reports
- Thibault Leneeuw
Azelis Model update
After revising our estimates post FY25 results we lower our estimates. For 2026 we lower our revenue estimates as we expect lower organic growth, lower acquisitional growth and more FX headwinds. The impact on the gross profit margin is modest while we anticipate more pressure on the EBITA margins. However, we see significant upside as the current valuation is based on compressed estimates and multiples. Our DCF valuation and multiple approach result in a fair value of € 15 per share. Therefore,...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
Amoéba Transforming into an industrial and commercial company by end F...
Amoéba stated that in FY25, major regulatory and commercial milestones have laid the groundwork for commercialisation in FY26. We maintain our positive stance (Buy, € 1.5 TP) as after FY25 marked by intense regulatory and pre-commercial activity (both in biocontrol and cosmetics, as well as recognition from agricultural and wine-growing professionals), FY26 could be a turning point for Amoéba, marking its transformation into an industrial and commercial company. This change is based on the lates...
- Wim Hoste
Solvay FIRST LOOK: 4Q25 soft but in line with consensus, cautious FY26...
4Q uEBITDA dropped by c. 30% organ. and was in line with CSS and c. 5% below our forecast. FY26 uEBITDA guidance of € 770-850m represents a 4-13% y/y decline and is at midpoint c. 2% below consensus and 7% below our forecast. The dividend policy (stable to increasing from a € 2.43 base) looks increasingly generous as the FY26 FCF will not be enough to service the dividend and will hence push up leverage from the current 1.8x. Despite the attractive dividend yield (c 9%), the tough market conditi...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Galapagos FY25 results hold no surprises
Galapagos reported FY25 results with a cash position of € 3bn (YE24: € 3,317.8m) and an updated outlook, where it expects to end FY26 with € 2,775 - € 2,850m in cash, and to incur costs of € 125-175m related to the winddown of the cell therapy business. Looking ahead, the company will focus its strategy on building a new pipeline through BD. € 37 TP and ACCUMULATE maintained.
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Lewi
- Kristof Samoy
Arcadis Risk/Reward Not Yet Compelling in a Derating Sector
Arcadis surprised the market last week with weak FY results and disappointing 2026 guidance. We have overhauled our model and revisited our investment case. The repositioning of GBA Places announced after the IBI & DPS acquisitions in 2022 is not (yet) delivering the intended benefits, while the strategic shift toward large, higher margin projects is coinciding with slower and less predictable backlog conversion. With organic growth absent, the previously compelling deep discount valuation versu...
- Michiel Declercq
Ahold Delhaize Sharpening Value for Customers While Safeguarding Margi...
Earlier this month, Ahold Delhaize reported strong 4Q25 results, driven by a material margin beat in the US and impressive free cash flow generation. While the 2026 margin outlook was in line with expectations, we believe the company is well positioned to deliver on this guidance supported by the impact of the 53rd calendar week, easier comparables in Europe, and the gradual realisation of synergies from the Profi acquisition. In the US, ongoing price investments continue to drive healthy sales ...
- Wim Hoste
Umicore Feedback FY25 results conference call
Below are the highlights from the conference call. We remind that FY25 adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% to 847m, slightly above the high end of the 790-840m guidance range (in line with KBCS estimate, 1% above consensus). The company did not give a precise guidance on FY26 although sounded cautious on developments in the EV industry. The strong metal price environment will partly be offset by lower hedging levels for 2026 and maintenance, while new longer term hedges generate additional earnings...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Lynn Hautekeete
Cofinimmo FY25 results above expectations, guidance below
Cofinimmo reports recurring EPRA EPS +1,1% above our estimates and 4,0% above its guidance. The earnings beat is driven by higher like-for-like rental income at +2,9%. The EPRA EPS outlook of FY26 is below our estimates at € 6,35 vs € 6,39 KBCSe. The guided debt ratio at YE26 is 340 bps higher than our expectations at 44,0% due to only € 110,0m guided asset disposals and higher than expected investments at € 310,0m which will mainly impact FY27/28 rental income. In the medium term, the focus sho...
- Wim Hoste
Umicore FY25 adj EBITDA +11%, no precise FY26 guidance
FY25 adjusted EBITDA increased by 11% to 847m, slightly above the high end of the 790-840m guidance range (in line with KBCS estimate, 1% above consensus). The company did not give a precise guidance on FY26 although sounded cautious on developments in the EV industry. The strong metal price environment will partly be offset by lower hedging levels for 2026 and maintenance, while new longer term hedges generate additional earnings visibility at very attractive levels for a longer period of time....
- Kristof Samoy
Arcadis Key take-aways analyst call
This morning Arcadis reported numbers (as written in a separate FRN) that were disappointing. Only the Resilience GBA and the cash collection process delivered in 4Q25. The sharp revenue revision for 2026 came as a cold surprise but the new CFO delivered on his cash collection commitment made late 2025. Together with the CEO nominee he outlaid a hands-on, pragmatic approach for a return to meaningful topline and margin growth. However this will be (again) back-end loaded in 2026 and mainly reali...
- Wim Lewi
VGP FY25 results come a bit short, a new JV partner compensates
VGP reported FY25 net profit of EUR €290.4m vs. €373.6m expected, mainly due to non-EPRA financial costs in the JV. The recurrent earnings also came up short with €139m vs. our estimated €180m, mainly on €30m lower realized gains and €22m higher interest costs. Unrealized gains were strong at €183.0m vs. €185.2m expected. This indicates that the FV uplift is related to sound development activity. The NTA per share rose 9.1%. New leases signed amounted to €56.9m. FY25 completions at 494k sqm vs. ...
- Guy Sips
Materialise FIRST LOOK : 4Q25 results
We will update our model as Materialise expects FY26 to grow to a range of €273m to €283m (KBCSe € 282.5m). Materialise will continue investing in its Materialise Medical and Software segments while maintaining disciplined cost control and optimization, in particular in its Materialise Manufacturing segment and in its overhead. As a result, Materialise expects its FY26 Adj EBIT to reach € 10m to € 12m (KBCSe € 14.5m). FY25 revenue remained stable at € 267.6m (KBCSe € 269.3m), fuelled by stron...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Zealand Pharma FY25 results: Looking forward to petrelintide phase 2 d...
Zealand reported FY25 results, ending the year with cash of DKK 15,109m (YE24: DKK 9,022m), reinforcing the strong balance sheet. OPEX increased to DKK 2,101m (FY24: 1,324m) driven by increased R&D spending related to the ongoing petrelintide phase 2 trials. For FY26, Zealand guides OPEX of DKK 2,700-3,300m, due to continued investment in the petrelintide franchise. We look forward to the read-out of the petrelintide phase 2 trial in obesity expected in 1Q26, which could confirm petrelintide's p...
- Kristof Samoy
Arcadis First look: Only Resilience & cash collection delivered in 4Q2...
Arcadis released a disappointing set. Only Resilience posted an inline performance. Growth in Places in 4Q was -13% while our scenario was counting on a stabilisation (o% y/y). 4Q Traction in Mobility did not materialise as expected. Company guides for a transitional 2026 with flat growth well below our and css est. . Thanks to strong cash collection FCF was a clear positive surprise. Analyst call at 2pm CET. We will adjust our 2026 numbers downwards to the issued guidance. Hold.
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Lynn Hautekeete
Ascencio 1Q26 trading update: No mention of Carrefour exit in report
Ascencio reports EPRA earnings in line with our expectations. Rental income came in slightly below due to a 60 bps increase in vacancy at an unknown Walloon site requiring repositioning. In its report, Ascencio hints at further acquisitions as it feels comfortable at its 41,4% debt ratio (before dividend payment, incl. € 22,8m acquisition). There is no mention of Carrefour in its trading update. Carrefour has 4,4% of Ascencio's contractual rents. The assets are on average 22,5% overrented. Hence...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Hyloris Valacyclovir oral suspension is delayed
Hyloris provided an update regarding the review of valacyclovir for oral suspension which had a PDUFA target action date of 12 October 2025. It appears that the FDA identified significant inspection observations at the third party manufacturing plant in Greece. The manufacturer confirmed that it is actively implementing its remediation plans. Currently, Hyloris believes that resolution of the manufacturing situation is required to obtain an FDA product approval and is working on a solution. We r...
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