reports
- Colin Smith
Duke Capital - Initiation - Making high returns supporting SMEs
Duke Capital provides long-term hybrid capital finance to lower-middle market SMEs in a business model unique in the UK. Duke earns an attractive 12%-14% cash yield on initial investment generating reliable cash revenue of c£30m pa, with multiple upside kickers which have generated high returns on recycled investment. Despite increasing returns over WACC, Duke is trading at a discount to its historic rating, which we believe represents a significant opportunity for investors. The company has ju...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | Positive AGM Update
Craneware has released a positive update ahead of the AGM today and announced changes to the Non-Executive Directorate. The company confirmed that the positive momentum seen in FY24 has continued into the current year. Craneware reiterated its confidence in achieving growth acceleration over the near term. The FY24 results confirmed that the full benefits of the transition to the cloud based Trisus platform are beginning to shine through which then prompted us to raise our forecast for revenue ...
- Sarah Godfrey
All Change? Investing in a Year of Global Elections
This year has been an extraordinary one for the global electorate, with more than half the world's population going to the polls in elections in 50 countries from Algeria to Venezuela. With the US Presidential election on 5 November now only a week away, all eyes are on the world's largest economy, where fireworks are widely expected in a contest with only one certain outcome: a different president from the incumbent Joe Biden. Meanwhile, the UK's new Labour government – which has arguably faile...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy: 9M24 results – Quarterly dividend hiked 20%
Seplat continued to deliver a strong operating performance in FY24 with 9M24 underlying revenue up 6% on roughly flat production. That was reflected in cash generation, with a further significant reduction in net debt to US$270m. ANOH start-up has been delayed to 1H25 but this is far outweighed by Ministerial consent for the transformational MPNU transaction which is now progressing towards completion. Production guidance was narrowed to 46kboed-50kboed with an unchanged mid-point of 48kboed and...
- Colin Smith
Galliford Try | FY24 results – top end results, distributions hiked
Another set of results, another beat to expectations. After a particularly strong 2HFY24 performance, Galliford Try beat the top end of consensus expectations for revenue and nearly did the same for adjusted profit before tax, notwithstanding hefty upgrades following the positive FY24 trading update. The strength of the performance was underscored by a 48% hike in the dividend for the year to 15.5p, more than 20% above the top end of consensus, together with the announcement of a further £10m sh...
- Colin Smith
Diaceutics | 1H24 Results – Return to Profitability in Sight
Diaceutics has reported results for 1H24 in accordance with the trading statement from July which translated into a net loss for the half of £2.6m with negative EBITDA of £1.3m. The reduced financials reflect the continuing high pace of development and data acquisition for the DXRX platform together with an increased focus on marketing, which raised costs; head count ended the period at 206, 28% higher YoY. However, the company reiterated its guidance that the two-year phase of accelerated inves...
- Colin Smith
Trustpilot | 1HFY24 results – Executing on strategy
Trustpilot reported results for 1H24 in line with the trading statement, including a 19% YoY increase in bookings to US$118m on a constant currency (cc) basis, a 2ppt increase in Last Twelve Months net dollar retention rate to 101% and group revenue of US$100m, up 18% with annual recurring revenue up 17% to US$211m. The company became profitable at the operating level in the first half for the first time and reported a net profit of US$7.7m (1H23 (US$2.5m)). Adjusted EBITDA came in ahead of expe...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | FY24 results - Trisus delivering, raising forecasts
Craneware reported FY24 results slightly ahead of its trading statement, including a 9% YoY increase in revenue. Further to the results, we have raised our forecasts for revenue growth to an average of c8.5% from c6.0%, including over 9% growth this year, which flows through to our earnings forecasts and also indicates a large build up of net cash on the balance sheet, providing management with optionality for further distribution or investment. Our discounted cash flow (DCF) based valuation a...
- Colin Smith
NextSource Materials | Molo update - upgrade completed
NextSource has announced the completion of the planned screening equipment upgrades at the company's Molo graphite mine in Madagascar. The equipment in the screening circuit has been successfully upgraded and the company has also taken the opportunity to install additional process plant upgrades while undertaking the work on the screening circuit. The Molo mine is now meeting or exceeding recovery and grade expectations for its SuperFlake® graphite concentrate with on-spec material being transpo...
- Colin Smith
Seplat Energy: 6M24 results – Solid half, better to come
Seplat delivered a solid performance in the first half of the year with production at 48.4kboed at the mid-point of guidance, unchanged at 44-52kboed. That translated into EPS of US$0.07, flat YoY and the quarterly dividend was maintained at the current run rate of US$0.03. Adjusted EBITDA increased 13.3% YoY to US$267.3m while net cash generation bounced back from the weak performance in 1Q24. ANOH remains on track for first gas in 3Q24. Detail on progress of the transformational MPNU acquisiti...
- Colin Smith
Alphawave Semi | 2Q24 trading update - bookings +27% YoY
Alphawave announced a third consecutive quarter of bookings over US$100m with bookings for 2Q24 of US$107m, up 27% YoY. The company also had a record quarter for design wins with 14 in total from new and existing customers, several of which were for hyperscalers and leading semiconductor companies. Wins included not just those for the company's advanced connectivity products but also for its new ARM-based compute chiplet solutions, as the company broadens out its product offering. Evidence conti...
- Colin Smith
Diaceutics | 1H24 trading update - continued strong performance
Diaceutics has continued its strong performance and growth across the business in 1H24. The company expects to report revenue for the half of c£12.3m, up 24% YoY or up 28% on a constant currency basis. The quality of earnings continues to improve with approximately 55% of all revenue in the period being recurring (1HFY23 47%, FY23 52%). Cash and net cash at 30 June were £16.7m, flat with YEFY23, despite continued investment into the business, in line with the accelerated growth strategy. The res...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | FY24 trading statement - better than expected
Craneware has reported strong growth for FY24 guiding to revenue in excess of US$188m, above the top end of current market expectations, and adjusted EBITDA of at least cUS$58m, at the top end of expectations. The group continues to pay down debt ahead of schedule. We will revise our figures on the full-year results, with a likely increase on the cards. We calculate a DCF based fair value of 2,541p, 10% above the current share price which could easily prove conservative on stronger medium term r...
- Colin Smith
Trustpilot | 1HFY24 trading statement - strong growth
Trustpilot has reported expected growth in bookings for 1H24 in constant currency terms (cc) of 19% to US$118m with similar growth rates in annual recurring revenue and reported revenue. What is likely to please the markets in particular, is the growth in bookings from North America which was 23% in cc terms and suggests that the revised go-to-market strategy is working while confirming that the Trustpilot proposition does indeed have traction in the huge US market. Current guidance of mid-teens...
- Colin Smith
Galliford Try | FY24 trading statement - Another beat
Galliford Try continues to outperform expectations. The company expects revenue and pre-exceptional profit before tax for FY24 to exceed the upper end of current forecasts. That implies the second half exceeded the first half for revenue and may have matched the profit performance putting the company on track to deliver revenue growth of at least 18% YoY with an improved margin. Average month-end cash of £155m also exceeded guidance of £150m with cash and net cash ending the year at £227m togeth...
- Sarah Godfrey
AEW UK REIT | Initiation: Proven record of value creation
AEW UK REIT plc (AEWU) is a UK real estate investment trust (REIT) with a difference: it is highly focused on value investment, acquiring mispriced assets and then maximising income and unlocking capital upside through asset management initiatives. Launched in May 2015, AEWU has paid dividends of 2p per quarter – the highest gross dividend payment in its peer group, equating to a current dividend yield of 9.2% – for the last 34 consecutive quarters (many peers cut their dividends during the pand...
- Colin Smith
Craneware Group | Microsoft Alliance to bring multiple benefits
Craneware has announced the formation of an extensive alliance with Microsoft Azure, its leading cloud partner, which will leverage Azure's capabilities, increase access for customers to Craneware's products, and improve Craneware's cost efficiency. Craneware's ability to partner with Microsoft in this way is a demonstration of the strength of Craneware's position in the US healthcare market for value cycle software, and furthers its ambition to become ubiquitous in US hospitals with enhanced pr...
- Colin Smith
NextSource Materials | Proposed Saudi Arabian battery anode facility
NextSource has published an important update on its global active anode material strategy which follows hard on the heels of the proposed IFC debt funding for the expansion of the company's Molo graphite mine to 150kt pa. NextSource has released the results of a study on a potential 20kt pa Battery Anode Facility to be built in Saudi Arabia with contemplated expansion to 100kt pa. The initial plant could have an unlevered post-tax net present value of US$677m, using an 8% discount rate, generat...
- Colin Smith
Avacta Group | AGM update – Good progress in Arm 2 testing
Avacta has announced an update ahead of its AGM today. The key highlight is that dosing in the second cohort of the two weekly clinical test of AVA6000 (Arm 2 of Phase 1) has been successfully completed without dose limiting toxicities being observed and that dosing is now ongoing in cohort 3. That keeps the company on track to commence the dose expansion Phase 1b efficacy study in 2H24 when it also expects to present further data from the AVA6000 trial. In addition, Avacta has announced the for...
- Sarah Godfrey
Private Equity: Stick or twist? Avoiding the ‘pig in the python'
After a period of record fundraising and with more than $1tn of ‘dry powder' on the sidelines awaiting investment, private equity (PE) has had a more difficult time in the past two years as inflation and interest rates have increased. The IPO market has been subdued following strong years in 2020 and 2021, challenging the traditional PE model, which relies on a steady cycle of exits in order to fund existing commitments and make new investments. One leading US private equity investor has likened...
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