reports
- Johannes Grunselius
Boliden (Buy, TP: SEK420.00) - In a sweet spot
Despite low mining volumes, the Q1 results were close to our expectations, thanks to good cost control. We have made significant estimate increases on better metal price and FX assumptions, and beyond 2024 we continue to see additional earnings support from: 1) higher mining volumes due to richer metal grades; 2) normal operations at Rönnskär; and 3) growing profits from the Odda smelter. Our spot-based estimates for 2027 translate to an EV/EBIT of 5.2x, but we see significant upside potential t...
- Douglas Lindahl
Beijer Ref (Hold, TP: SEK156.00) - Building (cash flow) confidence
We have increased our cash flow estimates but have made moderate underlying forecast changes after the Q1 report. Inclusion of recent M&A and updated FX has led us to raise our adj. EBITA by c3% on average for 2024–2026e. We have raised our target price to SEK156 (152) due to our model changes and updated peer multiples. We reiterate our HOLD and see limited upside potential given the valuation seems on the high side.
- Mattias Holmberg
Epiroc (Buy, TP: SEK230.00) - Mix headwind, benefits to come
Similar to Sandvik’s Mining business, the main miss in Epiroc’s Q1 was the soft margin, albeit for different reasons. Sandvik pointed to the unfavourable timing of equipment deliveries, while Epiroc alluded to a pure mix issue (high share of equipment, low share of service). Only small benefits from Epiroc’s cost measures have started to show – we expect more to be gradually realised through 2024. We have trimmed our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 1% on average. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered o...
- Steffen Evjen
Vår Energi (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Jotun FPSO sail-away in focus
Q1 was in line with our expectations and consensus. Over the next months, we believe investor focus will remain on the Balder X development and the August sail-away schedule for the Jotun FPSO, a pre-requisite for production start in Q4 this year. Our estimates reflect start-up in late-2024, but based on our investor discussions, most seem to factor in the FPSO not reaching the August sail-away deadline and start-up being delayed until end-Q2 2025. We view the risk/reward as attractive should Ba...
- Mads Brinkmann Andersen
ISS (Buy, TP: DKK171.00) - Q1 looking good, but not key focus
We expect another solid organic growth quarter, again mainly driven by pricing – but for investor focus to be on any further detail on the ongoing Deutsche Telekom (DTAG) arbitration, and comments on FCF and the EBITA margin. We reiterate our BUY and DKK171 target price.
- Emil Jonsson
Norion Bank (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Market still overstating risk
Q1 earnings were solid, with low credit losses the main positive. We still see a favourable growth outlook, with a 2023–2026e earnings CAGR of c9%, combined with 7–18% dividend yields. We continue to find the stock undervalued, at a 2025e P/E of c6x, adjusted for excess capital. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK53 (52) on 1–4% higher 2025–2026e EPS.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Agilyx (Buy, TP: NOK40.00) - Progressing as planned
With the H2 results largely in line and no major news on Cyclyx or the conversion side, we consider the report neutral and have barely changed our estimates. On the bright side, Agilyx cites high demand for its circularity centres (CCCs), with nine petrochemical companies having signed MoUs for offtake from future centres. We reiterate our BUY and NOK40 target price based on five initial CCCs, but see further upside potential in the event of a favourable market where more facilities are built.
- Simen Mortensen
Jm Ab (Sell, TP: SEK155.00) - Q1 EPS miss
Higher tax costs than forecast meant Q1 EPS missed expectations. Sales of new homes were broadly in line with our estimate – but starts were below, prompting us to cut our 2024e EPS by c19% and 2025e by c5%. However, expecting a catch-up effect, we have raised our 2026e EPS by c16%. In our view, the valuation is already pricing in a market recovery, while we still see a risk of setbacks, mainly from fewer and slower interest rate cuts, and we see a better risk/reward elsewhere in the sector. We ...
- Simen Mortensen
Entra (Hold, TP: NOK105.00) - Continued asset value decline
Entra reported weaker underlying Q1 results than we expected, as well as still-declining asset values (-2.5% QOQ) due to higher yield valuations. On increased market interest rates, we have cut our 2024–2026e FFO by c12–16%. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK105 (115).
- Håkon Astrup
DNB (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Trimmed NII, but strong asset quality
Supported by improved fees from asset management, more moderate cost inflation and robust asset quality, DNB reported a strong Q1 ROE of 15.6% (>13% target). Meanwhile, driven by lower credit demand, product-mix effects and one less interest day, NII declined 2.9% QOQ. The CET1 ratio rose ~80bp QOQ to 19.0%, with the ample buffer to its 16.8% supervisory expectation boding well for further generous distributions. We have cut our 2025e EPS by ~2%, driven by lower NII.
- Rune Majlund Dahl
Novonesis (Buy, TP: DKK440.00) - Bridge-building to higher targets
We look past a well-flagged weak Q1e trading update to the upcoming CMD, where we expect focus on synergies and a potential increase in the long-term EBITDA margin target. We have taken a deep dive into the organic revenue bridge from the legacy divisional forecasts to the new, and the increased focus on Energy, as it is key for Planetary Health Biosolutions’ performance. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD), but reiterate our DKK440 target price.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Embla Medical (Buy, TP: DKK39.00) - Solid start to 2024
Embla Medical’s (formerly Össur’s) organic growth print in Q1 was solid, 7% above consensus of 5.6%. Reported margins were somewhat soft on unexpected one-offs related to cost saving initiatives, but underlying margins were in line with consensus, and the commentary from management about the gross-margin trajectory for the remainder of 2024 was supportive. On limited estimate changes, we reiterate our BUY and DKK39 target price.
- Nicolas McBeath
Nordnet (Buy, TP: SEK220.00) - Higher activity swelling margins
Increased customer activity and the related boost to the brokerage margin helped Nordnet to record-high revenues and earnings in Q1. We have raised our 2024–2026e EPS by 5–9% and our target price to SEK220 (212). We still like the outlook for profitable growth in the Nordic savings market, and Nordnet’s 2025e P/E of c19x. We reiterate our BUY.
- Simen Mortensen
Norconsult (Buy, TP: NOK31.50) - Billing ratio in focus
With Easter in Q1, the billable working days in the quarter were 60 versus 65 last year. Thus, we expect a YOY drop in adj. EBIT of c55%. Our Q1 focus point is the billing ratio, with new hires in Sweden ramping up and Building demand in regional Norway levelling out as the main moving parts. For 2026, consensus EBIT seems too bullish, given few 2026e working days. However, the long-term story remains intact in our view, despite this potential consensus downside. We reiterate our BUY and NOK31.5...
- Tomi Railo
- Niklas Wetterling
Wihlborgs (Buy, TP: SEK105.00) - Strong Q1 net lettings, as expected
The Q1 results were solid, with strong net lettings (as flagged) and a 4% consensus beat on PFPM (albeit fully explained by a one-off). Following a good start to Q2 lettings, we see potential for the strong net-lettings trend to continue. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK105 (100) on a tweaked valuation.
- Martin Huseby Karlsen
Subsea 7 (Buy, TP: NOK225.00) - Consensus underestimates long-term mar...
We expect regular seasonality in Q1, but believe this is not fully reflected by consensus (we are 10% below on EBITDA). We find consensus too conservative on margin expansion until 2026e. Excluding PLSVs, leases and JV contributions, we calculate consensus EBITDA implies only 1%-point EBITDA margin expansion in 2024–2026. We are 18% above consensus on 2026e EBITDA, and see upside potential to the guided USD250m/year shareholder return in 2026. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target pric...
- Niklas Wetterling
Nyfosa (Hold, TP: SEK100.00) - Sector outperformance petering out
Despite raising our target price to SEK100 (91) on tweaked valuation, we have downgraded Nyfosa to HOLD (BUY), finding the valuation rich after strong sector outperformance (since October, it has gained c100% versus the sector’s 37%), on: 1) the risk of an uptick in market interest rates given its relatively high leverage and short interest-rate duration; 2) rather soft rental-market KPIs; and 3) insider divestment from founder Mr Engwall.
- Mattias Holmberg
Sandvik (Hold, TP: SEK245.00) - Weakness expected but not flagged
Q1 was weak, but management commentary suggests the issues were both expected and temporary, and should recover through the year. We are still left with some concerns – particularly the margin weakness and why the temporary issues in SMR had not been communicated if they were anticipated. Early Q2 trading comments for SMM (stable compared to Q1) do not change our view of the short cycle in general or the division in particular. We have lowered our 2024–2026e underlying adj. EBITA by 2–3%, but po...
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Cambi Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates ahead of Cambi’s Q1 report, due on 7 May. We forecast EBITDA of NOK64m and a cash position of NOK383m. Our modelled order intake is NOK298m, primarily reflecting announced orders in Hawaii and Norway. We do not consider these changes to be material, and have not changed our BUY recommendation or NOK20 target price.
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