reports
- Colin Smith
Personal Group | FY25 results – A brilliant year of progress
Personal Group has delivered an excellent set of results for 2025, as presaged in the trading statement. Double-digit revenue growth translated into a 32% YoY increase in EPS to 23.3p and the dividend increased by 41% to 23.3p, in line with the growth in earnings and the new 100% payout policy. The strength of revenue growth in the core insurance business was especially notable, and the company delivered higher growth on all key metrics than peers. We make minimal changes to our forecasts for 20...
- Sarah Godfrey
Social Housing REIT (SOHO) | No places like HOME
The supported housing investment sector took a significant reputational hit as a result of the failure of Home REIT (HOME). HOME has been suspended from trading for more than three years and is now in managed wind-down, offering little hope of any meaningful value recovery for its large base of both professional and individual investors. But while this debacle has undoubtedly been painful for all concerned (not least the vulnerable occupiers of HOME's ostensibly ‘modern, high-quality accommodati...
- Colin Smith
TheraCryf | Ox-1 Imminent start of final toxicology study
TheraCryf has now completed the preclinical dose range finding studies for its Orexin-1 (Ox-1) blocker lead asset. That clears the way for the imminent start of the 28-day toxicology study which is the final major preclinical study prior to submission for regulatory approval in human clinical trials. TheraCryf is on track to complete all animal studies in 3Q26 and be ready to commence clinical trials in humans by the end of 2026, a key value inflection point, for which the company is fully funde...
- Colin Smith
Personal Group | Initiation: Performing well by doing well
Personal Group combines a UK targeted affordable insurance business operating a unique business model together with a mainly SaaS based Benefits & Rewards business. The re-focused group has ambitious growth aspirations through 2030 targeting revenue of over £100m and generating EBITDA of £30m. Personal Group is growing rapidly with increasing profitability and is now committed to a 100% dividend payout policy. We forecast revenue to hit £55m by 2026 with net profit up 24% to £8.1m and an increas...
- Sarah Godfrey
Foresight Environmental Infrastructure (FGEN) | Diversification boosts...
Renewable energy infrastructure funds have had a torrid few years given rising interest rates and inflation, higher discount rates and a fractious political and economic environment. FGEN was arguably already better placed than many given its diversified portfolio – with no offshore wind and a higher volume of baseload power, meaning far less intermittency or storage concerns than a pure wind or solar fund. Its moves into more esoteric growth assets may have raised eyebrows, but with constructio...
- Sarah Godfrey
Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT) | Future-facing fund offers global dive...
While some trusts launched at the tail end of the post-global financial crisis boom in alternative assets have faltered, Pantheon Infrastructure (PINT)'s performance to date has been impressive, with sector-beating returns in both share price and NAV terms and a sharply narrowing discount to NAV. The exposure to digital and energy themes (including both data centres and the power delivery needed to operate them) gives the trust ‘picks and shovels' exposure to the AI story without overly dominati...
- Sarah Godfrey
Building the future | Growth themes in infrastructure investment
Infrastructure and renewable energy funds were the darlings of the investment trust world just a few years ago, dominating both primary and secondary issuance through a combination of attractive income returns and a compelling investment story founded in the need to develop better, cleaner, greener and higher-tech infrastructure around the world. Yet changing market dynamics have caused a considerable fall from favour, with 10 fewer trusts across both sectors than in mid-2023 – and still more he...
- Colin Smith
Galliford Try | 1HFY26 – Strong momentum; beating expectations
Galliford Try has reported an excellent first half to December demonstrating strong momentum that will drive a further upgrade to market forecasts. Revenue and adjusted PBT are both now expected to be above the top end of consensus despite forecasts being raised following the trading statement. Adjusted EPS increased 18.5% YoY to 18.6p, supporting an 18.2% increase in the interim dividend to 6.5p. The divisional adjusted operating margin jumped 54bps to 3.2% and is rapidly closing in on the 2030...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | 1HFY26 -Delivering double digit growth
Craneware reported a strong set of results for the half year to December. The trading statement had already flagged double digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and that translated through to earnings with adjusted pre-tax profit up 14.1% to US$23.5m and adjusted EPS up 16.0% to USc58.7 supporting an 11.1% increase in the interim dividend to 15.0p. While we leave our forecasts unchanged, consistent with guidance that Craneware expects FY26 results to be in line with expectations, there looks to be sco...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy | FY25 - Results and dividend ahead of expectations
Seplat's results for FY25 demonstrated the transformational impact of the MPNU acquisition and came in ahead of our forecasts despite lower production and price realisations in the fourth quarter. The strength of the performance was demonstrated by a 20% YoY hike in the quarterly dividend taking the full year dividend to USc25, up 52% YoY. Net cash generation was strong and with capex coming in a little lower than guidance, net debt fell 25% YoY to US$673m, despite hefty true-up payments to Exxo...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | Software apocalypse is an opportunity
Craneware has been caught in the general sell-off in software stocks prompted by concerns that Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a serious threat to the industry. That chuck the baby out with the bathwater reaction has driven Craneware to unprecedentedly low valuations despite the company's embedded position in US hospitals for its value cycle software backed by its proprietary data lake. Craneware is more likely to be a beneficiary than a victim of AI, as already demonstrated by the pace at which...
- Colin Smith
Sulnox | 3Q/9M26 update – revenue +161% YoY
Sulnox reported revenue for the nine months to December of £1,694k, up 161% YoY, continuing the blistering rate of sales growth the company is now delivering. Trading has remained strong into 4QFY26 with £335k of sales already secured together with a robust committed pipeline for delivery during the quarter. The cash position benefited from £0.4m raised through warrant exercise in December with cash and net cash of £1.1m at the end of 3QFY26. We make no changes to our forecasts which could prove...
- Colin Smith
AltynGold | 4Q25 update – record quarter, record year
AltynGold has published its 4Q25 update confirming that the company had a record year for production, processing, gold sales, and revenue. That reflected the combination of the processing capacity expansion at the Sekisovskoye mine completed at the end of 2024, the leap in the price of gold and a strong operational performance, including a fifth year of zero-incidents. Revenue for 2025 of US$175m was almost exactly in line with our forecast. Gold production guidance for 2026 is 52-55koz which lo...
- Colin Smith
Galliford Try | 1HFY26 trading statement – ahead of expectations, agai...
Galliford Try has released a trading update for the half-year to December 2025. While the pace of growth YoY has slowed, as anticipated, it has still exceeded the expectations of the Board and the market. The company is guiding for FY26 revenue towards the upper end of current market forecasts and slightly above the top end of forecasts for adjusted PBT, currently standing at £1,922m and £47.7m, respectively. Business performance has been strong across the group with the transition from the AMP7...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | 1HFY26 trading update – strong performance
Craneware has released a positive update on its results for the half-year through end December. The company reported strong YoY growth of 6% in revenue, and 10.2% in adjusted EBITDA, despite disruption connected with the stay of implementation of the HRSA Rebate Model Pilot. Annual Recurring Revenue increased 4% and Net Revenue Retention exceeded 100%. The EBITDA margin was 31.5% continuing Craneware's long track record of reliably delivering a 30% plus margin even as it continues to invest in p...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | 1HFY26 trading update – strong performance
Craneware has released a positive update on its results for the half-year through end December. The company reported strong YoY growth of 6% in revenue, and 10.2% in adjusted EBITDA, despite disruption connected with the stay of implementation of the HRSA Rebate Model Pilot. Annual Recurring Revenue increased 4% and Net Revenue Retention exceeded 100%. The EBITDA margin was 31.5% continuing Craneware's long track record of reliably delivering a 30% plus margin even as it continues to invest in p...
- Sarah Godfrey
Tritax Big Box REIT (BBOX) | Logistics specialists continue to deliver
In a period of major upheaval and consolidation in the investment company REIT space, the survivors have tended to be those that offer differentiated propositions within strong niches. BBOX is both the first mover and the last man standing in the specialist UK logistics subsector, and has built an impressive asset base with a strong tenant line-up and significant reversionary potential that can be captured through proactive management of lease events. Supply chain fulfilment remains at the core ...
- Sarah Godfrey
BlackRock American Income (BRAI) | An information advantage for the in...
The US equity market has proved notoriously difficult for active fund managers to outperform, a phenomenon often attributed to the ‘efficiency' of the market – in essence, the idea that it is hard to gain an edge when all investors in theory have access to the same information. BRAI's new strategy offers an interesting twist to this argument: in an age awash with information, it makes use of machine learning and computing power to analyse every relevant earnings call, analyst report, news item, ...
- Sarah Godfrey
JPMorgan European Growth & Income (JEGI) | Pragmatic approach and 4% p...
JEGI's managers describe the trust as offering ‘income without compromise', given its capital growth focus and NAV-based distribution policy. Nonetheless, the value tilt of the investment approach helps to ensure a decent underlying dividend yield, while the quality bias means the team is confident in avoiding value traps. The ‘go anywhere' nature of the portfolio means it can hold low-yielding growth stocks such as semiconductor equipment maker ASML (dividend yield of 0.7%) alongside the likes ...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy | Updating forecasts
We are updating our estimates to incorporate the strong 9M25 results, the guidance given at the Capital Markets Day (CMD) and the positive impact of conversion of the onshore production to Petroleum Industry Act terms from 2026, partly offset by lowered oil price assumptions. That results in significant increases to our prior forecasts for net profit and dividend, notwithstanding an average cUS$5/bbl reduction in our Brent price forecast through 2027. Seplat continues to trade well below peer av...
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