US Tariff Shock: Rotation Opportunities Amid US Trade Uncertainty Highlights Late Friday (US time), the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping global tariff regime, dealing a major blow to Trump’s signature trade policy and marking his most significant legal setback since returning to the White House. In a 6-3 ruling, the court held that President Trump overstepped his authority by invoking federal emergency-powers legislation to impose broad “reciprocal” tariffs and ...
MBR 2026: A Key Enabler Towards 2m BOEPD Goal Highlights MBR 2026 to explore new frontiers in unlocking the full potential of Malaysia’s basin. A positive surprise was that local production increased to about 1.9m boepd in 2025 despite 1H25 setbacks. While the long-term sustainable target remains at 2m boepd, the increased funnel of field development plans that are made possible through the collaboration of new PSCs, innovations and simplifications, are showing results. The ambitious scope of ...
Jan 26 TIV Moderates; Earnings Growth Intact for 4Q25 Highlights Sector earnings are expected to register a sequential growth of 3.5% to 7.5% qoq in 4Q25 driven by higher sales volumes. MAA’s TIV for Jan 26 declined mom to 64,298 units due to the normalisation of sales, but improved yoy on spillover demand from new model launches at end-25. We expect slower sales momentum throughout 1Q26 due to the festive season, in line with our forecast of TIV moderating to 790,000 units (-3.6% yoy) in ...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile Sector earnings are projected to register a sequential growth of 3.5% to 7.5% qoq in 4Q25, driven by higher sales volumes recorded by companies under our coverage. MAA’s TIV showed vehicles sales moderated mom in Jan 26 and are expected to remain soft throughout 1Q26 due to the festive season, in line with our forecast of declining TIV in 2026. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Sector Update | Oil & Gas MBR 2026 will explore new frontiers to meet Mal...
Greater China Sector Update | Metals And Mining Gold is holding near US$5,000/oz, supported by geopolitical risk, sustained central bank buying and policy uncertainty, reinforcing a higher structural floor. Despite tempered rate-cut expectations, gold equities still price in lower long-term bullion assumptions, implying valuation upside amid volatility. Copper’s pullback appears cyclical, with LME inventory builds driven by Chinese New Year seasonality and a temporary import arbitrage closure. W...
Top Stories Sector Update | Metals And Mining Gold is holding near US$5,000/oz, supported by geopolitical risk, sustained central bank buying and policy uncertainty, reinforcing a higher structural floor. Despite tempered rate-cut expectations, gold equities still price in lower long-term bullion assumptions, implying valuation upside amid volatility. Copper’s pullback appears cyclical, with LME inventory builds driven by Chinese New Year seasonality and a temporary import arbitrage closure. We ...
UHU clocked a positive rental reversion at high single digits in 2H25, an improvement from low single digits in 1H25. Walmart and M&T Bank extended their leases by 10 years and five years respectively. UHU will benefit from full-year contributions from the acquisitions of Dover Marketplace and Wallingford Fair in 2026. UHU trades at an attractive 2026 distribution yield of 8.8% (Kimco Realty: 4.5%, Regency Centers: 3.9%). Maintain BUY. Target price: US$0.72.
Gold is holding near US$5,000/oz, supported by geopolitical risk, sustained central bank buying and policy uncertainty, reinforcing a higher structural floor. Despite tempered rate-cut expectations, gold equities still price in lower long-term bullion assumptions, implying valuation upside amid volatility. Copper’s pullback appears cyclical, with LME inventory builds driven by Chinese New Year seasonality and a temporary import arbitrage closure. We maintain OVERWEIGHT, favouring low-cost upstre...
Company Update | Muangthai Capital (MTC TB/BUY/Bt37.75/Target: Bt52.00) We came away from MTC’s analyst meeting with a neutral view. Its CEO announced a double-digit loan growth target for 2026. The company will also continue to focus on smaller ticket sizes for secured loans, as these yield better debt collection and good asset quality. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Bt52.00. MTC is one of our top picks in the finance sector.
Company Update | Minor International (MINT TB/BUY/Bt26.75/Target: Bt38.00) MINT’s 4Q25 analyst meeting carried a positive tone, with management stating plans to launch an around US$1.0b REIT in 2H26, mainly for deleveraging. Despite one-time costs, there should be EPS growth in 2026. Management maintains guidance of high single-digit revenue and 15-20% profit growth, supported by a strong hotel performance across regions and a solid 1Q26 outlook. Net IBD/E stood at 0.86x, with deleveraging relia...
Company Results | Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB/HOLD/Bt61.75/Target: Bt60.00) TCAP reported a 4Q25 net profit of Bt1.89b (+42% yoy, -9% qoq). The results were in line with our and market expectations. We saw a significant qoq decrease in credit cost in 4Q25, and strong signs of recovery in the used truck business following an increase in the used truck price index for three consecutive months. We expect this recovery momentum to remain in 2026. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of Bt60.00 (...
Company Results | Dohome (DOHOME TB/HOLD/Bt4.20/Target: Bt3.80) Dohome’s 4Q25 earnings came in at Bt97m, down 40% yoy, below our and consensus forecasts due to a weaker-than-expected gross margin. The 1Q26 outlook is expected to be better than previously anticipated, as qtd SSSG has improved, led by the retail business, although wholesale SSSG remains soft. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt3.80.
Top Stories Company Results | Dohome (DOHOME TB/HOLD/Bt4.20/Target: Bt3.80) Dohome’s 4Q25 earnings came in at Bt97m, down 40% yoy, below our and consensus forecasts due to a weaker-than-expected gross margin. The 1Q26 outlook is expected to be better than previously anticipated, as qtd SSSG has improved, led by the retail business, although wholesale SSSG remains soft. Maintain HOLD with a target price of Bt3.80. Company Results | Thanachart Capital (TCAP TB/HOLD/Bt61.75/Target: Bt60.00) T...
Company Update | Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp6,550/Target: Rp7,800) In Jan 26, 4W wholesale sales grew 7.3% yoy, marking a rebound after two consecutive January declines in 2024 and 2025. The delay in the commencement of BYD’s Subang plant to 1H26 may divert demand, as CBU price hikes are likely following the expiry of incentives on 31 Dec 25 and delivery delays. Meanwhile, Toyota Veloz Hybrid continues to see strong demand, with 4,000 pre-bookings in Nov-Dec 25. Maintain BUY with a highe...
Economics | BI Holds Rates To Defend Rupiah As Domestic And Global Headwinds Intensify Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75% in Feb 26 to defend the rupiah. Pressures include dividend outflows, rising imports, and a risk premium spike following MSCI warnings and a Moody's outlook downgrade. Global headwinds ‒ a strong dollar and hawkish Fed expectations ‒ compound the fragility. Although undervalued, market sentiment on the currency remains weak. We now expect only one 25bp BI rate cut in 2H26, wit...
Top Stories Company Results | United Hampshire US REIT (UHU SP/BUY/US$0.56/Target: US$0.72) UHU clocked a positive rental reversion at high single digits in 2H25, an improvement from low single digits in 1H25. Walmart and M&T Bank extended their leases by 10 years and five years respectively. UHU will benefit from full-year contributions from the acquisitions of Dover Marketplace and Wallingford Fair in 2026. UHU trades at an attractive 2026 distribution yield of 8.8% (Kimco Realty: 4.5%, Rege...
Economics | BI Holds Rates To Defend Rupiah As Domestic And Global Headwinds Intensify Bank Indonesia held rates at 4.75% in Feb 26 to defend the rupiah. Pressures include dividend outflows, rising imports, and a risk premium spike following MSCI warnings and a Moody's outlook downgrade. Global headwinds ‒ a strong dollar and hawkish Fed expectations ‒ compound the fragility. Although undervalued, market sentiment on the currency remains weak. We now expect only one 25bp BI rate cut in 2H26, wit...
Company Update | Thai Oil (TOP/BUY/Bt52.75/Target: Bt58.00) The CFP project is progressing as planned, with full COD expected by 3Q28. The outlook remains strong, supported by firmer GRM and wider aromatics spreads, driven by solid demand and easing supply. We expect 1Q26 net profit to recover qoq, backed by higher accounting GIM and an additional gain from the bond buyback. Meanwhile, TOP has announced a 2H25 dividend of Bt1.00 per share. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt58.00.
Company Update | Tidlor Holdings Pcl (TIDLOR TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt23.00) We attended TIDLOR’s analyst meeting and came away with a slightly positive view. TIDLOR has clarified the increase in provisions, which is attributable to flooding-related impacts, and it is booked as a one-off provision of Bt200m. Truck loans started to pick up in 4Q25 and are expected to recover in 2026. Management has shared its 2026 financial targets. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of Bt23.00.
Company Results | Thai Union Group PCL (TU TB/HOLD/Bt12.70/Target: Bt13.20) TU’s 4Q25 core profit came in at Bt923m, down 24% yoy and 23% qoq. The results are below our and the market’s forecasts. The ambient business remains a key pressure. However, this could be offset by improvements in the pet food and seafood segments. We continue to monitor the recovery in the ambient business following the further increase of retail prices in the US market. Maintain HOLD, with a target price of Bt13.20
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