FY26 guidance. This results in a lower risk premium and a higher target price from € 7...
- Guy Sips
Barco Key question ahead: Is the order slowdown temporary?
Barco's FY25 results were broadly in line with market expectations, demonstrating the company's ability to grow sales and margins despite a challenging macro environment. However, the performance also revealed vulnerabilities—most notably a significant decline in order intake and a sharp reduction in the order book, both of which signal weakening forward demand and warrant close attention. Cinema was the strongest division, while Healthcare underperformed. EBITDA slightly exceeded expectations,...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Inventiva FIRST LOOK: preliminary FY25 results hold no surprises
Inventiva reported preliminary FY25 results which hold no surprises, and confirmed its cash-runway guidance, which following the € 149m capital raise announced in November 2025, extends the company's runway to middle of 1Q27. This provides funding beyond the expected topline results from the phase 3 (NATiV3) trial of lanifibranor in MASH which are expected in 2H26. We reiterate our Buy rating and € 7 TP.
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