Trinity Delta Lighthouse: HUTCHMED
Trinity Delta view: The China sales decline, plus lowering of revenue guidance are undoubtedly disappointing. However, China growth is already improving and management is confident this will continue during H225, driven by new indications. In particular, the recent Orpathys/Tagrisso approval based on SACHI data represent a much larger indication; importantly, data from the global SAFFRON trial are expected H126. Furthermore, as the sizeable ATTC opportunities become clearer, these could offer significant upside potential; additional information is expected at the EORTC conference in October and clinical trials for the first ATTC candidate should start by end-2025. Data from surufatinib in pancreatic cancer, expected late-2025, remain a wild-card to which we assign limited value. Our most recent HUTCHMED valuation is $5.86bn/ £4.69bn/HK$45.74bn, or $33.64/ADS and 538p/HK$52.48 per share.
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