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Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

AltynGold | Initiation – A golden opportunity

AltynGold is a gold miner in Kazakhstan where a recent 50% hike in processing capacity at its Sekisovskoye mine coupled with leverage to the rising gold price are transforming the company's financial outlook. Despite an exceptional share price performance, the valuation remains low on all measures suggesting very substantial upside remains. AltynGold has a large resource base with more than enough potential to reach its longer-term production target of 100Koz, 80% up on the newly established run...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Tullow Oil | Updates – reserves, Kenya disposal, CEO

Tullow has announced a number of key updates including the appointment of Ian Perks as CEO, completion of its Kenya disposal, and, most recently, a reserves update. As indicated at the interim results, Ghanaian reserves were revised down but we believe the negative adjustment of 7.3mmboe to Proven and Probable (2P) Reserves is likely less than the market feared and should be more than offset by conversion of 18.2mmboe of Contingent Resource into 2P Reserves once the Ghanaian licence extensions t...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Polarean Imaging | 1H25 results – Tough half but robust pipeline

Polarean had a tough first half to June as disruption to US healthcare funding resulted in no additional sales of the company's Xenon MRI systems during the half, notwithstanding a 650% YoY increase in the sales pipeline. The weakness in capital sales was only partially mitigated by a 36% increase in consumables revenue. Cash and net cash ended the half at US$7.3m and the company reiterated its cash runway through 2Q26. Full year revenue guidance was reduced to US$2.5m-US$3.5m (from US$5m-US$6m)...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

BlackRock Energy & Resources Income | Remaining flexible amid a challe...

BlackRock Energy and Resources Income Trust (BERI) is already bouncing back from a challenging first half of FY25 (to 31 May), with NAV and share price total returns of c 19% in H225 to date. Portfolio managers Tom Holl (a mining expert) and Mark Hume (an energy specialist) have taken advantage of share price weakness in the energy transition space (largely sparked by fears over the anti-environmentalist agenda of the new US administration) to move to an overweight position in the segment for th...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

Social Housing REIT (SOHO) | Initiation: Under New Management

Social Housing REIT (SOHO) has seen its share price advance by c 18% since the appointment of new manager Atrato Partners at the start of 2025. The favourable market reaction has been underpinned by Atrato's efforts to tackle legacy issues with housing providers, ensuring the provision of quality, specially adapted homes, reducing costs and working with the Regulator of Social Housing (RSH) to improve practices and sustainability in the lease-based Specialised Supported Housing (SSH) sector.

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy | Positive CMD for the enlarged group

Seplat held a hugely positive Capital Markets Day event yesterday for the enlarged group. For the first time, the company provided five-year guidance (2026-30) including a 50% increase in production to c200kboed by 2030 and the release of headline results of a new Competent Persons Report that saw a near doubling in Group reserves and resources. The company also announced a new dividend policy including a minimum annual dividend of US$120m with an increase in the dividend from 3Q25 to USc5/share...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Galliford Try | FY25 results – Strong performance, confident outlook

Galliford Try delivered a fifth year of sequential growth with results ahead of consensus expectations which were increased following the positive trading statement in July and will likely have to be raised again. Management's confidence in the outlook was underscored with a 23% hike in the full-year dividend to 19.0p and the announcement of a further £10m share buyback programme. The company reiterated its 2030 targets of >£2.2bn in revenue and a 4% adjusted divisional operating margin, having ...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Craneware Group | FY25 results – delivering on the promise

Craneware's FY25 results for the year to June confirmed the strength heralded with the July trading update. Net profit came in even stronger than our forecast, and the company announced a 16% increase in the final dividend to 18.5p, also ahead of our forecast. In our view, these results confirm that Craneware is delivering on the benefits promised by its historic investment in the Trisus platform including unlocking the full value of the Sentry acquisition. We make minimal changes to our profit ...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Tullow Oil | Revising Brent forecast

We are revising our Brent price forecast to US$70/bbl for 2025 and to US$72.5/bbl for 2026 with US$75/bbl flat thereafter, from US$75/bbl held flat from 2025. Despite fears of oversupply there is little evidence of a glut emerging and evident pressure on US drilling signals the need for higher prices to maintain activity. We have also reduced our production forecast by c4% to reflect recent Jubilee underperformance. In combination, that leads to material reductions in our forecasts for 2025/26, ...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust (BRFI) | Big opportunities in the...

BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust (BRFI) offers a unique proposition for emerging markets investors, avoiding the largest markets – which between them account for the vast majority of global EM investment – in favour of less researched and often faster-growing countries at an earlier stage of development. Co-managers Sam Vecht and Emily Fletcher, backed by BlackRock's deep and broad research resources, blend top-down and bottom-up considerations to find investment opportunities in smaller eme...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Tullow Oil | 1HFY25 - Results belie strategic progress

Tullow reported sharply reduced results for 1H25, on lower production and weaker oil prices. However, the financial performance belies the underlying strategic progress the company made in the half towards refinancing its debt. That includes generating US$380m in 2025 disposal proceeds, with US$300m already received in July, together with significant reductions in costs and interest which will benefit the second half, as well as entering a MoU to extend the Ghana licences to 2040. Production gui...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Seplat Energy | 2Q25 results - reinstating forecasts

Seplat reported a strong operating performance in 1H25 with production of 135kboed up 178% YoY, reflecting both the impact of the MPNU acquisition and increased production from its legacy onshore business. The cash flow performance was particularly strong with net debt further reduced and net debt/EBITDA at just 0.53x. The 2Q25 dividend was maintained at the new USc4.6 run rate resulting in a 53% YoY increase in the 1H25 dividend. Current guidance for 2025 was maintained. Seplat will hold a Capi...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Craneware Group | FY25 update – Confident in double digit growth

Craneware has released a very positive update ahead of its FY25 results, highlighting revenue growth of 9% YoY to US$205.7m with even stronger growth of 12% in adjusted EBITDA to over US$65m. The company ended the period with net cash of US$28.2m. Moreover, Annual Recurring Revenue increased 7% to US$184m (2% YoY growth in FY24) and Net Revenue Retention was even more impressive, increasing to 107% (FY24 98%). All of which confirms that the company is really beginning to press the accelerator on...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

TheraCryf (TCF) | AGM updates on OX-1 and SFX-01 programmes

TheraCryf held its AGM yesterday at which management emphasised its focus on brain disorders and specifically on advancing the Orexin (Ox-1) programme acquired in the Chronos transaction to clinical stage readiness by the end of calendar 2026, for which the company is now fully funded. The legacy synthetic Sulforaphane molecule (SFX-01) continues to be progressed in third-party funded programmes, most notably in the potential treatment for the brain cancer Glioblastoma at the Erasmus Medical Cen...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Galliford Try | FY25 Trading Update - Results beat expected, again

Galliford Try's results continue to affirm the strength of its strategy, market positioning, execution, and risk management. After a strong performance for 1HFY25, full-year guidance to June is again for a beat to expectations with revenue and adjusted profit before tax expected to slightly exceed the top end of market forecasts, currently standing at £1,885.6m and £41.6m, respectively. That is despite a 14.4% hike in the consensus forecast for adjusted profit before tax since January. The comp...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

Schroder AsiaPacific Fund | Dedicated followers of quality at reasonab...

In an asset class that is perhaps more susceptible to ‘fashion' than others, with hot-money investors chasing the next big thing, SDP is reassuringly sensible in its focus on finding quality, well-governed and return-generative Asia-Pacific companies at valuations that leave a margin of safety to support long-term growth. The managers are not afraid to back their best ideas – the top 10 stocks (of c 50) account for more than 45% of the portfolio – but they also have a large, dedicated and locall...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

JP Morgan Emerging Markets | Long-established fund with focus on quali...

While it may not quite be the oldest of the emerging markets investment trusts (Fidelity Emerging Markets [formerly Genesis Emerging Markets] and Templeton Emerging Markets were both launched in 1989), JPMorgan Emerging Markets (JMG) does have the longest record of consistent management, with Austin Forey having run the portfolio on broadly the same lines for more than 30 years. J.P. Morgan Asset Management (JPMAM) has a wealth of analyst resources covering not just the well-known EM companies, ...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

BlackRock Frontiers Investment Trust (BRFI) | Pioneers of smaller emer...

With a diversified portfolio of companies based or operating in some of the world's least developed economies and/or capital markets, BRFI is the only investment trust offering global exposure to frontier markets, and as such is the obvious choice for investors who believe that today's underdeveloped markets could be the economic powerhouses of tomorrow. The increasingly fractured geopolitical backdrop presents an uncorrelated value opportunity in countries that are not aligned with either east ...

Sarah Godfrey
  • Sarah Godfrey

Beyond Barriers - EM opportunities in an era of trade tensions

Emerging and frontier markets are home to more than 85% of the world's population and generate over 40% of global GDP, yet make up only a small fraction of investors' portfolios. Allocations to these less developed – and generally faster-growing – economies have suffered in the era of tech-centred US exceptionalism, yet some of the world's most dominant technology companies are based in emerging markets. While Donald Trump's ‘Liberation Day' tariffs have sparked negative headlines regarding expo...

Colin Smith
  • Colin Smith

Polarean Imaging | Ascend representative agreement

Polarean has signed a Representative Agreement with Ascend Imaging LLC (Ascend) covering four specific US states. Under the agreement Ascend will act as a non-exclusive, independent manufacturer's representative supporting the promotion and sale of Polarean's Xenon MRI lung-imaging platform. Polarean has potential upside many times its current market capitalisation, we calculate, based on observable deal metrics and our NPV analysis, while the valuation is so low, it could attract take-over inte...

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