reports
- Wim Hoste
Bekaert Model update – Cash is king
We lowered our forecasts following the FY25 underlying EBIT margin guidance adjustment (from an 8-8.5% range to c. 8%), whilst welcoming the return to positive volume growth in 3Q. Bekaert has been struggling to grow recently as many of its important end markets (like automotive & construction) are inherently mature whilst some of the growth areas have not been living up to expectations (e.g. green hydrogen). Management is also looking at M&A to accelerate growth, but sizeable M&A is having a to...
- Jacob Mekhael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Lynn Hautekeete
Basic-Fit VAT from 6% to 12% on sports in Belgium
Yesterday, the Belgian federal government announced an agreement on the federal budget, which includes raising VAT on sports subscriptions from 6.0% to 12.0%. The BeNeLux region remains Basic-Fit's key profit driver, delivering a 46.5% EBITDA less rent margin in 1H25 compared to 12.0% across its other markets. For Belgium, we forecast FY25 revenue of approximately €250 million and underlying EBITDA less rent of €115 million. If the additional 6.0% VAT is absorbed without price adjustments, this ...
- Jacob Mekhael
Autolus Upping our Aucatzyl sales estimates in r/r ALL
Last week, Autolus reported 3Q25 results. Autolus reported 3Q25 sales of $21.1m, bringing the total for 9M25 to $51m. In our launch preview published in January 2025, we estimated Aucatzyl could generate $43m in FY25 sales vs. $37m CSS estimate. Ours and CSS initial estimates turned out to be conservative given that Aucatzyl generated $51m in 9M25. As such, we increase our Aucatzyl FY25 sales estimate in the US to $72.5m, and increase our peak market share to 50% (from 40%) supported by strong i...
- Wim Lewi
VGP Model update, recurrent EPS increases with pipeline acceleration
At the 10m25 update, VGP gave optimistic guidance on its pipeline and JV closings as it completes projects over 2H25 and 1H26. VGP differs from most REITS due to its JV-structure. Initially it develops for its own portfolio and recycles the capital afterwards by selling into a JV. Hence, VGP realises valuation gains in 2 stages. First, at the start of the asset construction as an unrealised gain estimated by experts (not included in EPRA EPS). Secondly, as the asset is transferred to a JV on the...
- Wim Lewi
Switch on the Robots Automation and Energy Investments in Logistic/Ind...
Automation and Energy investments increase the value per sqm of landbank. Tenants are inclined to sign longer lease contracts to protect their significant investments. We expect to see more large warehouse automation projects over the next 12-18 months as the ROI increases thanks to technological innovations. The decision process seems to take longer due to the size of the investments. We believe the logistic segment offers an interesting investment opportunity. WDP trades at only 3% premium...
- Jacob Mekhael
Onward Medical Uneventful 3Q25 results, pivotal Empower BP trial to st...
Onward reported its 3Q25 results, which show no major surprises as the company previously announced the sale of 40 devices in the US in a preliminary update. With a cash position of € 77.7m, Onward is funded into 1Q27 assuming no drawdown of its debt facility. In the pipeline, timelines were reiterated and the company continues to expect to initiate the pivotal Empower BP trial of the ARC-IM system in blood pressure instability by YE25, which means interim results could come in 2H26. We reiterat...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Sequana Medical Announces first US sale of the alfapump
Sequana reported the first US commercial alfapump implant at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York. This important milestone shows the demand for the alfapump in the US. We adjust our TP from € 2.8 to € 2.7 to reflect the new share count and reiterate our BUY rating.
- Jacob Mekhael
Inventiva 9M25 results show all is on track
Inventiva reported 9M25 results which hold no surprises, and confirmed its recently updated cash runway guidance, which following the € 149m capital raise announced in November 2025, extends the company's runway to end of 1Q27 (previously end of 3Q26). This provides funding beyond the expected topline results from the phase 3 (NATiV3) trial of lanifibranor in MASH which are expected in 2H26. We update our model for the additional cash and shares (185m outstanding), as well as tweak some of our o...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Lewi
Montea Model Update for pipeline delays, no change to Target Price
Montea operates by the rule, “no tenant, no building” and almost completely avoids speculative development. On the recent analyst call, CEO JO De Wolf explained that speculative development remains possible if a single building is already more than 50% pre-let and is located in a sought after area. Currently, Montea has 322k of permitted land ready to start construction and is in exclusive negotiations for a large part of it. These take longer due to the size and complexity of new projects on a...
- Guy Sips
EVS Broadcast Equipment Pointing toward the lower end of the range aft...
Without giving exact numbers, EVS indicated they delivered y/y growth in 3Q25 revenue, offsetting the impact of major events in 3Q24 and signalling recovery from the delays seen in 1H25. Strong order intake for 4Q25 supports confidence in full-year growth, allowing EVS to reaffirm its revenue guidance of € 195m–€ 210m. That said, company-specific factors for 2025 point toward the lower end of the range as some 2025 orders may slip into 2026, reflecting longer lead times between order intake and ...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Livio Luyten
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Corbion Feedback CMD
Below we list the key highlights from the CMD. We remind that Corbion announced new financial targets for 2026-2028 including a 3-6% organic sales growth target (KBCS 3.0%) and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin target (KBCS 17%), vs a 16.3% margin YTD. The announced strategic review on PLA is no surprise and will most likely result in an exit of Corbion, while still remaining the lactic acid supplier to the buyer. Biochemicals will be de-emphasized, which will put the growth focus on food preservati...
- Wim Hoste
Bekaert FIRST LOOK: 3Q sales -1% LFL, FY EBIT margin guidance adjusted...
3Q revenue declined by 1% on a like for like basis and came in slightly below our and consensus figures, whilst volumes were up 3%. Bekaert adjusted FY25 uEBIT margin guidance from an 8.0-8.5% range to around 8.0%, which compares to our and consensus forecasts of respectively 8.4% and 8.3%. Whilst the current momentum gives not much to cheer about, we continue to believe valuation is absolutely undemanding at a P/E26e of c. 7% and double digits free cash flow yields, which allow Bekaert to conti...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
Corbion FIRST LOOK: CMD review PLA, focus on food, algae & biomedical/...
Corbion's announced ambitious new financial targets for 2026-2028 including a 3-6% organic sales growth target (KBCS 3.0%) and an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin target (KBCS 17%). Unsurprisingly (given the volatile track record), a strategic review on PLA is being initiated, which we believe will result in an eventual exit. Biochemicals will be de-emphasized, which will put the growth focus on food preservation and formulation, algal oils and Biomedical Polymers/Pharma. We continue to appreciate Cor...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Wim Hoste
- Guy Sips
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Livio Luyten
- Wim Hoste
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