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ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Gross margin headwinds persist

Gross margin est. down on continually elevated freight rates. '24e-'26e EBITA down 4-2%. '24e-'25e lease adj. FCFE yield excl. earn-outs of 8-10%.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Alice Beer
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Linear growth in a tough environment

'24e sales up 2%. New ARR shows sequential growth stability. '24e-'25e EV/EBITDA ~11-9x.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Recovery still awaits

We lower '24e-'26e adj. EBITA by 35-1%. Potential for utilisation improvement in H2'24. '24e-'25e EV/EBITA of 12-6x.

ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

More efficiency on the horizon

We raise '25e-'26e adj. EBIT by 1%. Continued gross margin recovery expected. Trading at '24e EV/adj. EBITA of ~10x.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Alice Beer
  • Oscar Rönnkvist

Small streams make great rivers

Q1: growth recovery and margin improvements with solid FCF. We tweak our '24e sales and adj. EBITA estimates. Share is trading at 8.6x '24e EV/EBITA adj.

ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Adrian Gilani

No drama despite Q1 miss

A miss, but keep in mind Q1 is ~5% of FY EBIT. We cut '24e-'26e adj. EBIT by 3-1%, some risk of more price pressure. Share trading at 13-10x '24e-'25e EV/EBIT.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Gradual improvements from Q4 low

Orders recover from Q4 low, NWC release supports fantastic FCF. Some one-offs weigh on profitability, expect margins to improve. Management seems upbeat on M&A market, acquisitions in '24 likely.

ABGSC Services Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Services Research
  • Julia Sundvall
  • Simon Jönsson
  • Stefan Knutsson

On track to deliver profitability gains

We raise adj. EBITA by 2-1-0% on '24e-'26e. Adj. EBITA expected to grow 12% y-o-y in H2'24e. 10-8x EBITA on '24e-'26e (8-12% FCFy), ~10% below peers.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Alice Beer
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Textbook volume growth

'24e-'26e sales up 2-1%. Volume growth to continue into the year. FVR of SEK 20-35 reiterated.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Nikola Kalanoski

New year, new group structure

We cut '24e-'26e sales by 7-10%. Sominis divestment weighs on est. revisions. '24e-'25e EV/EBIT 40x-10x.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Adrian Gilani
  • Henric Hintze

Marks three years of y-o-y growth

Strong y-o-y growth: EEs +18%, SCs +36%, sales +22%. EBIT margin 23% (25%), ~33% adjusted for FX effects. End-of-life programme in H2 will be partly offset by others ramping.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

Tougher comps, but good momentum

Tough comps, we expect -3% org sales growth (119% Q1'23). The Intercom order behind 2024e estimate changes, EBIT +51%. Share trading at 26x EV/EBIT 2024e, 31x 2025e.

ABGSC Media Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Media Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen

Huge investment gain in Q1e

Q1e: sales +41% y-o-y, ~10% EBIT margin (SDR now consolidated). Raising '24e EPS by 22% on huge unrealised Q1e investment gain. Paper prices still high, but Salling deal lifts '25e-'26e EBIT by 1-3%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Fredrik Ivarsson

Keeps proving its M&A affinity

Geographical diversity gives resilience - UK grew 6% org. Thebalux delivered a strong 25% margin; first full quarter in the group. Share trading at 7x '24e EBITA vs historical avg. 7-11x NTM.

ABGSC Healthcare Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Healthcare Research
  • Morten Larsen

Underlying Q1 growth intriguingly good

Solid 7% organic growth in Q1, underlying was even better. Another $3m in restructuring costs reveals margin pressure. Maintain FV 25-37 after smaller EPS changes.

ABGSC Food & Beverage Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Food & Beverage Research
  • Sten Gustafsson

Slow start, but turnaround continues

Drop in sales due to tough comps. Gross margin negatively impacted by mix effects. EBITDA revised down 8-9% for '24e-'26e.

ABGSC IT Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC IT Research
  • Mikkel Kousgaard Rasmussen

Focus on profitability intensifies

Q1e: We expect 25% ARR growth and adj. EBITDA of DKK -1.9m. Likely to reiterate FY'24 guidance with no material change in demand. FTE reduction lifts '24e-'26e adj. EBITDA by 19-5%.

ABGSC Capital Goods Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Capital Goods Research
  • Henric Hintze

Expect stable demand and improving margins

Q1e: orders -2%, sales +1% y-o-y, adj. EBITA margin 7.0% (6.2%). Expect stable demand and improving margins in '24e. Hope to see M&A drive growth as organic sales normalise.

ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Telecom Equipment Research
  • Daniel Thorsson
  • Simon Granath

SSC order offsets soft US sales

Q1 sales hurt by lower US sales, but other regions contributed well. Fine-tuned sales estimates, but we lift our GM assumptions. Ovzon-3 sales to gradually ramp-up in H2e, 10% FCF yield in '25e.

ABGSC Services Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Services Research
  • Karl Bokvist

The German expansion continues

Q1 report Thu 25 Apr, '24e-'26e EBITA up 4-5%; 6% CAGR '23-'26e, 11-9x EBITA '24e-'26e, 9-10% FCF yields

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