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Research Team
  • Research Team

Macro Insight: Growth Weak but Macroeconomic Stability Safeguarded

The economy is set to slow further as headwinds remain intense. The energy crisis caused by russia’s terror attacks on civil infrastructure is interrupting production cycles in many sectors and damaging consumer sentiment. If safety risks don’t subside dramatically in 2026 – which is our conservative baseline assumption – the economy will struggle to grow. Nonetheless, the continued inflows of foreign financial aid imply the economy will remain on a footing that is sufficiently strong and risks ...

15h / 10m 15h / 10m 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU starts easing cycle

The regulator lowered the key policy rate by 50 bps to 15.0%, initiating a cycle of monetary easing against a backdrop of declining inflation and secured external financing.

02/02/26 February 2, 2026 8 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- MoF pushes yields down

For the first time in almost 10 months, the Ministry of Finance made a move towards lower bond yields in anticipation of the NBU's cut in the key policy rate.

01/26/26 January 26, 2026 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Retail demand for UAH bonds robust

As of today, households’ total investments in domestic government bonds reached UAH117bn (US$2.7bn). Retail investors now account for 9% of the total stock of government bonds outstanding, excluding NBU’s portfolio.

01/19/26 January 19, 2026 4 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Inflation falls sharply in 2025

Annual CPI slowed to 8.0% in December vs. 9.3% in November and a peak of 15.9% in May.

01/12/26 January 12, 2026 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU hikes interventions

The National Bank of Ukraine hiked its FX interventions to nearly the maximum level this year and kept the hryvnia exchange rate broadly unchanged by the end of the week.

12/22/25 December 22, 2025 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU keeps key rate unchanged at 15.5%

The regulator will maintain this rate at least until the January 29 meeting, citing uncertainty over external financing for 2026-2027 as the primary reason for postponing monetary easing.

12/15/25 December 15, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Parliament approves 2026 state budget

The Ukrainian parliament approved the 2026 state budget last week. The deficit is planned at UAH1.9trn, an equivalent of US$46bn at the current exchange rate, or 19% of GDP.

12/08/25 December 8, 2025 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU widens hryvnia volatility range

In late autumn, the National Bank further widened the band of hryvnia fluctuations compared with September and October, and even briefly weakened the hryvnia below its January lows.

12/01/25 December 1, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Annual CPI on a steep downward trend

Annual CPI slowed to 10.9% in October from 11.9% in September and a peak of 15.9% in May. Core CPI was down to 10.2% from 11.0% in September.

11/18/25 November 18, 2025 4 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Parties exit VRI restructuring talks

At the end of last week, negotiations between the Ministry of Finance and the ad hoc committee of VRI holders ended without a deal. However, the parties signalled that there are good prospects of reaching an agreement in the future.

11/10/25 November 10, 2025 5 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Trade deficit hits new record high

The monthly current account (C/A) deficit stood at US$3.2bn on a record foreign trade-in-goods gap of US$5.0bn in September. Import of goods hit a record high at US$8.0bn in September (+34% YoY) on surging imports of machinery and equipment. Meanwhile, export was almost unchanged vs last September.

11/03/25 November 3, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU postpones rate cuts

The central bank maintained the key rate at 15.5%, indicating that monetary easing is unlikely before 2026, as inflation risks remain high. The regulator left the rate unchanged and it now expects two 50bp cuts, previously projected for this year, to be postponed.

10/27/25 October 27, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- MoF to scale up placement of reserve bonds

This week, the Ministry of Finance will hold a swap auction to exchange reserve bonds, the third one since the beginning of the year. Last week, the MoF borrowed UAH19.6bn via sale of military, regular, reserve, and USD-denominated bonds. Reserve securities accounted for more than a quarter of total funds raised.

10/20/25 October 20, 2025 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Macro Insight: Reparation Loan is a Likely Game Changer for Economy

The lingering war and heightened safety risks imply Ukraine will remain critically dependent on foreign financial aid for its defense efforts and macroeconomic stability. A new IMF program would be of little help if not funded properly. Fortunately, the EU started serious discussions about an EUR140bn reparation loan for Ukraine linked to russian frozen assets. The Ukrainian authorities believe the loan approval is highly likely and only the timeline is uncertain. Should the loan be stamped, Ukr...

10/15/25 October 15, 2025 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Monthly C/A gap narrows in August

The monthly current account (C/A) deficit narrowed to US$3.1bn from a record high of US$4.2bn in July. The trade-of-goods deficit saw an improvement on a decline in imports vs July, but still remained large at US$4.1bn taking the 8M25 result to US$30.4bn from US$20.2bn in 8M24.

10/06/25 October 6, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Optimism for Eurobonds strengthens

Continued discussions of the size and form of new financial support for Ukraine strengthened investor optimism and drove Eurobond prices.

09/29/25 September 29, 2025 6 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- Economic growth remains subdued in 2Q25

Ukraine’s GDP inched up 0.8% YoY in 2Q25, implying it was at just 79% of the pre-invasion (2Q21) level.

09/22/25 September 22, 2025 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU keeps the key rate at 15.5%

As expected, the regulator decided not to change the policy rate. The central bank explained that tight monetary conditions remain necessary to control inflation and safeguard the stability of the hryvnia.

09/15/25 September 15, 2025 7 EN
Research Team
  • Research Team

Weekly Insight -- NBU reserves get boost in August

The gross international reserves of the NBU surged 7.0% in August and 5.1% in 8m25 to US$46.0bn. Ukraine received a sizeable amount of foreign financial aid over the month, including $4.7bn via Ukraine Facility and ERA program and $1.1bn from the World Bank, which boosted NBU reserves.

09/08/25 September 8, 2025 6 EN
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