reports
- Luuk Van Beek
- Frank Claassen
AMG - No recovery in lithium or vanadium prices yet
• Q1-24 was a touch above our expectations on EBITDA, but below on FCF.• AMG reiterates FY24 guidance of EBITDA of around USD 130m as lithium and vanadium prices remain subdued for the moment. • We stick to Hold, but increase our TP to EUR 23 (was EUR 18) based on our 2025e SOTP on the back of a rerating of peer group multiples.
- Frank Claassen
Bekaert - Soft start on revenues, still on track for full year
• Q1-24 revenues missed our estimates and consensus, primarily due to an underestimated effect from passing on lower raw materials prices. • Nevertheless, Bekaert reiterates its FY24 guidance of modest sales growth and at least stable margins. We will not materially change our estimates.• We stick to our positive stance as outlined in our recent in-depth report 'More proof points of successful transformation'. We reiterate our Buy and TP of EUR 6...
- Fernand de Boer
AB InBev - A good start to the year
• Q1 24 results exceeding expectations, with a good performance in most regions with stable to higher market shares• EBITDA increased by 5.4% organically, providing confidence that FY growth will land at the higher end of the 4-8% range, or even above. Hence, we expect consensus EBITDA estimate to rise by 1-2% based on these numbers• We reiterate our Buy recommendation and 12m TP of EUR 68
- Fernand de Boer
Ahold Delhaize - Q1 marginally beating
• Sales and underlying income marginally exceeded our estimates. On FCF it had a strong start. Ahold Delhaize maintained its guidance• Based on the Q1 results, we expect to raise our estimates by some 2-3%• We maintain our Hold rating but on the back of the higher estimates we raise our TP from EUR 31 to EUR 32
- Luuk Van Beek
- Inna Maslova
Montea - Q1 fully in line, 2025 guidance lifted
LfL rents were up 4.3%, driven by indexation (3.4%) and portfolio relettings and renewals (0.9%). Occupancy remains at 100%.Portfolio has seen a EUR 99m value increase, EUR 12m of which is linked to increased valuations. EPRA NIY remained stable at 5.1%.EPRA LTV stood at 34.8%, up 150bps vs December end.Growth ambitions remain on track with EUR 260m investment volume target reiterated.The company lifts its 2025 EPRA EPS guidance to EUR 4.75 from EUR 4.65 as a result of earlier than expected comp...
- Frank Claassen
Solvay - Resilience and return of volume growth
• Q1-24 EBITDA was more than 10% above our and consensus estimates, supported by the return of positive volume growth. • This confirms our view that Solvay is resilient, also due to its strong cost and capex discipline.• Valuation multiples remain very attractive for a 20% ROCE business. We stick our Buy and TP of EUR 36, based on our 2025E SOTP.
- Frank Claassen
Kendrion - Cost savings at Industrial brakes pay off
• Industrial brakes is still declining, but Q1 was somewhat ahead on EBITDA due to implemented cost saving measures. • Kendrion recently announced to sell its Automotive business. Although strategically the focus on Industrial makes sense, the price received for Automotive was underwhelming in our view. • We stick to Hold with a TP of EUR 14, which implies a target EV/EBITDA of 7-7.5 for the remaining Industrial part.
- Aurore Aventin (IDMidCaps)
- Laura Roba
Agfa-Gevaert - 2024 also to be H2-weighted - Q1 preview
In 2023, 42% of the EBITDA was delivered in Q4, reflecting the seasonality of the business. Management emphasized that growth in ‘24 will again be back-end loaded. Hence, we expect Q1 to be broadly in line with last year.Growth engines are expected to continue their progression in '24 with significant top-line and profitability growth in DPC. Profitability will continue to improve in Healthcare IT although we should not see a huge step up yet. Radiology, however, is not expected to recover ...
- Frank Claassen
PostNL - An unconvincing start
• The Q1-24 missed on EBIT due to a steeper decline at Mail and unfavorable mix at Parcels.• Nevertheless, PostNL sticks to its FY24 guidance range, which has now become even more dependent on Q4. We will lower our estimates towards the lower-end of this guidance range.• We stick to Hold and lower our TP to EUR 1.25 (was EUR 1.35 p/s), based on our 2025E SOTP.
- Vincent Koppmair
NSI - Big changes in shareholder structure
First Sponsor Group acquires EUR 42.9m of NSI shares at EUR 20.00 per share (11% above last close & 43% below latest NTA).With these 2,145,960 shares First Sponsor Group will be a 13.52% shareholder, the biggest in NSI.The seller is previous biggest shareholder ICAMAP.We reiterated our ‘Hold' rating and EUR 22.00 TP.More details in our Note published this Morning
- Michael Roeg
- Laura Roba
Carmat - Update on EFICAS and FY24 guidance reiterated
20 patients implanted so far in the EFICAS study – 9 in FY24. Carmat is on track to reach its target of 30 implants in '24. Interim results from 6 patients show 75% success rate, beating management expectations and past studies results.Based on progress made so far and the 39 hospitals trained for commercial implants, management reiterates FY24 sales guidance of c. EUR 14m. Cash runway until end of May (vs. mid-May previously). Carmat indicates that some reference shareholders already confi...
- Vincent Koppmair
Shurgard - Q1 2024 - A start to 2024
All store revenue up 7.1% YoY at EUR 93.4m driven by higher rent prices (4.2%), and larger portfolio (+4.9%), offset by lower occupancy (86.7%)Same store revenue up 4.0% (CER), average occupancy is down 60bps at 89.2% YoY, and in place rent up 3.3%.EPRA results up 12.6% YoY, EPRA EPS at EUR 0.35 (+3.1%) post ABB.Leverage remains very low at 14.6% (vs. 13% at December end) and net debt/EBITDA at 3.5x and ICR stands at 13.4x.We reiterate our ‘Buy' rating and EUR 47.00 TP.More details in our N...
- Frank Claassen
Aperam - Have we now seen the trough quarter?
• Q1 EBITDA was in line, while the outlook of a higher Q2 is encouraging. • Nevertheless, improvement is already anticipated and we do not expect to materially change our estimates. • We stick to our Hold rating with a TP of EUR 30, based on our 2025E SOTP with an overall target EV/EBITDA of around 5x.
- Frank Claassen
bpost - Waiting for impact of press negotiations
• The Q1-24 REBIT was somewhat below expectations, mainly on higher corporate costs. No concrete FY24 guidance as not all negotiations on press distribution are finalized yet and impact is still unclear.• The planned acquisition of Staci can strategically be justified, but in our view it looks stretched financially, both on multiple paid and on resulting leverage. • Although multiples appear undemanding, we stick to Hold. There are still many uncertainties.
- Inna Maslova
Klepierre - Q1 trading update
NRI was up 4.8% to EUR 253.4m, with indexation representing 2.8% and the remainder being driven by reversion and higher additional revenues.Q1 retailer sales were up 4.3% YoY, with Health & Beauty (+12.2%), Food & Beverage (+5.8%) and Fashion (+4.5%) showing the strongest performance. Household equipment was the only segment posting negative growth (-2.0%). 2024 net current cash flow (NCCF) per share guidance confirmed at EUR 2.45-2.50 (-1.2% to +0.8% YoY), EBITDA to grow 4% YoY.The update is in...
- David Seynnaeve
- PhD
Galapagos - Q1 24 results
GLPG published its Q1 results, reporting Group net revenues of EUR 100m, in line with CSS. Net profit was significantly up (but below CSS), notably boosted by preliminary calculation of the gain on the sale of Jyseleca.FY24 reduced cash burn guidance reiterated. Nothing new on the CAR-T front. Yet, it is good to see that the company still plans to submit IND applications for its CAR-Ts still in 2024. Remember that GLPG has been running CAR-T trials in Europe only so far.Overall, no material surp...
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