reports
- ARM Research
Harvest Season, Lower Fuel Prices Slow Inflation in April 2025
After a sharp rise in March 2025 to 24.23% YoY, Nigeria’s headline inflation softened by 52 basis points (bps) to 23.71% Year-on-Year (YoY) in April 2025. This moderation was driven by declines in both food inflation (down 53bps to 21.26% YoY from 21.79% YoY) and core inflation (down 105bps to 23.39% YoY from 24.43% YoY), signaling a broad-based easing in price pressures.
- ARM Research
- Callista Chileke
Guinness Nigeria Plc 9M:2025 Earnings Note | Brewing a Comeback
Guinness Nigeria is charting a new course and this time it is under new leadership. With the Tolaram Group now steering the ship and cost-saving measures like the halt in International Premium Spirits (IPS) imports, we are seeing strong signs of a turnaround. Our latest report, “Brewing a Comeback”, dives into the business’ 9M:2025 numbers and factors behind the company’s recovery. Guinness currently trades at a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 26.06x, though slightly above the industry average ...
- ARM Research
- Callista Chileke
BUA Foods Q1:2025 Earnings Note | Sustained Growth Momentum
In Q1:2025, BUA Foods delivered another strong performance, with profit after tax more than doubling year-on-year. This impressive bottom-line growth was supported by modest revenue growth of 23.85% YoY, improved cost efficiency, and a strategic focus on expanding production and market reach. Beyond the numbers, BUA Foods is clearly positioning itself for long-term dominance. With ongoing investments in production capacity, new product introductions such as the 25kg Midi-Bulk Macaroni Pack, a...
- ARM Research
- Lutfullahi Aderibigbe
Nascon Allied Industries Plc Q1:2025 Earnings Note | Beats Growth Ex...
NASCON had a strong start to the year, with revenue up 77.2% YoY to NGN41.85bn and profit before tax surging 559% to NGN11.31bn. Growth was driven by higher volumes and pricing in salt and seasoning, tighter cost control, and a steep drop in FX losses (NGN55.4mn vs. NGN3.05bn in Q1:2024). Finance income also jumped 163%, further lifting earnings. While we like the company's operational momentum and strategy execution, the current share price of NGN53 (as of April 29, 2025) trades above our revi...
- ARM Research
- Callista Chileke
Nigerian Breweries Q1:2025 Earnings Note | Back on the Profitability P...
Just as we expected, Nigerian Breweries bounced back to profitability in Q1:2025. After the last two years of losses, the company swung back to profit in Q1:2025, thanks to strong sales, aggressive advertising, smarter cost controls, and less FX pain. Additionally, the company is not just brewing beer anymore. With full ownership of Distell Nigeria now in the bag, NB looks set to deepen its footprint beyond its traditional base and expand into wines, spirits and flavored alcoholic beverages. ...
- Ameerat Adamu
- ARM Research
- ARM Research
- Oyinkansola Aregbesola
Access Holdings Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Core Income Boost Gross Ear...
In its recently released audited 2024FY results, Access Holdings’ Gross Earnings grew by 87.72% YoY to NGN4.87trn mainly due to the increase in interest income (+110.38% YoY to NGN3.48trn) and non-interest income (+47.86% YoY to NGN1.02trn). Elsewhere, Operating Expenses increased by 107.47% YoY to NGN1.45trn, following higher personnel expenses, admin expenses and IT & e-business expenses in the period. Profit Before Tax (PBT) and Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 18.93% YoY and 3.70% YoY eac...
- ARM Research
- Oyinkansola Aregbesola
Dangote Cement Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Forging Ahead
Dangote Cement Plc (DANGCEM) delivered strong revenue growth in 2024FY, driven by effective price adjustments and consistent sales, demonstrating resilience against a challenging macroeconomic backdrop. While the company successfully managed inflationary pressures and currency depreciation, rising operating costs and increased finance charges limited overall profitability. In 2025FY, DANGCEM is positioned for improved earnings, supported by capacity expansion, cost-optimization initiatives, a...
- ARM Research
- Oyinkansola Aregbesola
Zenith Bank Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Interest & Trading Income Drive...
Zenith bank's growth trajectory was underpinned by robust earnings expansion, driven by impressive gains in both interest and non-interest income streams, benefitting from the high-interest rate environment. However, the expansion came with rising operational costs, as the bank faced increased personnel expenses alongside higher fuel and maintenance costs. These factors contributed to a substantial uptick in operating expenses, reflecting the broader inflationary pressures affecting the econom...
- ARM Research
- Oyinkansola Aregbesola
GTCO 2024FY Earnings Note | Strong Core Banking Income
GTCo continued its strong growth, increasing earnings from both interest and fees, benefiting from the high-interest rate environment. While operating costs rose due to higher staff salaries and increased spending on technology, the bank managed its expenses more efficiently than its peers, keeping its cost-to-income ratio lower. Overall, GTCo achieved impressive profit growth while delivering strong returns for investors.
- ARM Research
- Oyinkansola Aregbesola
UBA Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Higher Interest Income amid Normalizati...
UBA’s 2024 earnings surged impressively, driven by a significant expansion in core banking activities. Benefiting from a favorable interest rate environment, the bank leveraged its extensive customer base and innovative financial products to deepen market penetration, resulting in substantial growth in interest-related income. However, this success was tempered by a decline in non-interest revenue streams, primarily due to the normalization of non-interest income after a year of high gains in FX...
- ARM Research
- Callista Chileke
Nestlé Nigeria PLC 2024FY Earnings Note | In Need of Rescue
Nestlé continued to face pressure from harsh macroeconomic conditions and a growing debt profile in 2024, raising concerns about the company’s ability to meet its debt obligations. However, we believe that corporate actions may be underway to steer the business away from the brink of financial distress. While our concerns regarding Nestlé’s debt burden remain valid, we anticipate a gradual recovery in earnings as macroeconomic conditions begin to stabilize in 2025.
- Ameerat Adamu
- ARM Research
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Macroeconomic Co...
MTN Nigeria Communications Plc (MTNN) recorded strong revenue growth in 2024FY, driven by expanding data, voice and fintech services. The company benefited from increased demand for digital connectivity and financial services, which helped offset the impact of currency devaluation, rising inflation, and high interest rates. However, profitability declined significantly, as FX losses, higher network operating costs, and elevated lease expenses exerted pressure on margins. Looking ahead, MTNN’s...
- Ameerat Adamu
- ARM Research
BUA Cement Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Modest Gain amidst Rising Expens...
Despite a tough macroeconomic environment in 2024FY, BUA Cement Plc. (BUACEMENT) delivered strong revenue growth despite rising costs and currency volatility. The company leveraged strategic price adjustments and higher sales volumes to boost top-line performance, partially offsetting increased production expenses and FX losses. However, elevated operating and finance costs weighed on profitability, driven by inflationary pressures and higher interest expenses. In 2025FY, BUACEMENT’s profitab...
- ARM Research
February 2025 Inflation Report | Headline Inflation Drops to 23.18%
According to NBS, Headline inflation in February 2025 declined by 130 basis points (bps) to 23.18% YoY, from 24.48% YoY in January 2025. The decline is attributable to the moderation in fuel prices, relative stability of the Naira as well the recent rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). On a Month-on-Month (MoM) basis, headline inflation dropped sharply to 2.04% from 10.68% in January 2025, following the rebasing of the CPI.
- ARM Research
Monthly Market Update | February 2025
The stock market sustained its positive trend in February 2025, closing up by 3.18% MoM. However, towards the end of the month, we observed that investors began to shift their focus towards the fixed income market, where yields have been on a downward trend. We think investors are trying to take advantage of the current high yield environment before the MPC goes on a rate-cut spree starting from their next meeting in May 2025. Therefore, in March 2025, we expect selloffs to continue, whether ...
- Ameerat Adamu
- ARM Research
Lafarge Africa Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Resilience amid Headwinds
Lafarge Africa Plc (WAPCO) demonstrated robust resilience in 2024FY despite significant macroeconomic headwinds, delivering strong revenue growth and overall financial performance. The company effectively managed costs and drove bold innovation, launching three new products during the year. We believe the company will continue this profitability trajectory. WAPCO's profitability is expected to continue its positive trend in 2025FY, driven by projected increases in sales volume stemming from F...
- ARM Research
Unilever Nigeria Plc 2024FY Earnings Note | Growth & Resilience
Unilever Nigeria Plc turned the tide in 2024, posting a profit after shutting down its loss making Home Care segment. A surge in revenue reflected strong demand across product lines, while a revaluation gain and restructuring writeback provided much needed relief. Despite rising inflation, naira devaluation, and surging operating expenses, the company’s strategic cost-cutting efforts helped it return to profitability.
- ARM Research
BUA Foods PLC 2024FY Earnings Note | Still Soldiering On
BUAFOODS has remained resilient in the face of turbulence in the consumer goods sector, and 2024 was not any different. The company’s revenue has continued to grow, recording a 109% YoY increase in 2024, and with plans to expand its production capacity, we think the company will continue on this profitability trajectory. While we hold a favorable outlook for the business’ future, we hold a reservation that pose as a risk to our outlook. To find out the strategy you should take on BUAFOODS as ...
- ARM Research
Nigeria's Economy Expands by 3.40% in 2024 | Q4:2024 & 2024FY GDP Repo...
Despite the tough macroeconomic environment that we experienced in 2024, the Nigerian economy stood strong and grew by 3.40% YoY, a faster rate compared to 2023 (2.74% YoY). For context, in 2023, inflation averaged just 24.52% (vs. 2024 average: 33.18%), exchange rate averaged NGN645.92/USD (vs. 2024 average: NGN1,479.68/USD) and interest rate stood at 18.75% (vs. 2024: 27.50%), yet the economy grew faster in 2024 than in 2023. How? You might ask. In our report, we delve into the key driv...
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