reports
- Johannes Grunselius
Holmen (Sell, TP: SEK370.00) - Weak earnings momentum
We consider Holmen a quality company and continue to like its shareholder-friendly strategy. However, as c50% of the 2023 EBIT was derived from the traditional paper business (for which addressable markets are shrinking), and with still-tough markets for the paperboard business and lower spot prices for electricity affecting the renewable power business, we expect earnings to decline for 2024. Given relatively rich earnings multiples, we reiterate our SELL and SEK370 target price.
- Linus Sigurdson
VEF (Buy, TP: SEK3.50) - Positive momentum continues
VEF wrote up its portfolio by 1% QOQ in Q1 (in USD terms). We believe the underlying portfolio performance remains healthy, and the USD10m up round in TransferGo strengthens our conviction in VEF’s NAV valuations as VC dealmaking continues to pick up after a lacklustre 2023. In light of these developments, we find the 56% discount to NAV excessive and expect a positive re-rating as VEF looks to make an exit this year. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK3.5 (3.4).
- Mattias Holmberg
Volvo (Buy, TP: SEK340.00) - Beat in softer markets
The Q1 report supported our view that underlying profitability has improved structurally (now also evident in a weaker market), and that consensus will have to come up as 2024 progresses. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to SEK340 (335), having raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBIT by 7–4% – we are now 8–10% above consensus.
- Johan Skoglund
Nolato (Buy, TP: SEK57.00) - GLP-1 a long-term positive factor
We reiterate our BUY and target price of SEK57 ahead of Nolato’s Q1 report, where we expect a continued improving EBITA margin QOQ from the cost-efficiency programme, along with minor volume gains. The new GLP-1 contract also adds confidence in continued long-term Medical Solutions growth and margin expansion.
- Stefan Gauffin
Lime Technologies (Hold, TP: SEK345.00) - Consensus reflects tough qua...
We forecast a slight slowdown in organic growth and margin dilution from the acquisition of SportAdmin ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:50 CET on 25 April). However, we believe this is fully reflected in consensus and we are 3% above on Q1e EBITDA. We reiterate our HOLD and SEK345 target price.
- Ola Trovatn
Aker Biomarine (Buy, TP: NOK75.00) - More value in Feed Ingredients
We forecast Q1 adj. EBITDA of USD4m, broadly in line with consensus of USD5m. With a new reporting structure being implemented from Q1, the main focus in the report (due at 07:00 CET on 26 April) will be headline numbers. We have trimmed our Qrill Aqua estimates for Q1 based on a low catch in Q4 and cut volumes sold in 2024–2026e by c4kt, based on higher krill oil production. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK75 (60) based on an increased valuation of Feed Ingredients.
- Joachim Gunell
Ericsson (Buy, TP: SEK70.00) -
Despite a delay in our mix-driven earnings and FCF rebound case, Ericsson’s Q1 gross margin showed early signs of trends we believe should accelerate through 2024 and ultimately drive Infront consensus EPS revisions closer to our full-year adj. EBITA (17% above consensus), potentially triggering a re-rating. In our view, Ericsson’s soft market outlook commentary and implicit Q2 guidance should be seen in light of its ongoing union negotiations in Sweden amid lay-offs. We reiterate our BUY and SE...
- Håkon Astrup
Tryg (Buy, TP: DKK185.00) - Continued underlying improvement
Q1 PTP was down 15% YOY to DKK1,007m (as we and consensus expected), reflecting the harsh winter weather and a high-profile claim in Sweden. However, the underlying claims ratio extended its long run of improvements, ending 0.5%-points stronger YOY. Given the ongoing premium repricing and CMD in December, we expect focus to remain on maintaining underwriting discipline, supporting continued improvements. We have made limited changes to our 2025–2026e net profit, and reiterate our BUY and DKK185 ...
- Tomi Railo
Cargotec (Buy, TP: EUR77.00) - Focus on spring news
We reiterate our BUY and EUR77 target price, with c20% upside potential, ahead of the Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 30 April, followed by a briefing at 09:00 CET), where we will focus on orders and profitability. We also maintain our positive case (see our “Handling it successfully” report from 21 March) prior to the Kalmar prospectus, financial targets and CMD in May.
- Martin Arnell
Betsson (Buy, TP: SEK155.00) - Disciplined start to the year
We reiterate our BUY and SEK155 target price, reflecting mostly unchanged 2024 estimates. Our impression is that the Q1 sports margin was slightly below average, but that e.g. Betsson’s disciplined marketing spending should have protected a solid EBIT. To us, Betsson looks well positioned for an event-driven year with large customer intake potential, laying the foundation for growth in 2024–2026e.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Royal Unibrew (Buy, TP: DKK600.00) - Solid start to the year
We expect Royal Unibrew to have a solid start to the year from a top-line perspective, while profitably is likely to be subdued due to revaluation of inventories when it reports Q1 results (due in the afternoon on 30 April). Despite our view that organic EBIT growth in Q1e will be below the 2024 guidance, Q1 is typically a small quarter and with profitability set to pick up throughout the year, we expect the guidance to be maintained. We reiterate our BUY and DKK600 target price.
- Helene Kvilhaug Brøndbo
Bonheur (Buy, TP: NOK275.00) - Q1e hit by lower power prices
We expect Q1 to be hurt by lower power prices and an idle turbine installation vessel, and forecast Q1 EBITDA of NOK817m, well below consensus. With no ongoing construction activity, we expect focus to be on how to get the consented onshore capacity into operation, and contracting activity in FOWIC. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK275 (290) on lower long-term power price expectations reducing our NAV and a slightly higher discount to NAV.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Probably a good start to the year
We expect the Q1 results to show Carlsberg had a good start to the year (due at 07:30 CET on 30 April). Slightly above consensus, we forecast c2% volume growth YOY and c6% organic revenue growth. Given Q1 is seasonally a small quarter, we believe the FY guidance could be kept for now, but that it remains conservative as usual, and see room for increases during the year. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.
- Jesper Ingildsen
Pandora (Buy, TP: DKK1400.00) - Likely strong start to the year
Driven by strong brand momentum, increased investments and phased network expansion, we expect Pandora to have seen a strong start to the year (Q1 results due at 07:30 CET on 2 May). We forecast c15% organic growth YOY for Q1 (consensus c12%) and, as flagged by the company, a subdued EBIT margin due to investments. We continue to regard the full-year guidance as conservative (as has tended to be the case) and believe it could be updated with the results. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,400 target ...
- Joachim Gunell
HMS Networks (Buy, TP: SEK540.00) - Red(y) to roar
We have upgraded HMS Networks to BUY (SELL) and raised our target price to SEK540 (450) as: 1) we have increased our 2024–2025e adj. EPS by 5–15% and like Red Lion’s strategic fit; 2) we see investor focus shifting to improving QOQ orders; 3) restructuring programmes have historically marked an end-market trough; 4) 2025e multiples are digestible, and we see a good entry point; and 5) we expect the stock to close the gap to the PHLX semiconductor index.
- Tomi Railo
- Johan Skoglund
Instalco AB (Buy, TP: SEK52.00) - Still-attractive valuation
We believe accelerating negative organic growth YOY is well-reflected in consensus and market expectations ahead of the Q1 results. Furthermore, 2024 could mark a trough year for EPS should interest rate cuts materialise and sector activity pick up towards end-2024. We believe the stock continues to show attractive risk/reward, and reiterate our BUY and SEK52 target price.
- Douglas Lindahl
Trelleborg (Hold, TP: SEK380.00) - Close to fairly valued in our view
We forecast Q1 sales of SEK8,546m (-1% organic growth YOY) and adj. EBITA of SEK1,479m. We have raised our 2024–2026e adj. EBITA by c9% on average, on the inclusion of the Baron acquisition, our more positive view on the general industrial cycle, and FX movements. We have increased our target price to SEK380 (350) based on our estimate changes and current multiples. However, on our view of limited upside potential and following incremental increases in the valuation (absolutely and relative to o...
- Martin Arnell
Paradox Interactive (Buy, TP: SEK270.00) - Focusing on Q2 releases
Q1 was fairly average for DLC and new releases, with ‘Cities: Skylines 2’ (CS2) DLC not enough to drive a resurgence in player activity. We have cut our 2024e EBIT by ~5% to reflect our lower near-term CS2 sales expectations, but remain confident Paradox will report strong earnings growth in 2024. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK270 (280) ahead of the Q1 report, due at 08:00 CET on 25 April.
- Emil Jonsson
TF Bank (Buy, TP: SEK224.00) - High interest in high interest
Q1 extended TF Bank’s >9-year run of a near-constant >20% ROE. EPS grew by 24% YOY, and the Credit Cards growth outlook remains strong. The loan loss ratio also fell 20bp QOQ. We still see significant upside potential in the stock even on, in our view, our conservative estimates. After increasing our 2025–2026e EPS by 7–12%, we reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK224 (206).
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