reports
- Guy Sips
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Heineken FIRST LOOK: FY25 operating profit +4.4%, FY26 guidance of 2-6...
Heineken's FY25 top line and operating profit figures were slightly better than our forecasts with operating profit in absolute terms in line with consensus. Heineken guides again for sizeable savings efforts in FY26 with operating profit growth guidance calling for a 2-6% range (vs our and consensus forecasts of c. 5%). We still appreciate Heineken for the sizeable self-help initiatives which should support organic earnings growth in the coming years, but acknowledge that the bumpier volume evo...
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
Pharvaris To present clinical data at the AAAAI 2026
Pharvaris will present multiple datasets at AAAAI 2026, including topline RAPIDe-3 results, final CHAPTER-1 data, supporting evidence for the extended-release formulation, AMRA endpoint validation, and results from a new kinin biomarker assay. We look forward to the prophylactic phase 3 (CHAPTER-3) readout in 3Q26 and reiterate our Buy and $ 36 TP.
- Guy Sips
Lotus Bakeries Three Continents, One Momentum: Lotus Turns Up the Heat
We updated our model after Lotus Bakeries delivered in FY25 a 10% revenue increase to a very nice € 1,355m (KBCSe 1,355m, CSS 1,346m), driven by continued strong volume growth in 2H25 for both Lotus Biscoff (57% of branded revenues, +13% y/y) and Lotus Natural Foods (25% of branded, +17% y/y). Lotus Bakeries highlighted that the partnerships with Mondelez advanced strongly, contributing positively to the 2025 revenue. By the end of 2025, Biscoff production expanded to three continents. We welco...
- Guy Sips
- Michiel Declercq
- Guy Sips
Barco Despite US headwinds more or less in line but order cycles short...
FY2025 was more or less in line with our and CSS forecasts, demonstrating resilience amid global challenges and “setting up a foundation for future growth”. We maintain our prudence stance as -while FY2025 shows that Barco can return to sales and margin growth under difficult conditions- the year also exposed clear vulnerabilities—most notably in order intake, which fell 5% YoY (–2% at constant FX) and declined across several divisions and regions. The contraction in orders, combined with the st...
- Michiel Declercq
Philips Strong 4Q25 results and outlook, targets mid-teens margins by ...
Philips reported a strong set of 4Q25 results with the adj. EBITA of € 770m coming in well ahead of expectations (kbcse: € 678m, css: € 672m), predominantly driven by PH. Order intake remained strong at +7%. The FY26 margin outlook of 12.5%-13.0% also came in ahead of expectations (kbcse: 12.3%, css: 12.2%). Together with the CMD that will take place in London today, the group also announced its new 2026-2028 ambitions, including a mid-teens margins by 2028 (kbcse: 13.5%, css 13.6%) and accumula...
- Guy Sips
Biotalys Model update after strategic refocus
We updated our model (New “Accumulate”, New € 5.1 TP) after Biotalys plans a strategic refocus, concentrating resources on its top-priority biofungicide programs. Early-stage activities will be suspended and the organization downsized to cut costs while they claim “protecting long-term platform value”. The shift prioritizes Evoca NG, BioFun-6, and already partnered programs with the Gates Foundation and Syngenta. These measures aim to reduce cash burn by €20m through 2028 and strengthen commerci...
- Guy Sips
Biotalys Refocusing strategy on lead assets and cutting annual cash bu...
We will update our model (from “Buy” to “under review”) after Biotalys plans a strategic refocus, concentrating resources on its top-priority biofungicide programs. Early-stage activities will be suspended and the organization downsized to cut costs while protecting long-term platform value. The shift prioritizes EVOCA NG, BioFun-6, and already partnered programs with the Gates Foundation and Syngenta. These measures aim to reduce cash burn by €20m through 2028 and strengthen commercialization r...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Kristof Samoy
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Wim Hoste
DSM-Firmenich FIRST LOOK: Sale of ANH to CVC for EV of up to € 2.2bn
Dsm-firmenich announced the divestment of its ANH business to CVC, while it will retain a 20% minority stake for now. The deal value (EV of up to € 2.2bn for 100%; implying a c. 7x EV/normalized adjusted EBITDA multiple) is in line with recent market rumours although below our € 3bn forecast, while also other elements in the deal structure are a bit disappointing (price tag included €0.5bn earn-out, a loan & liquidity facility will be provided). Despite the lower than expected ANH deal metrics, ...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Wim Lewi
- Guy Sips
Lotus Bakeries FIRST LOOK : Three Continents, One Momentum: Lotus Turn...
In FY25, Lotus Bakeries delivered a 10% revenue increase to a very nice € 1.355m (KBCSe 1.355m, CSS 1.346m), driven by continued strong volume growth in 2H25 for both Lotus Biscoff (57% of branded revenues, +13% y/y) and Lotus Natural Foods (25% of branded, +17% y/y). Lotus Bakeries highlighted that the partnerships with Mondelez advanced strongly, contributing positively to the 2025 revenue By the end of 2025, Biscoff production expanded to three continents. We welcome that the new production...
- Guy Sips
Melexis In rough weather, exaggeration only deepens the valley
Melexis enters 2026 with a message that is far from triumphant: the recovery is happening, but it remains “an uneven recovery”. 4Q25 delivered growth, yes—but only just—and once again China dictated the rhythm with swings that overshadow structural progress. We updated our model taking into account management insists that FY26 will mark the start of margin improvement, and while the yield normalization story is credible, it does little to offset the uncomfortable reality of flat sales in 1Q an...
- Guy Sips
X Fab Silicon Foundries EV FIRST LOOK : Cautious on near term given on...
We updated our model as 1Q26 revenue is expected to come in within the range of $190-200m (KBCS from the low of the markets ($200.6m while CSS was $ 213.4m) to $ 195m now with an EBITDA margin in the range of 18% and 21% (KBCSe new 21.2%). We regret X-FAB is not providing FY26 guidance at this time due to limited visibility and the current macroeconomic environment. We think CSS will have to lower FY26E forecast substantially (CSS was $ 916.6m sales and 26.3% EBITDA-margin) and as a result we lo...
- Kristof Samoy
Vopak First Reaction - Withdrawal of support by First Nation for REEF ...
Yesterday, Energynow.ca published an article on the withdrawal of support by the Metlakatla First Nation citizens of Canada. Supposedly the Metlakatla First Nation's decision to retract its backing for the nearly completed REEF export project is rooted in concerns that it was not informed of an exclusivity agreement granting REEF an export monopoly, which could harm its economic interests in the rival Trigon terminal where it holds a 10% stake. A recent BC Supreme Court ruling allowing Metlakatl...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Mathijs Geerts Danau
- Wim Lewi
- Kristof Samoy
Ekopak Delivery Waterkracht permit and Dutch wastewater plant acquisit...
Yesterday evening an article was published in the local Antwerp newspaper GVA. It stated Flemish Minister of the Environment Jo Brouns (CD&V) has granted a permit for the Waterkracht project. As a result, all chemical companies in the Port of Antwerp will use purified wastewater to cool their production processes starting at the end of 2027. Earlier on the target was to start commercial operations early 2027 and this is still reflected in our earnings model. We will overhaul our model once it is...
- Jacob Mekhael
Zealand Pharma Model update, multiple important catalysts ahead
We update our Zealand model following the company's recent CMD held in December 2025. Zealand outlined its plans to become a generational metabolic health company, as well as sharing clear targets with 5 product launches in the next 5 years, and to have 10+ clinical programs by 2030. Our model update incorporates adjusted milestone timing from Roche, removes dapiglutide, as well as a few small tweaks on the rare disease pipeline. All in all, this brings us to a new TP of DKK 960 (from DKK 1,120)...
- Guy Sips
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Livio Luyten
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
Dynamic Top Pick List Update February 2026: Removing ASMi; Adding UCB
After today's changes (ASMi out, UCB in), we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates. We remove ASMi from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent share price performance has driven the valuation meaningfully ahead of fundamentals. Since early December, FY27 diluted EPS expectations have risen by a...
EVS EVS BROADCAST EQUIPMENT SA
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
SOF SOFINA SA
IBAB ION BEAM APPLICATIONS SA
ROYAL VOPAK NV
AED AEDIFICA SA
CSM CORBION NV
ABI ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
ARGX ARGEN-X SE
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
AZE AZELIS GROUP NV
DEME DEME GROUP NV
SHUR SHURGARD SELF STORAGE LIMITED
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