reports
Tesla's Won't Fix It's Worst Problems With Elon Musk In Charge
• Plunging sales & growing losses, severe price cuts & layoffs, failed FSD, M2 dropped for Robotaxi, and more, confirm that Elon Musk won't fix Tesla's most serious problems—which he created. • Yet he still demands his "unfathomable" pay package be restored, and his feckless, captured Tesla Board is doing exactly what he wants. • What Tesla’s Board should do, what it should have done years ago, is fire Elon Musk, the single greatest risk to Tesla’s future.
Tesla Q1 Deliveries: Look Out Below
• Q1 Deliveries trailed plunging market consensus, my even lower number, and Tesla's expectations as sales crashed while it overproduced to a new record cumulative excess inventory which jumped 70% y/y. • This doesn't square with Tesla's explanation that sales were hurt by ongoing production issues—much like when the company used the same excuse for the disappointing Q3 2023. • This time deliveries were much lower, the miss versus market expectations much worse, and the deep well of unsold inven...
Tesla Q1 Trends: Rockslide
• You know it's bad when Tesla's delivery trends blow through even my lowest estimates, which already had trailed market projections. • With no help from the hapless CyberTruck which, not surprisingly, continues to shoot Tesla in the foot. • See my latest Q1 and full-year estimates—which still prove to be too high.
Elon Musk Can't Be Trusted. He Also Can't Be Stopped, Apparently.
• Tesla Q1 must be tracking even worse than I expected based on the uptick in Elon Musk's erratic behavior—his tell when bad news spirals out of control. • Wacko conspiracies, Putin propaganda, National security threat! At least he has his self-flattering alter ego Adrian Dittmann to boost his spirits. • Musk's companies continue to rack up safety violations, government investigations, and lawsuits, while he loses his massive pay package and tries to dodge the SEC investigation into his Twitter ...
Tesla: Moving The Goalposts Works Until It Doesn't
• As I warned, troubled Q4 results were worse than investors expected, even with further drops in already plunging market expectations following disappointing deliveries dubiously called a "beat." • Even numbers as reported were weaker than reported when I stripped out subsidies and accounting boosts which mask underlying trouble—as is typical with Tesla (see attached model). • Tesla continues to foster the false impression that it's healthier, more profitable, and more successful than it is, wh...
Elon Musk's "Global Sewer" May Derail Bankers' Trying To Finally Dump ...
• I warned Elon Musk wouldn't help his beleaguered banks via refi of billions in losing LBO debt they foolishly fronted him to buy Twitter. • He can't even stop setting it and himself on fire every day. • Now he admits Twitter is being killed by the advertiser boycott he again caused—but takes no responsibility for his incendiary actions. • Meanwhile, Elon destroying Twitter may be paving the way for the banks to take over control—and ejecting Elon.
What Really Happened to Tesla's Latest Ex-CFO?
• Factory shutdowns for "updates" don't explain Tesla's huge Q3 miss on deliveries. • Why? Because bloated excess inventory was enough to cover the 20k "miss" some 3-5x. • A better explanation: Tesla's accelerating demand erosion, which I have been tracking since last year in every major market.
Tesla's Problem Is Fading Demand, Not Disruptive Factory "Updates"
• Factory shutdowns for "updates" don't explain Tesla's huge Q3 miss on deliveries. • Why? Because bloated excess inventory was enough to cover the 20k "miss" some 3-5x. • A better explanation: Tesla's accelerating demand erosion, which I have been tracking since last year in every major market.
Tesla Q3 Deliveries Are Looking Ugly
• Market consensus estimates for Q3 deliveries have been falling so hard and fast they now approach my formerly well below market estimate. • Sentiment, however, remains largely optimistic as analysts attribute the weakness to factory shutdowns for "updates". We'll see. • Tesla is expected to report results before the market opens on Monday.
Elon Musk's Latest X-ceptionally Bad Idea
• Elon Musk has killed Twitter's last and greatest value by renaming it X. As in, fill in whatever the heck it is now. • Twitter's strong, globally recognized brand worth had been worth much as $20 billion—its last and only valuable asset. • Incredibly, it gets worse. Hundreds of other companies already own rights to the X name and logo—including META and Microsoft.
Tesla Q2: Solid Beat, At Any Cost
Q2 deliveries were solidly higher versus expectations, thanks to Tesla's 11th hour fire sales on top of fire sales to move sluggish inventory. The trouble is, this likely slashed already shrinking profitability while excess inventory continued to grow. Margins & profits probably can't recover as more aggressive measures already are needed in Q3 just to sustain sales.
Tesla’s Panicky Q2: Everything Must Go!
Tesla continues to scramble to dump inventory as the final hours slip away for its troubled second quarter, as in several additional rounds of severe price cuts in every major market plus increased expensive incentives like free charging, cheap lease terms, and insurance subsidies. Sounds desperate? Sure. But Tesla has little choice, as I long have warned, since it really has only one strongly competitive model left, Model Y, out of its paltry, aging fleet of four.
Elon Musk Doesn’t Want You To Get Too Attached To Twitter’s New CEO
• New Twitter CEO is only days into her new job and there already are warning signs she and Musk are bound to clash. • Musk demonstrates he's not interested in anyone else actually running Twitter or making it safe for key advertisers or even breakeven. • Bad news for all of Twitter's stakeholders, including its wary bankers still unable to offload to investors a refi of its crushing debt.
Tesla's Still Bloated Inventory Signals June Sales May Disappoint, Alo...
• Tesla traditionally sells 50-60% of total quarterly sales in the last month—until now. • Stubbornly high inventory levels signal that trend is at risk—along with ambitious market estimates for Q2 • June deliveries may track lower versus April+May and be down y/y. If so, Q2 deliveries may be little changed or even lower versus Q1 results.
Tesla Q1 Deliveries "Beat" Rapidly Falling Market Estimates But Miss M...
Tesla managed a late hour surge needed to "beat" rapidly falling market estimates, but results were still shy of management's target for > 37% y/y growth and drastic measures likely hurt already waning revenue quality & shrinking profit margins.
Twitter Equity Worth $20 Billion? Guess Again
Elon Musk recently told employees Twitter equity is now worth $20 billion, far less than he paid. Good luck with even that. I suspect Twitter’s enterprise value at little more than more than $13 billion in debt—implying equity is wiped out. So what's he up to?
Hello, Comeuppance: NHTSA recalls all Teslas with Auto pilot FSDBeta
• NHTSA has recalled all Teslas with FSDBeta, more than 362,000 cars. • This comes just before Tesla releases substantial upgrades to Autopilot including the return of radar. • Which means NO legacy Teslas really are FSD hardware ready, despite what CEO Elon Musk has claimed for years when selling the option for thousands of dollars
Tesla's Demand Problems Aren't Going Away
The market says Tesla's 20-30% price cuts will reverse stalling demand, even though several rounds of expensive cuts & incentives in Q4 didn't. I'm not convinced, as shown in my 2023 model & forecast. Tesla apparently isn't either, as indicated by sharply lower guidance and apparently plans to ramp up debt to bolster cash.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.