Sector Update | Finance We expect the finance sector's 1Q26 net profit to increase 12% yoy and 4% qoq. Credit costs are expected to decrease qoq in 1Q26 due to a high base in 4Q25. We found that when oil prices have jumped in the past, the finance sector's NPL ratio increased with some magnitude but not significantly. Finance companies indicated that they are maintaining good asset quality. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector. Our top picks are MTC and KTC.
Top Stories Sector Update | Finance We expect the finance sector's 1Q26 net profit to increase 12% yoy and 4% qoq. Credit costs are expected to decrease qoq in 1Q26 due to a high base in 4Q25. We found that when oil prices have jumped in the past, the finance sector's NPL ratio increased with some magnitude but not significantly. Finance companies indicated that they are maintaining good asset quality. Maintain OVERWEIGHT on the sector. Our top picks are MTC and KTC.
Bullish Biofuel Catalysts; Upgrade Sector To OVERWEIGHT Highlights We upgrade our sector call to OVERWEIGHT from MARKET WEIGHT, as we see 2026 CPO prices rising to RM4,500/tonne on the back of positive demand drivers from the US and Indonesia’s biofuel policy expansions. Despite some cost headwinds arising from higher fuel and fertiliser costs, these are expected to be more than offset by higher CPO prices, as spot prices climbed from RM4,000/tonne to RM4,700/tonne over the past month. Key...
Alpha Picks: Staying Selectively Defensive As Volatility Intensifies Highlights Our Mar 26 Alpha Picks marginally underperformed the FBMKLCI (-2.2% vs FBMKLCI: -1.5%). Bermaz Auto (+4.1%) and MISC (+4.6%) were the leaders but Gamuda was the main drag (-11.0%) followed by Yinson (-4.3%). On a quarterly basis, 1Q26 Alpha Picks’ returns outperformed on both priceand market cap-weighted bases, both outperforming by 2ppt each vs the FBMKLCI. For Apr 26, we adopt a barbell strategy – balancing r...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Staying Selectively Defensive As Volatility Intensifies Mar 26 Alpha Picks slightly underperformed the FBMKLCI, but 1Q26 performance outpaced by 2ppt on both price- and market cap-weighted bases. For Apr 26, we adopt a barbell approach – anchoring on domestically driven earnings for stability while selectively accumulating beaten-down stocks with catalyst-driven rebound potential. We also position in Brent oil beneficiaries and sector leaders with supportive t...
4Q25 adjusted net profit missed our estimate but met consensus at Rmb374m (+9.8% yoy/-10.2% qoq). We trim our 2025- 27 core net profit estimates by 8%/10% to Rmb1.78b/Rmb2.03b respectively. Joyson’s earnings growth will be driven by the ADAS and robotics business, together with the Rmb97b in order backlog at end-25. Maintain BUY but cut target price from Rmb45.00 to Rmb43.00.
Longyuan reported 2025 earnings of Rmb4,638m (-27.3% yoy), below expectations, due to lower realised power tariffs amid ongoing electricity market reforms and reduced utilisation hours from higher curtailment, despite a 1.2% yoy growth in total power generation to 76,469GWh. Management plans to add 4.5GW of new capacity in 2026. However, power tariffs are likely to trend lower as renewable generation increasingly participates in market-based electricity trading, although accelerated subsidy reco...
Macau’s Mar 26 GGR reached MOP22.6b, up 15% yoy and 10% mom, recovering to 88% of the 2019 level. The figure exceeded market consensus by 4%, supported by an easier base and a strong tailwind following the Chinese New Year holiday. In Feb 26, visitations to Macau increased 14% mom and 33% yoy to 4.2m, up 18% vs 2019 levels. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick.
China online retail companies’ 4Q25 revenue and margins were pressured by the high-base effect and the persistently intense on-demand delivery competition, which are likely to ease in 2026, seeing the solid NBS retail data for Jan-Feb 26, and the latest policy. Meanwhile, online gaming and OTA reported resilient 4Q25 top-line growth and continuous margin improvement, empowered by improved AI efficiency and benign competition. We expect improving AI monetisation and mixed earnings as AI investmen...
Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium and cutting losses on LINK REIT.
Sector Update | Retail Same-store sales in Mar 26 turned positive across the board, driven by panic stockpiling and a low base in Mar 25. Valuations are attractive, already pricing in the risk of potential product shortages in 2Q26, particularly in plastic packaging. Most stocks will pay dividends in Apr 26, which should help provide a buffer against uncertainties. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Upgrade GLOBAL to BUY. Top picks are CRC and GLOBAL.
Strategy | Alpha Picks: Reload On Domestically-Oriented Sectors After Middle East Tensions Ease Our portfolio returns outperformed the market in Mar 26 (our portfolio: +2.5% vs SET Index: -5.2%). For Apr 26, we have a positive outlook on the SET Index, supported by banking stocks that are expected to remain at elevated levels ahead of dividend payments in late-April, alongside a recovery in domestically-oriented sectors following the easing of the Middle East tensions. Apr 26 Alpha Picks: AOT, B...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Reload On Domestically-Oriented Sectors After Middle East Tensions Ease Our portfolio returns outperformed the market in Mar 26 (our portfolio: +2.5% vs SET Index: -5.2%). For Apr 26, we have a positive outlook on the SET Index, supported by banking stocks that are expected to remain at elevated levels ahead of dividend payments in late-April, alongside a recovery in domestically-oriented sectors following the easing of the Middle East tensions. Apr 26 Alpha ...
Largely Resilient Outlook But Not Cheap Enough Highlights Impact from the Middle East conflict appears digestible for now while MySara cash aid sees a more moderated and broadened impact across retailers. Valuations resilient but uncertainties cap upside. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks for the sector: Fraser & Neave Holdings, Heineken Malaysia and Oriental Kopi Holdings.
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Trump Tweets, Portfolio Bleeds Our Alpha Picks portfolio declined 8.6% mom in Mar 26, lagging the STI amid a risk-off environment and heightened policy uncertainty. Weakness was led by property and cyclical names, while OCBC and China Aviation Oil provided limited support. We add NTTDCR and First Resources and take profit on ASL and CSE, while remaining focused on high-conviction picks with clear catalysts. Market Spotlight • US stocks were higher on Wed...
Top Stories Sector Update | Consumer The impact from the Middle East conflict appears digestible for now while MySara cash aid sees a more moderated and broadened impact across retailers. Valuations remain resilient despite geopolitical shocks, but structural derating and external risks limit upside, supporting a cautious MARKET WEIGHT stance overall. Oriental Kopi Holdings is added to our top picks for the sector, complementing Fraser & Neave Holdings and Heineken Malaysia. Market Spotlight T...
Company Results | Erajaya Swasembada (ERAA IJ/BUY/Rp374/Target: Rp600) ERAA delivered strong 2025 results above our and consensus estimates, with 17% yoy revenue growth and 16% yoy net profit growth driven by iPhone 16/17 launches and robust 4Q25 performance. Momentum has carried into 2026 with January SSSG up 39.2%, supported by premium demand and seasonality, although we expect growth to normalise from 2Q26 amid a higher base effect. Maintain BUY; target price: Rp600. Highlights • Flagship la...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium an...
Economics | March Inflation Cools As Base Effects Fade And Gold Prices Moderate Headline inflation eased to 3.48% yoy in Mar 26, below expectations, as administered prices normalised and food prices moderated. Core inflation cooled to 2.52% despite Ramadan demand. Markets reacted positively, with bond yields falling. Inflation is expected to moderate in the coming months as base effects fade, with rising oil prices posing upside risks. BI is now expected to hold rates at 4.75% through 2026, revi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in March amid outbreak of hostilities in the Middle East, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 6.9% mom and 7.5% mom respectively. We expect markets to stay volatile in April, though oversold rebounds are possible. We continue to focus on names with stronger fundamentals and remain buyers of tech names, adding Li Ning and Zijin Mining to our BUY list while taking profits on Ganfeng Lithium a...
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