reports
- Colin Smith
Tullow Oil | Initiation: Deleveraging targets well within sight
Tullow operates the Jubilee and TEN oil fields offshore Ghana and has just announced the sale of its Gabonese assets for US$300m. Current production and reserves are a substantial c55kboed and 165mmboe, including Gabon. Following a disciplined re-focusing of the business and the sale of its Gabonese assets, the company's de-leveraging targets of net debt under US$1bn and leverage under 1x are well within sight with further options to accelerate the process. Tullow has now returned to sustained p...
- Colin Smith
Polarean Imaging | Investor update presentation confirms thesis
Polarean held a presentation for investors to recap the investment thesis for its unique technology for visualising lung function and provide real life examples of its Xenon MRI imaging in both research and clinical use. Dr Alan Huang, recently appointed VP Global Sales, provided a positive update on the sales pipeline and process. Polarean reaffirmed existing guidance. However, while there was no new news, the presentation certainly helped demonstrate the enthusiasm with which Polarean's techno...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | 1H25 results – Return to double digit growth
Further to the company's interim trading update, the 10% growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA translated into an even more impressive increase in adjusted profit before tax of 21% to US$20.6m and an 18% increase in adjusted EPS. Operating cash conversion hit 110% and period end net cash jumped to US$40.6m. Management report that positive trading has continued into the second half of the year and the Board remains confident in achieving results for the year to June 2025 in line with current mark...
- Colin Smith
Polarean Imaging | Xenon MRI pharma research collaboration
Polarean has announced that its Xenon MRI lung imaging has been selected by a leading global pharma company to be included in a clinical trial due to start in 4Q25. This collaboration opens up a new vertical for Polarean but more importantly provides third party validation of the unmatched lung imaging that Polarean's Xenon MRI system provides. Polarean recently announced a better than expected update for FY24 which, in our view, confirms that the company is on the cusp of hyperbolic growth with...
- Colin Smith
Galliford Try | 1HFY25 results – Increased confidence in FY25
Further to its positive trading update, Galliford Try has delivered another excellent set of results for the half to December underlined by a 37.5% hike in the interim dividend to 5.5p. The company announced adjusted PBT for 1HFY25 of £20.5m, up 22.0% YoY. Despite the increase in consensus forecasts following the trading statement, management now expect revenue and adjusted PBT to be above the top end of the range of market forecasts which currently stand at £1,835m and £36.0m, respectively. Rev...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy | FY24 results - Confident 10% dividend increase
Seplat reported a near doubling in EPS for FY24 to US$0.26 (FY23 US$0.14) which included 19 days of contribution from the newly acquired MPNU assets, now renamed as Seplat Energy Producing Nigeria Unlimited (SEPNU). Excluding SEPNU and net positive unusual items, operating profit came in around 5% ahead of our forecast, we calculate. Adjusted EBITDA increased 20.3% YoY to US$539.0m on a reported basis and down 1.8% for the onshore assets. Net debt ended the year at US$898m, ahead of the US$1.1bn...
- Colin Smith
Polarean Imaging | FY24 update - Even better than expected
Polarean has published a trading update for the year to December which is even better than expected. Revenue for FY24 is anticipated to be US$3.0m-US$3.1m, above guidance of US$2.5m-US$3.0m, and more than treble revenue for FY23; our forecast was US$2.8m. Moreover, net cash at YEFY24 of US$12.1m was well above our forecast of US$10.8m and the company reiterated that it has a cash runway through 1Q26. A YoY jump in sales of over 50% in consumables demonstrates an increase in the number of Xenon M...
- Colin Smith
TheraCryf (TCF) | £4.3m raise to advance Ox-1 to clinical trial readin...
Further to the Chronos acquisition in 2024, TheraCryf has conditionally raised £4.25m to advance its Orexin programme to clinical trial readiness and now has a cash runway through the end of calendar 2026. The company expects to issue 1.7bn shares at 0.25p/share. While the discount is steep, TheraCryf believes it has the most selective Ox-1 inhibitor molecule in drug development with significant patent protection, targeting a market with multi-billion dollar potential for the treatment of addict...
- Sarah Godfrey
BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust (BRFI) | Backing the next wave of...
BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust (BRFI) offers a highly differentiated proposition for emerging markets investors, avoiding the largest markets – which between them tend to account for around 90% of global emerging markets investment – in favour of less researched and often faster-growing countries at an earlier stage of development. Co-managers Sam Vecht, Emily Fletcher and Sudaif Niaz, backed by BlackRock's deep and broad research resources, blend top-down and bottom-up considerations to f...
- Colin Smith
Galliford Try | 1HFY25 Update – Trading ahead of expectations
Galliford Try has released a trading update on its 1HFY25 performance to December which continues to demonstrate the strong progress the company is making towards the 2030 targets it announced last May. Trading is ahead of the Board's expectations and it expects revenue and PBT to be at the upper end of current market forecasts. Consensus estimates were upgraded significantly post the FY24 results with the current upper end of the ranges for revenue and PBT currently standing at £1,835m and £35....
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | 1HFY25 update – double digit growth
Craneware has released a positive update on its 1HFY25 results to the end of December, ahead of their publication which is expected to be on 11 March 2025. Management note another period of positive trading with double-digit growth of c10% in revenue to over US$100m and a similar increase in adjusted EBITDA to US$30.3m. The pace of growth in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) has increased to 3% and Net Revenue Retention was above 100%. Sales included the first major customer contract secured via th...
- Sarah Godfrey
BlackRock Energy & Resources Income | Fuelling the future with flexibl...
BlackRock Energy and Resources Income Trust (BERI) has posted solid NAV and share price total returns in the financial year ended 30 November 2024, outperforming both its AIC peer group and the average for the investment trust universe. BERI – historically a blend of traditional energy and mining stocks – broadened its remit in 2020 to include energy transition plays, with neutral positions of 30% each in conventional energy and energy transition, and 40% in mining. At end-FY24, exposures were b...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - MPNU Completion: Management call feedback
Seplat completed its transformational acquisition of MPNU last week more than doubling production to 120kboed and nearly doubling 2P reserves to 0.9bnboe. The payment on completion of US$672m was funded from existing and new facilities without any new equity. Management highlighted the multiple improved operational and financial metrics resulting from completion and addressed concerns in the market, most notably the reinvestment potential into what has been a well run but cash starved business, ...
- Sarah Godfrey
Supermarket Income REIT | Initiation of Coverage: Bagging a bargain
Supermarket Income REIT (SUPR) is a specialist property fund that seeks to achieve attractive levels of defensive, long-dated income from a portfolio of grocery stores, mainly in the UK although a recent move into France has provided diversification. While supermarket operators' margins have been squeezed in the recent period of higher inflation, market growth remains solid, and consumers are beginning to trade back up to more premium products as they see their wages rise and price increases mod...
- Colin Smith
Duke Capital - 1H25 Results - On Track and Well Funded
Duke Capital has announced interim results for 1H25 which are on track to meet our FY25 forecasts with recurring cash revenue of £12.7m, up 4% YoY. The group deployed over £15m in new capital to its capital partners during the half. Post period end, Duke successfully completed an oversubscribed £23.5m equity raise, materially strengthening its balance sheet and intends future capital funding to be generated by way of a third-party capital model. Duke is trading at a c25% discount to book despite...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy - Transformational MPNU deal completion imminent
Seplat has published the prospectus for its reverse takeover of MPNU with the deal expected to close on Thursday, 12th December. This has been a long time coming and is transformational for the company, more than doubling production to 120kboed and nearly doubling 2P reserves to 0.9bnboe. The final payment on completion is US$672m for a total payment of US$800m including the deposit already paid. Funding is from Seplat's existing cash and revolving credit facility, together with a new US$300m th...
- Colin Smith
TheraCryf |1HFY25 results – Cash guidance confirmed
The first half of FY25 has been a busy one for TheraCryf. The company closed the Chronos acquisition, trebling its pipeline of development assets, and it completed a £0.9m equity raise. The Erasmus University study on SFX-01, the company's lead clinical asset, is making good progress while the granting of a patent covering the company's Orexin-1 molecule by the European Patent Office has just been announced. Despite its advantages, TheraCryf trades on a fraction of the rating of most peers with...
- Sarah Godfrey
All Change? Investing in a year of global elections
The year 2024 has been an extraordinary one for the global electorate, with more than half the world's population going to the polls in elections in 50 countries from Algeria to Venezuela. While some arrived with an element of surprise – from snap elections in France and Japan to the earlier-than-expected date of the UK general election – others, notably the US presidential election, were set long in advance, although even there, the eleventh-hour substitution of the Democrat candidate was an un...
- Sarah Godfrey
AEW UK REIT | Active strategy continues to generate rewards
AEW UK REIT plc (AEWU) is a value-orientated UK real estate investment trust (REIT) with a focus on acquiring mispriced assets and maximising income and capital upside through asset management initiatives. Since our last update, a profitable disposal, new lettings, rental uplifts and lease renegotiations have helped to drive an NAV total return of 10.1% and bring EPRA earnings per share back to fully covering the 2p quarterly dividend, which has been maintained for 36 consecutive quarters since ...
- Colin Smith
Polarean Imaging Initiation - On the cusp of hyperbolic growth
Despite initial FDA approval and grant of the requisite reimbursement codes, investor confidence in Polarean is low, as reflected in the current share price. However, revenue growth is already accelerating and is set to go hyperbolic as Polarean's Xenon MRI platform meets a large unmet clinical need that cannot be satisfied by other methods. Crossing the bridge to profitability will require additional funding but there is a cash runway through 1Q26. Polarean has potential upside many times its c...
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