reports
- Niclas Gehin
Elkem (Hold, TP: NOK20.00) - Muddling through
Q1 EBITDA was largely in line with our forecast and consensus, while EPS took a hit from derivative losses. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 6% and our target price to NOK20 (22). Although the balance sheet looks fragile at a NIBD/EBITDA of 3.5x and ICR of 4.2x, we believe higher silicon prices should pull it into healthier territories from Q2. However, we have cut our 2024–2025e DPS to zero. We reiterate our HOLD as we expect the silicones market to continue to struggle with overcapacity, ...
- Mattias Holmberg
ABB (Buy, TP: SEK595.00) - Non, je ne regrette rien
CEO Björn Rosengren’s penultimate report before retiring highlighted the structural improvements made at ABB under his tenure as margins beat our expectations and consensus, and the 2024 margin guidance was raised. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK595 (520), having increased our 2024–2026e operating EBITA by 5–4%. At 15.2x 2024e EV/EBIT (10-year average 15.0x), we believe the stock deserves further re-rating as the valuation still seems to be anchored in historica...
- Steffen Evjen
Equinor (Hold, TP: NOK300.00) - Stable valuation relative to peers
Following the poor investor reception at its CMU, Equinor’s share price has recovered to pre-CMU levels. While some attribute this to Equinor showing discipline by not winning the Sørlige Nordsjø II offshore wind auction, we believe it is due to its peer group of European majors trading higher in recent weeks, as Equinor’s ~15% premium valuation to peers has remained stable. Our Q1e adj. EBIT is 1% above consensus. We reiterate our HOLD, but have raised our target price to NOK300 (280).
- Nicolas McBeath
Nordea (Buy, TP: SEK169.00) - Buy in the buyback pause
The positive NII trend in Q1 underpins Nordea’s resilient NII outlook, where we forecast flat NII in 2025 versus 2023 despite lower rates. We expect the paused buybacks to resume by year-end, and accelerate in 2025, and that Nordea will still provide 10–11% in total yields for 2024–2026. We expect Nordea to retain an ROE above or around 15% for 2024–2026, and thus find the P/BV of c1.1x too low. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c2% and our target price to SEK169, and we reiterate our BUY.
- Douglas Lindahl
Vestas Wind Systems (Buy, TP: DKK242.00) - Tailwinds picking up
We expect Q1 sales of EUR2,967m, with adj. EBIT of EUR44m (consensus: EUR40m), and an unchanged 2024 outlook. Q1 is likely to be by far the smallest quarter this year in terms of revenue, earnings and cash flow. We believe underlying fundamentals continued to improve, likely leading to a positive margin trend. We have made minor estimate changes ahead of the results, which are due on 2 May, and reiterate our HOLD and DKK242 target price.
- Emilie Krutnes Engen
Autostore (Sell, TP: NOK14.00) - Set for slow start to the year
While we forecast a continued sequential order intake improvement, we are 4% and 6%, respectively, below consensus on Q1e sales and adj. EBITDA, as we expect a slow start to the year. This is supported by AutoStore US imports, indicating a substantial drop in Q1 sales. In our view, the soft revenue growth could raise concerns about top-line growth for 2024, potentially alleviated by a strong order intake. Thus, we reiterate our SELL and NOK14 target price, corresponding to a 2024–2025e adj. P/E ...
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Nel (Sell, TP: NOK3.50) - Rough start to the year
Nel reported soft Q1 figures, with revenue at its lowest since Q3 2022 (adjusted for the Nikola one-off gain), and EBITDA below our estimate. Put in context with poor backlog coverage for 2025e, the lack of large orders remains a concern and success is required in the near term. We have lowered our revenue for 2024e by 10% and for 2025e by 6%. We reiterate our SELL and NOK3.5 target price.
- Ola Trovatn
AKVA group (Hold, TP: NOK70.00) - Finishing old Land Based contracts
We expect Q1 EBITDA of NOK65m (8.3% margin), EBIT of NOK14m (1.7% margin), and order intake of NOK757m (0.96x book-to-bill, no quarterly consensus available). Ahead of the Q1 report (due at 07:00 CET on 3 May), we have made negative revisions to Q1 EBITDA for Sea Based and Digital, but positive revisions for Land Based. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to NOK70 (60) on higher peer group valuations, and higher SOTP and DCF valuations.
- Johannes Grunselius
Holmen (Sell, TP: SEK370.00) - Weak earnings momentum
We consider Holmen a quality company and continue to like its shareholder-friendly strategy. However, as c50% of the 2023 EBIT was derived from the traditional paper business (for which addressable markets are shrinking), and with still-tough markets for the paperboard business and lower spot prices for electricity affecting the renewable power business, we expect earnings to decline for 2024. Given relatively rich earnings multiples, we reiterate our SELL and SEK370 target price.
- Linus Sigurdson
VEF (Buy, TP: SEK3.50) - Positive momentum continues
VEF wrote up its portfolio by 1% QOQ in Q1 (in USD terms). We believe the underlying portfolio performance remains healthy, and the USD10m up round in TransferGo strengthens our conviction in VEF’s NAV valuations as VC dealmaking continues to pick up after a lacklustre 2023. In light of these developments, we find the 56% discount to NAV excessive and expect a positive re-rating as VEF looks to make an exit this year. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK3.5 (3.4).
- Mattias Holmberg
Volvo (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - Beat in softer markets
The Q1 report supported our view that underlying profitability has improved structurally (now also evident in a weaker market), and that consensus will have to come up as 2024 progresses. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK340 (335), having raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 7–4% – we are now 8–10% above consensus.
- Johan Skoglund
Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK57.00) - GLP-1 a long-term positive factor
We reiterate our BUY and target price of SEK57 ahead of Nolato’s Q1 report, where we expect a continued improving EBITA margin QOQ from the cost-efficiency programme, along with minor volume gains. The new GLP-1 contract also adds confidence in continued long-term Medical Solutions growth and margin expansion.
- Stefan Gauffin
Lime Technologies (Hold, TP: SEK345.00) - Consensus reflects tough qua...
We forecast a slight slowdown in organic growth and margin dilution from the acquisition of SportAdmin ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:50 CET on 25 April). However, we believe this is fully reflected in consensus and we are 3% above on Q1e EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK345 target price.
- Ola Trovatn
Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK75.00) - More value in Feed Ingredients
We forecast Q1 adj. EBITDA of USD4m, broadly in line with consensus of USD5m. With a new reporting structure being implemented from Q1, the main focus in the report (due at 07:00 CET on 26 April) will be headline numbers. We have trimmed our Qrill Aqua estimates for Q1 based on a low catch in Q4 and cut volumes sold in 2024–2026e by c4kt, based on higher krill oil production. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK75 (60) based on an increased valuation of Feed Ingredients.
- Joachim Gunell
Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) -
Despite a delay in our mix-driven earnings and FCF rebound case, Ericsson’s Q1 gross margin showed early signs of trends we believe should accelerate through 2024 and ultimately drive Infront consensus EPS revisions closer to our full-year adj. EBITA (17% above consensus), potentially triggering a re-rating. In our view, Ericsson’s soft market outlook commentary and implicit Q2 guidance should be seen in light of its ongoing union negotiations in Sweden amid lay-offs. We reiterate our BUY and SE...
- Håkon Astrup
Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued underlying improvement
Q1 PTP was down 15% YOY to DKK1,007m (as we and consensus expected), reflecting the harsh winter weather and a high-profile claim in Sweden. However, the underlying claims ratio extended its long run of improvements, ending 0.5%-points stronger YOY. Given the ongoing premium repricing and CMD in December, we expect focus to remain on maintaining underwriting discipline, supporting continued improvements. We have made limited changes to our 2025–2026e net profit, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 ...
- Tomi Railo
Cargotec (Buy, TP: EUR77.00) - Focus on spring news
We reiterate our BUY and EUR77 target price, with c20% upside potential, ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 30 April, followed by a briefing at 09:00 CET), where we will focus on orders and profitability. We also maintain our positive case (see our “Handling it successfully” report from 21 March) prior to the Kalmar prospectus, financial targets and CMD in May.
- Martin Arnell
Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Disciplined start to the year
We reiterate our BUY and SEK155 target price, reflecting mostly unchanged 2024 estimates. Our impression is that the Q1 sports margin was slightly below average, but that e.g. Betsson’s disciplined marketing spending should have protected a solid EBIT. To us, Betsson looks well positioned for an event-driven year with large customer intake potential, laying the foundation for growth in 2024–2026e.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK600.00) - Solid start to the year
We expect Royal Unibrew to have a solid start to the year from a top-line perspective, while profitably is likely to be subdued due to revaluation of inventories when it reports Q1 results (due in the afternoon on 30 April). Despite our view that organic EBIT growth in Q1e will be below the 2024 guidance, Q1 is typically a small quarter and with profitability set to pick up throughout the year, we expect the guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and DKK600 target price.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - Q1e hit by lower power prices
We expect Q1 to be hurt by lower power prices and an idle turbine installation vessel, and forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK817m, well below consensus. With no ongoing construction activity, we expect focus to be on how to get the consented onshore capacity into operation, and contracting activity in FOWIC. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK275 (290) on lower long-term power price expectations reducing our NAV and a slightly higher discount to NAV.
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