reports
- Niclas Gehin
Tomra (Sell, TP: NOK95.00) - Pricing does not reflect its growth
We expect Tomra to report a Q1 EBITA of NOK311m (results due at 7:00 CET on 26 April). We have reduced our 2024 EPS estimate by 3% on cuts in the Food segment while we have raised our 2026 by 6% from upwards revisions in the Recycling segment. We have raised our target price to NOK95 (75) while we reiterate our SELL as we struggle to justify its 2024e P/E of 33x (similar to that of the ‘Magnificent 7’ with ~20% annual growth rates) when seen in combination with Tomra’s 2024 revenues growth expec...
- Patrik Ling
Getinge (Buy, TP: SEK255.00) - Upgraded to BUY after Q1 beat
Q1 earnings were stronger than we expected, with no negative surprises. We believe consensus for the coming years looks realistic and that Getinge’s valuation (despite the recent share price rise) looks attractive. Thus, we have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and have raised our target price to SEK255 (210).
- Linus Sigurdson
Investor (Buy, TP: SEK290.00) - Seamless succession
Patricia Industries showcased strong performance in Johan Forssell’s final quarter as CEO. He leaves his successor with a well-oiled machine, an impressive track record and strong financial flexibility for value-adding M&A activity. We expect continued NAV outperformance under the helm of Christian Cederholm and find the 13% discount to our NAV excessive. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK290 (260).
- Linus Sigurdson
Kinnevik (Buy, TP: SEK135.00) - Focus on core holdings
We still like the growth-exposure story going into 2024, with a portfolio increasingly concentrated towards its top-performing holdings. We believe the proposed SEK23/share capital distribution should provide some near-term support to the shares, but find the lack of a buyback mandate puzzling given the implicit 60% discount to its unlisted NAV. We have lowered our target price to SEK135 (140) but reiterate BUY, as we see a further decreasing writedown need given the number of recent VC transact...
- Simen Mortensen
Multiconsult (Buy, TP: NOK160.00) - On course for Q1e consensus beat
While Easter falling in Q1 is set to lead to a YOY EBIT drop on fewer working days, we expect a consensus beat, assuming a continuation of Q4’s high billing ratio. With property markets still weak, the recent EPBD revision is likely to represent a long-term boost for the company. We reiterate our BUY and NOK160 target price.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Shelf Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Set to maintain liquidity
For Shelf Drilling (parent), we consider the proposed refinancing of its 60%-owned subsidiary SDNS a likely relief as investors have been focused on its capital structure and liquidity situation post the recent Aramco suspensions. The proposed USD300m bond offering in SDNS would be a complete refinancing that is set to address both the earlier announced short-term liquidity requirement in SDNS (cUSD50m) as well as pushing debt maturity in SDNS from 2025 to 2028. Although Shelf Drilling has suffi...
- Emilie Krutnes Engen
Kitron (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Limited downside risk to consensus
We have lowered our 2024e revenues by 2%, as we understand it is taking Kitron longer to free up capacity for its Defence & Aerospace (D&A) customers. However, we see limited downside risk to consensus – which is below the mid-point of the 2024 revenue guidance – and expect the stock to re-rate as the market factors in that we have reached a trough. Thus, we reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK40 (42) on slightly lower estimates.
- Joachim Gunell
Storytel (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - The plot thickens
We believe recent insider trading and EQT’s board representative not standing for re-election could signal a potential shift in the shareholder base and direction for Storytel, which could create some short-term uncertainty, but also trigger a strategic review. We reiterate our BUY and SEK75 target price as we see potential upside to Storytel’s 2024 EBITDA margin guidance with a step change in FCF generation driving an undemanding valuation, with a 2025e EV/EBITDA of 7x, P/E of 19x and OpFCF yie...
- Niclas Gehin
Kongsberg Gruppen (Hold, TP: NOK780.00) - NATO spending sets the tone
We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY), but raised our target price to NOK780 (680), as we believe the valuation now reflects a probable NATO defence-spending ramp-up. Based on our analysis of various Western defence-budget scenarios and the correlation to Kongsberg Gruppen’s growth and valuation, we find the following priced in: by 2030, all non-US NATO defence spending rising to 2.5% of GDP, the equipment share of spending increasing from 30% to 40%, and Kongsberg Gruppen’s EBITDA margin expanding f...
- Ebba Bjorklid
AFRY Minor model adjustments
We have updated our 2024–2026 estimates, owing primarily to higher net financial costs, as we now expect higher interest rates for longer and higher net debt in 2024–2026 following discussions with the company. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate our SEK205 target price.
- Douglas Lindahl
Dometic (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Recovery taking time
Overall, Q1 was below consensus, driven by surprisingly weak performance for Land Vehicles Americas where Dometic said the competitive environment was tough. We have cut our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by c3% on average and reduced our target price to SEK100 (105). We reiterate our BUY, seeing c25% upside potential from the current share price to our target price, but have pushed a recovery out in time.
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from the past week are: 1) we raised our target price on VEF to SEK3.5 (3.4) and reiterated our BUY; 2) Kinnevik lowered the value of its unlisted portfolio by 5% QOQ in Q1 and proposed a SEK23/share cash distribution; and 3) Patricia Industries reported a strong Q1 in Johan Forssell’s last quarterly report as Investor’s CEO.
- Johannes Grunselius
Norske Skog (Buy, TP: NOK60.00) - Moving in the right direction
The Q1 progress was above our expectations and in particular, it was positive to see that the development for the containerboard business was significantly above our forecast. In our view, the Q1 report shows that the company is on the right track and as plenty of earnings risk is coming off, we believe the Q1 report is strengthening the investment case. We have raised our target price to NOK60 (54) and reiterate our BUY.
- Stefan Gauffin
Elisa (Hold, TP: EUR45.00) - Cost savings continue to lift EBITDA
The Q1 results showed improved mobile service revenue (MSR) growth and a return to growth in International Digital Services (IDS), and group EBITDA beat consensus on cost control. However, due to Elisa’s premium valuation to Nordic peers, we reiterate our HOLD and EUR45 target price.
- Nicolas McBeath
Avanza Bank (Hold, TP: SEK257.00) - Understated activity resurgence
We expect rising stock markets and customer activity to offset much of the NII headwind from looming rate cuts, and to drive positive consensus earnings revisions for 2024–2025e. Our 2024–2026 EPS forecasts are broadly unchanged, leaving the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of c17x. With 10% upside potential to our unchanged SEK257 target price, we reiterate our HOLD.
- Steffen Evjen
Solid NCS production in March
The preliminary Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) production figures for the NCS in March showed strong liquids production of 2,086kboed (~4% above forecast) and gas production of 365mcm/d (broadly in line). Overall production was up 2.7% MOM. On a company level, production was down MOM for most names in February; Aker BP and Equinor were hit by reduced production from Johan Sverdrup, while Vår Energi was hampered by downtime at Fenja.
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a Q1 preview on Equinor. We believe its share price upswing since its CMU is mainly attributable to strong performance by its peer group. The stock is trading at a 15% premium to peers, in line with its historical average. In other news, Vår Energi reported Q1 production in line with our estimates, with realised prices slightly above. We expect focus in the full Q1 report (due on 23 April) to be on Balder X and Johan Castberg. Also, according to news sources, Equinor’s ch...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
- Alexander Aukner
LSG LEROY SEAFOOD GROUP ASA
AUSS AUSTEVOLL SEAFOOD ASA
AKVA AKVA GROUP ASA
SALM SALMAR ASA
GSF GRIEG SEAFOOD ASA
MOWI MOWI ASA
BAKKA BAKKAFROST P/F
SALMOCAM SALMONES CAMANCHACA SA
IFISH ICE FISH FARM AS
ASA ATLANTIC SAPPHIRE
SALME SALMON EVOLUTION HOLDING
KING THE KINGFISH COMPANY NV
AKBM AKER BIOMARINE
ISLAX ARNARLAX AS
AFISH ARCTIC FISH HOLDING AS
MAS MÅSØVAL
- Patrik Ling
Arjo (Buy, TP: SEK58.00) - An in-line report
The Q1 results were fairly in line with our expectations, with the main deviation higher restructuring charges. Adjusted for this, EBIT was in line. Overall, organic growth was 4.3% YOY, in line with the full-year guidance of 3–5%. Arjo also provided an update on the Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) for Wound Express, where data should be available in mid-2025. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK58 (60).
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