reports
- Håkon Astrup
Sandnes Sparebank - Initiation of coverage - The regional challenger
With cNOK29.5bn of lending at end-2023 and a pending merger with Hjelmeland Sparebank, Sandnes Sparebank has secured a strong market position in Rogaland. Supported by positive regional sentiment, distribution of customer dividends and potential capital tailwinds from Basel IV, in addition to still-favourable sector trends, we see scope for solid earnings generation. That said, trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.0x, we find the valuation fair and initiate coverage with a HOLD and NOK104 target price.
- Niklas Wetterling
Wihlborgs (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Back up to BUY ahead of Q1
We have upgraded Wihlborgs to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK100 (90). We no longer see a near-term risk to the stock from material asset write-downs, but rather expect investors to focus on healthy momentum in lettings at Wihlborgs. With a positive outlook for Q1, we forecast strong net lettings, and are 3% above Infront consensus on profit from property management (PFPM). The results are due at 07:30 CET on 23 April.
- Johannes Grunselius
Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK54.00) - Moving in the right direction
Due to a less-positive view on prices in combination with a more cautious view on the ramp-up of Norske Skog’s conversion investments in packaging, we have yet again made hefty negative revisions to our 2024–2025e. Still, we believe the long-term transformational case in Norske Skog remains intact while the balance sheet is robust. On a positive side, we note that test liner prices in continental Europe are up c10% in April after being under pressure for six quarters. Still, reflecting our signi...
- Martin Arnell
Evolution (Buy, TP: SEK1700.00) - Continued strong start to 2024
According to our tracker, the positive trend that we identified in Q1 (stabilising YOY growth after a period of deceleration) has continued in Q2: total daily average players has grown by 10% QOQ, corresponding to >35% YOY. We believe the strong trend YTD implies upside potential to our forecasts and consensus for Q1–Q2 Live revenue growth of 6–4% QOQ. Evolution continues to widen the gap to competition and we believe stabilising Live revenue growth YOY should prompt a share price re-rating.
- Douglas Lindahl
Hexpol (Hold, TP: SEK140.00) - Still-balanced risk/reward
We estimate Q1 sales of SEK5,483m and adj. EBIT of SEK932m, in line with consensus. We have increased our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c1% on average, mainly reflecting updated FX. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK140 (130) on updated valuation and estimates.
- Ola Trovatn
Arctic Fish (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Above consensus for Q1e
We expect Q1 operating EBIT of EUR4.9m, EUR0.4m (9%) above consensus of EUR4.5m. Based on a harvest volume of 2.0kt (consensus: 2.8kt), our estimates correspond to an EBIT/kg margin of EUR2.45 versus consensus of EUR1.61 (results due at 06:30 CET on 8 May). We continue to find significant value at the current share price, and reiterate our BUY and NOK80 target price.
- Ola Trovatn
Måsøval (Buy, TP: NOK39.00) - In line with consensus for Q1e
We expect Q1 operating EBIT of NOK89m, in line with consensus of NOK93m, from a 3.6kt harvest, corresponding to a group EBIT/kg of NOK24.8, including 35% downgrades in Farming Mid. We also see the potential for Q2 volume guidance being a positive at Q1 reporting (we model 10kt incl. Frøya Laks), and estimate EBIT of NOK341m in Q2, 37% above consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK39 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Ncc (Buy, TP: SEK150.00) - Q1 was cold
With a harsh Nordic winter and Easter falling in Q1, we expect a larger seasonal loss than consensus (results due at c07:00 CET on 3 May). We expect NCC to record one commercial property divestment of SEK530m, but due the level of announced orders, we have reduced our 2024–2026e revenue and EPS and expect Q1 order intake below Infront consensus. We reiterate our BUY and NOK150 target price.
- Simen Mortensen
Skanska (Buy, TP: SEK225.00) - Solid Q1 order intake expected
With no asset divestments of Commercial Development (CD) projects, we expect Q1 group EBIT to be below Infront consensus (results due at c07:30 CET on 8 May). However, with the strong announced orders, we expect a beat on order intake. KPIs in Residential Development (RD) are likely to be weak, we believe, but up from the all-time lows last year. We reiterate our BUY and SOTP-based target price of SEK225.
- Simen Mortensen
Peab (Sell, TP: SEK58.00) - Consensus too bullish, too soon
With solid announced orders in Q1, we expect order intake above consensus, but EBIT below due to the cold Nordic winter and early Easter (results due 6 May (time TBA)). We also believe consensus is too bullish on the speed of Property Development’s recovery. We find the recent share price rally an overreaction and have downgraded to SELL (HOLD), with a raised target price of SEK58 (52), reflecting our updated estimates and peer valuation.
- Martin Arnell
Stillfront Group (Buy, TP: SEK23.00) - In search of organic growth
We expect slight positive organic sales growth (2–3% YOY in Q1–Q2e) to be enough to trigger a share price recovery from today’s depressed levels. Our 2024–2026 forecasts contain sales growth, high margins and solid cash flows, and consequently, we find the markets’ negative view to be excessive. We have left our estimates fairly intact and reiterate our BUY and SEK23 target price ahead of the Q1 report (due at 07:00 CET on 25 April).
- Mattias Holmberg
Alfa Laval (Buy, TP: SEK495.00) - Alfa Lavalicious
We are 4% above consensus on Q1e orders but roughly in line on sales and adj. EBITA, and expect the company to guide for unchanged demand in Q2 versus Q1. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK495 (430) after raising our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by 5% on average. We are 4–10% above consensus on 2024–2026e adj. EBITA and continue to view Alfa Laval as one of the sector’s most exciting long-term growth stories, driven by the energy transitions.
- Hanna Lindbo
Alimak (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Limited changes ahead of Q1
We have lowered our 2024e sales and adj. EBITA by 1%, mainly on lower organic growth in Construction, and marginally revised our 2025–2026e ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 25 April). We believe project delays within Facade Access continued to hamper divisional sales, and expect a recovery in H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to SEK100 (94) on valuation.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Q1 set to build momentum
We expect Embla Medical (formerly Ossur) to report another solid organic growth quarter, despite tough comparables and Easter effects. We forecast the bionics portfolio to continue to drive prosthetics growth, with more muted growth in Bracing and Support and Patient Care. While we expect the EBIT margin to expand YOY in Q1, and continue to build throughout 2024, we estimate previously taken cost savings to have less effect in the quarter. We reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Hanna Lindbo
Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK71.00) - Inventory step-up to we...
We have raised our 2025–2026e adj. EBITA by 3–5%, mainly on positive FX revisions and higher margin assumptions. We have included an inventory step-up in our Q1 estimates, which hits our adj. EBITA negatively by SEK30m. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK71 (62) on valuation.
- Steffen Evjen
Vår Energi (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Decent start to the year
Vår Energi reported solid Q1 net production of 299kboed in its trading update, in line with the guidance provided in March. Realised prices for liquids and gas were 1–4% above our estimates. Our 2024e net production of 300kboed is at the high-end of the 280–300kboed guidance, albeit with limited incremental production from Balder X and Johan Castberg. For the Q1 results (due at c07:00 CET on 23 April), we expect focus to be on the execution and timeline of the Balder X (if start-up slips into Q2...
- Niklas Wetterling
Atrium Ljungberg (Hold, TP: SEK200.00) - Cost control behind PFPM beat
Strong cost control and an energy-cost tailwind gave a 5% PFPM beat, while the uptick in vacancy rate and negative net letting (second consecutive quarter) were key negatives. We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by 2–3%, mainly on market interest-rate changes. We reiterate our HOLD and have lowered our target price to SEK200 (220) on a tweaked valuation yield. Benefiting from a strong hedging portfolio in 2023 (FFOPS +16% YOY, among the best in the sector), we expect muted FFOPS growth in our forecas...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Shelf Drilling North Sea (Buy, TP: NOK45.00) - Key contract win in the...
The niche market in the North Sea is less affected by the more competitive near-term jackup environment, in our view. The CJ70 extension with Equinor and additional options should help earnings visibility and crystalise its underlying value. Additionally, it should be helpful in assessing various alternatives in light of the previously highlighted temporary liquidity shortfall in Q2 2024. The stock is trading at a significant discount to underlying values and peers. Bridging the gap in implied a...
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
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