reports
- Geir Hiller Holom
Medistim (Hold, TP: NOK190.00) - Sales in Americas weaken
Revenues grew 3.5% YOY in Q1 (currency-neutral total sales grew 2.2%), below our estimate c6%. The EBIT margin of 24% was almost back to normal and in our view shows the low margin in Q4 2023 (16.4%) should be seen as a one-off. However, we remain concerned about revenue growth, especially in the Americas, after the fifth consecutive quarter of declining currency-neutral sales. Thus, while we reiterate our HOLD, we have lowered our 2024–2026e sales by c3–8% and cut our target price to NOK190 (21...
- Niklas Wetterling
Catena (Buy, TP: SEK515.00) - Time to put the money to work
The Q1 results were solid in our view; although the vacancy rate rose, it was from a very low level, and was therefore of limited concern. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK515 (500). In our view, Catena has (too much) firepower following its last equity raise and we would like to see more M&A, project activity, or speedy reinvestment. Following the equity raise the stock looks highly valued on a 2025–2026e P/FFO of 21–19x, but that drops to 15–14x adjusted for earnings...
- Miika Ihamaki
Kesko (Hold, TP: EUR17.00) - Technical(ly) weak
Q1 disappointed due to Building & Technical Trade (BTT) profitability well below expectations. We continue to see a mixed case, with stable to gradually improving Grocery Trade (GT) but still-weak Building & Technical Trade. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR17 (18), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT and DPS by c4%.
- Håkon Astrup
SpareBank1 SR-Bank (Buy, TP: NOK158.00) - Solid growth and asset quali...
With NII remaining at high levels and modest loan losses, SRBNK reported a Q1 ROE of 14.6% versus its >13% target. Following strong lending growth of 2.3% QOQ, the CET1 ratio was flat QOQ, with the bank highlighting cNOK2.5bn synergy potential from the pending merger with SpareBank 1 Sørøst-Norge. We have made only minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS. With the stock trading at a 2025e P/E of ~8.9x, we continue to find the valuation attractive. We reiterate our BUY and NOK158 target price.
- Niklas Wetterling
Fabege (Hold, TP: SEK85.00) - Rental market concerns remain
We have cut our 2025–2026e EPS by c6–4% on rising market interest rates, following a soft Q1 report, where focus was on a further weakening Stockholm office rental market. We found net lettings disappointing at SEK-36m and the minor vacancy rate uptick soft. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to SEK85 (100).
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Norwegian Air Shuttle (Buy, TP: NOK21.00) - Weak Q1 due to higher cost...
Norwegian Air Shuttle traded down c7% on Wednesday on weaker than expected Q1 results hit by higher costs, which made the market question the reiterated 2024 CASK guidance. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK21 (23) on negative estimate revisions, reflecting slightly revised cost assumptions.
- Ole Martin Westgaard
Europris (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Not its best report
Both the Q1 results and the 2024 cost guidance disappointed. However, we reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive and believe Europris has a winning concept in the current market, but have lowered our target price to NOK80 (85), reflecting our estimate cuts.
- Johannes Grunselius
UPM (Buy, TP: EUR45.00) - In pole position
Q1 operations were solid across the board, and earnings beat expectations on higher realised power prices than expected and lower opex for the pulp business. We have made relatively few changes to our 2024–2027e earnings, but believe the investment case has strengthened and the forecast risk been eliminated given strong operations and positive outlook comments also for transformative growth investment projects. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to EUR45 (44).
- Johannes Grunselius
Stora Enso (Buy, TP: EUR16.50) - On track
Due to better volumes and prices in the packaging materials division, underlying Q1 earnings were above our expectations. Looking ahead, earnings are set to be supported by higher pulp prices at the same time as pricing power has strengthened for most of Stora Enso’s packaging products. We have made limited changes to our 2024–2027 forecasts, but as we are increasingly confident that Stora Enso will be able to raise its profits to a sustainably healthy level, we have increased our target price t...
- Tomi Railo
Metso (Buy, TP: EUR13.00) - Small profit miss, but positives too
Q1 profits missed in a seasonally small quarter but also included positives: solid profitability, and strong Aggregates and Service orders. We have cut our 2024–2026e clean EPS by c3% and reiterate our BUY and EUR13 target price. The valuation remains attractive, in our view.
- Miika Ihamaki
Huhtamaki (Buy, TP: EUR47.00) - Building momentum
Q1 clean EBIT was roughly in line with consensus. While sales growth was still sluggish, the main positives included a good performance in North America and cost action. Moreover, management commentary reassured us on improving trading conditions in several key markets, while the recent efficiency measures appear to be biting. We reiterate our BUY and EUR47 target price, having made only minor estimate changes.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Subsea 7 (Buy, TP: NOK225.00) - On track for long-term growth
Q1 EBITDA was 5–10% above consensus and the best first quarter since 2017. Subsea and conventional performed well, while renewables broke even, although we see it improving with several new projects commencing late-Q1/early-Q2. The tender pipeline is strong, and management said it is in early discussions with clients for work extending towards the end of the decade, providing support for the cycle duration. There were no changes to the 2024–2025e guidance, and we have made limited estimate chang...
- Johan Skoglund
OX2 (Buy, TP: SEK75.00) - Slow Q1, but strong outlook
Q1 brought low project sale volumes, leading to negative EBIT due to a larger organisation YOY. However, OX2 now has c2GW in active sales processes, a large share of which is onshore, and management maintained its guidance for YOY EBIT growth in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK75 target price, and have raised our 2025e EBIT by 2%.
- Johan Skoglund
Bufab (Hold, TP: SEK375.00) - Please HOLD for a recovery
We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK375 (410) following the Q1 report, with sales missing our estimate by 4% and EBITA by 10% in a still-challenging market that weighed on growth and margins. Lower-than-expected organic growth has prompted us to delay our recovery assumptions, and we have reduced our 2024–2025e EBITA by 2–5%.
- Simen Aas
Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Financial targets up next
The solid Q1 results were aided by the ongoing gross margin recovery, YOY and QOQ. We expect investor focus from here to be on whether Essity can offset rising raw material costs through agility and pricing power. We see new financial targets and capital allocations as the next potential share-price catalysts; we reiterate our BUY and have edged up our target price to SEK330 (325).
- Tomi Railo
- Linus Sigurdson
The weekly navigator
The key takeaways from this week are: 1) we raised our target price on Investor to SEK290 (260) as we see continued outperformance characteristics; 2) we cut our target price on Kinnevik to SEK135 (140) but reiterated our BUY, as we see continuously declining writedown risk in a more concentrated growth portfolio; and 3) VNV Global reported an unchanged Q1 NAV QOQ in USD terms.
- Simen Mortensen
Pandox (Hold, TP: SEK175.00) - Q1 in line, fairly valued
Q1 FFOps was in line with our estimate but below Infront consensus. While we have made only minor forecast changes, following the recent share performance and as the stock is trading close to our target price, we have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) but reiterate our SEK175 target price.
- Johan Skoglund
NCAB (Hold, TP: SEK72.00) - Positive order intake trend
We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to SEK72 (70) following the Q1 report, which showed improving order intake and net sales and EBITA in line with our estimates. We have raised our 2024–2025e EBITA by 2–6% due to a quicker-than-expected order intake recovery, pushing up our near-term growth assumptions.
- Hanna Lindbo
Electrolux Professional (Hold, TP: SEK72.00) - Food delivery
While our 2024–2026e sales are roughly unchanged, we have raised our clean EBITA by 4–2% on higher margin assumptions for Food & Beverage. Tosei was accretive for group margins in Q1, but the quarter is seasonally strong for the acquired business, and we do not expect Q2 to be as solid. We reiterate our HOLD, but have increased our target price to SEK72 (71).
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