reports
- Jamie Fallon
Poland's shock rate cut prompts FX losses and bias accusations ahead o...
The Polish zloty continued to see some of the largest daily currency losses yesterday, down -0.6% against the dollar after the central bank (NBP) implemented a surprise 75bps rate cut on 6 September. With inflation still at 10.1% yoy in the latest July data and October's parliamentary and senate elections just weeks away, the move has prompted accusations of a politically motivated expansionary bias that aims to boost the electoral prospects of the ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS), undermi...
- Marina William
EDITA: 2Q23| Margins maintained steadily by rise in prices and cost cu...
Rise in prices supports top-line annually and sequentially while volumes falter on a sequential front; Biscuits segment achieves a record-breaking top-line for the quarter EFID achieved another quarter of sequential revenues growth, recording EGP2,858 mn (+81.7% YoY, +2.8% QoQ) close to our estimates of EGP2,915 mn. The rise was backed annually and sequentially by the rise in ASP to reach EGP3.00/pack (+41.2% YoY, +10.8% QoQ). Volumes waned on a sequential basis to record EGP959 mn packs (+28...
- Hasnain Malik
- Stuart Culverhouse
Argentina: Shock victory for Milei in primaries will add to election u...
Provisional results from Argentina’s primary elections (PASO) held yesterday show a shock victory for Javier Milei, the radical far-right outsider and anti-establishment candidate of the Libertarian party (LLA), with 30.4% of the vote. In another case of opinion polls getting it wrong, with most recent polls putting him in third place, his share was some 10ppts higher than he was generally expected to get, and reversed the decline in his ratings that had been observed in recent months. But de...
- Hasnain Malik
Indonesia 2024 election more about competing personalities than polici...
Indonesia is the world's third largest democracy and its general election, for the presidency and parliament, is scheduled for 14 February 2024. Incumbent President Joko Widodo has reached his two-term limit. A second-round run-off between Prabowo Subianto and Ganjar Pranowo is likely. However, there is unlikely to be any major shift in economic policy, a mix of pro market-friendly and populism, foreign policy, with the balance between US security and Chinese economic relations common to most...
- Mayar El Ashry
Talaat Moustafa Group Holding: 2Q23 | Stellar Quarter; we raise our FV...
Sales surpass our FY 23 forecast; hotel revenue almost doubles * TMGH achieved stellar 2Q23 results, with 2Q23 sales rising 248.7% y/y and 69.5% q/q to EGP20.7 billion, bringing 1H23 sales up 191.0% y/y to EGP32.9 billion. Other than the EGP32.9 billion, sales made for non-TMGH entities in 1H23 recorded EGP18.5 billion, for which TMGH receives commissions. * Revenue in 2Q23 grew 54.1% y/y and 41.3% q/q to EGP6.3 billion, bringing 1H23 revenue up 50.9% y/y to EGP10.7 billion, supported b...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
- Sarah Albassam
SNB Capital Research Morning Agenda | 14 August 2023
* BinDawood reported a better than expected set of Q2 23 results, with net profit increasing by 55.5% yoy (+26.1% qoq) of SAR65.8mn. This compares to the SNB Capital and consensus estimates of SAR61.5mn and SAR61.3mn, respectively. Revenue increased by 15.6% yoy (+2.2% qoq) to SAR1.41bn and came in-line with our estimates. We believe the variance in earnings was mainly driven by higher than expected gross margins which stood at 32.0% vs 31.0% in Q2 22 and our estimate of 30.5%. The margin ex...
- Humayra Afroz
Morning Newsflash Monday, August 14, 2023
* BB has increased the interest rates on loans taken from both the BDT 50.0bn (USD 0.5bn) Pre-shipment refinance scheme and the Export Facilitation Pre-finance Fund. /economy/banking/bb-raises-lending-rates-two-export-support-schemes-681926 * VAT collection from retail and wholesale businesses grew by 35.5% in the commercial areas of the capital, largely for the installation of Electronic Fiscal Devices (EFDs) and intensified enforcement.
- Humayra Afroz
Morning Newsflash Sunday, August 13, 2023
* Net exports surged to an all-time high of 71.5%, reaching USD 8.4bn in that quarter, meaning that apparel makers added more local value to their export products. As a result, the country's trade deficit narrowed by 48% in FY23 compared to a year ago. /economy/rmg/net-rmg-export-ratio-all-time-high-715-680734 * Deposits in the country’s commercial banks increased significantly in June due mainly to the government’s substantial borrowing from the central bank t...
- Jamie Fallon
Uzbekistan: Currency drops as weakness in China, Russia drags on expor...
Uzbekistan's soum topped global currency losses today, plunging -3.3% against the dollar to a new all-time low of U12'067/US$ on Bloomberg. This is the largest 1-day depreciation in the currency since April 2020. The soum has been steadily depreciating since the country lifted currency controls in 2019, but has occasionally seen more sudden moves. The Uzbek soum plunged 3.4% today - the largest 1-day depreciation since April 2020 [/article-assets/body-u7FMAta2zoKwuk6sB...
- Hasnain Malik
Barbie's billion and LGBT questions for ESG in emerging markets
Warner Bros' box office receipts topped a billion dollars in the third week after its release and its director Greta Gerwig is the first solo female director on a movie to hit this mark, surpassing Patty Jenkins' 2017 Wonder Woman's final total of US$822mn. The plot of the movie sees the toy doll crossover from the fantasy world to the real world. As a feminist tale some see it as inspiring to women, others see it as depressing for women, and a few see it as spiteful to men. In some countries...
- IMS Research Team
Lotte Chemical Pakistan: 2QCY23 Review - Lower volumes lead to sharp u...
LOTCHEM has posted NPAT of PKR0.3bn (EPS: PKR0.21) in 2QCY23, down 89% YoY and 88% QoQ. The result came much below our expected NPAT of PKR1.7bn (EPS: PKR1.18) due to lower sales volume amid plant shutdown during 2QCY23 and higher one –off effective tax due to super tax. This takes 1HCY23 NPAT to PKR2.8bn (EPS: PKR1.88), down 47% YoY. The company did not declare any dividends against our expected payout of PKR1/sh. KEY HIGHLIGHTS FOR 2QCY23 RESULT: * Revenue clocked in at PKR16.4bn, down 45%...
- Hasnain Malik
- Stuart Culverhouse
Argentina: Investment implications of Sunday's primary elections
Ahead of Sunday’s vote, we asses the impact of the primaries (PASO) on Argentina's bonds and equities. The primaries will serve as a national opinion poll ahead of the presidential election on 22 October. Polls now suggest a tighter race with less of a clear-cut lead for the opposition compared to several months ago. FIXED INCOME The immediate impact on the bonds of the primaries will no doubt depend on what it signals for the chances of more orthodox and market-friendly policies under the ne...
- IMS Research Team
IMS Daily Brief - 11-08-2023
FROM THE SALES DESK The market appears to be in correction mode after its strong FYTD run up, with solid incoming results failing to provide much support. There is uncertainty over the length of the caretaker setup and concerns that interest rates may not have peaked just yet. We think some profit taking is understandable in the near-term. We remain positive across FY24 however. NEWS & VIEWS JUL REMITTANCES DOWN 19.3% TO U$2.027BN YOY (NEGATIVE) According to the SBP, inflow of home remittance...
- Jamie Fallon
Nigerian naira drops in parallel exchanges on calls for Binance ban
The Nigerian naira dropped in parallel exchange markets today, depreciating 4.8% to N932.5/US$. This widens the parallel premium versus official rates to c20%, the highest since Tinubu's exchange rate unification efforts began in June. The Naira extended losses in parallel exchange rates today, reaching new all time lows [/article-assets/body-l1HLTjP86vIFilLnU6cbaSACHas1kuRjTdNAtN7J.png] The development vindicates our concerns in late July that reforms were losing mom...
- Yusra Beg
Meezan Bank: 2QCY23 Review - Revenues growing in the interest rate sli...
MEBL has posted 2QCY23 consolidated NPAT of PKR17.3bn (EPS: PKR9.66), up a sharp 120% YoY, and 12% QoQ. This takes 1HCY23 NPAT to PKR32.7bn (EPS: PKR18.30), up 92% YoY. The result higher than our estimated EPS of PKR8.50 with strong beats on net spread income and fee more than offsetting a large jump in admin expenses. Results were accompanied by an interim cash dividend of PKR4.0/sh, - higher than our estimated PKR3.0/sh. 2QCY23 KEY RESULT HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE: * MEBL reported 2QCY23 net spre...
- Stuart Culverhouse
Ecuador: Assassination of Presidential candidate – Initial thoughts
Presidential candidate and anti-corruption campaigner Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated while leaving a campaign rally in Quito yesterday, less than two weeks before the election on 20 August. Villavicencio, one of eight candidates in the election, was placed second in an opinion poll ironically published by Cedatos just hours before his murder (although he has been placed lower in other polls). According to reports, a suspect was shot at the scene in an exchange of fire with security a...
- Hasnain Malik
US limits on investment in China Tech not as severe as feared
The Biden administration in the US continues to expand the curbs on China's advanced technology sector under the pretext of national security. The executive order on 9 August limits US investment in the Chinese tech sector. This is another episode in ever broadening friction between the US and China, which started under the Trump administration and remains one of the only areas on which there is bipartisan consensus in the US Congress. However, the latest curbs on investment are much less sev...
- Iyad KhalidÊGhulam
- Sarah Albassam
SNB Capital Research Morning Agenda | 10 August 2023
* According to the Ministry of Justice, real estate transactions declined by 16% yoy to SAR184.4bn from August 2022 to July 2023 (1444 Hijri). This is the first decline in the last 4 periods. * The total number of transactions during the period stood at 175,900. * Out of the total transactions, Land plots accounted for 85.4%, followed by Apartments At 10.2% * Land space transacted fell by 57%yoy to 1,255 mn sqm * Riyadh witnessed the highest number of transactions with a ...
- IMS Research Team
Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd: 2QCY23 Review - Elevated finance cost a...
EPCL has posted consolidated NPAT of PKR1.5bn for 2QCY23 (EPS: 1.39), down 33% YoY but up 32% QoQ. The result came slightly lower than our 2QCY23 expected EPS of 1.52, where the major deviation stemmed from higher than expected finance cost and one-off high effective tax due to super tax. This takes 1HCY23 total consolidated NPAT to PKR2.7bn (EPS: 2.69), down 61% YoY. The company has announced an interim cash dividend of PKR1.50/sh taking 1HCY23 total payout to PKR2.50/sh. We expected a payou...
- IMS Research Team
IMS Daily Brief - 10-08-2023
FROM THE SALES DESK Renewed hopes of circular debt resolution and optimism over power sector payouts drove up the KSE100 yesterday. The next checkpoint is the composition of the caretaker government. We are cautious in the short-term, given the sharp FYTD rally, but reiterate Pakistan is a strong macro trade across FY24. Add on dips. NEWS & VIEWS IMF ‘AMENABLE TO IDEA OF PROLONGED CARETAKER SETUP’ (NEUTRAL) The IMF has shown its willingness to work with a prolonged caretaker setup for the com...
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