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Hai Thanh Le Phuong

GDP - 2019 Q3 GDP Growth Continues At Elevated Pace

Economic growth in Q3 rose to 5.0% y-o-y, up from 4.9% in Q2, preliminary figures by the KSH showed today. This growth rate exceeds the Bloomberg consensus of 4.6%. Detailed figures are expected on 29 November. Working-day adjusted y-o-y figure was 4.8%, already reflecting some slowdown from the beginning of the year, compatible with a long-expected deceleration. gdp growth (same quarter in previous year = 100) Source: CSO, Concorde KSH said that most sectors contributed to the stellar performance (they did not mention agriculture and public services). Germany, the largest trading partner ...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Masterplast - Remarkable Results On Hungary, EBITDA Margin Improves Further

Masterplast – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Accumulate (unch.) Target price (12M): Under Revision (unch.)   Masterplast reported revenues came strong in the seasonally strongest quarter, up by 10.8% y-o-y to EUR 31.4 mln. EBITDA came to EUR 2.6 mln, up by 21% y-o-y, as a result of higher revenues and lower other OPEX. EBITDA margin also improved accordingly to 8.4% from 7.8%. Revenues improved y-o-y by 10.8% on the back of strong Hungary (which contains partial contribution from newly acquired T-cell). Hungarian sales increased 31.9% y-o-y despite the mild deceleration in th...

Wizz Air - We Lift PT To GBP 43 After Solid H1/20 Results

WIZZ AIR- Earnings Revision Recommendation:  Accumulate (prev. Neutral) Target price (12M): GBP 43.0 (prev. GBP 36.0) We upgrade Wizz Air to Accumulate from Neutral and raise our 12M TP from GBP 36 to GBP 43 (+15% upside potential), reflecting solid H1/20 results, strong cash generating ULCC model, and the appreciation of the sterling. Wizz Air trades at FY1 P/E of 13.4x and FY2 P/E of 11.3x multiples on our estimates (broadly in line vs. RYA’s FY1/FY2 P/E of c.13.5x/11.9x; EZJ’s FY1/FY2 P/E of c.13.5x/11.5x). We believe Wizz Air deserves higher valuation multiples as they can grow abov...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

Raiffeisen - In Line Results, Improving NIM, NII Are Key Positives

RBI – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): EUR 30.0 (unch.)   RBI reported net income came to EUR 303 mln in the third quarter, in line with analyst estimates of EUR 305 mln. In the first 9M, RBI posted a return on equity of 10.4%, down from 14.4% a year ago, but this was attributed to less risk provision reversals, weaker net trading and hedge accounting results. The other net operating line also included provisions for Romanian settlement in the quarter to the tune of EUR 39 mln. Net interest income improved on a quarterly basis by 3.1% and y-o-y ...

Transgaz - Profit Up On Higher Volumes, Weakening RON

Transgaz - Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Under revision Target price (12M): Under revision     Transgaz reported Q3/19 earnings today, BMO. Taking into account that Q2 & Q3 are seasonally weak periods, net profit amounted to RON 29mn in the reported quarter. Domestic revenues rose 6% YoY on lower regulated tariff, but strong volume growth, while higher international revenues arrived on the back of RON depreciation (Transgaz receive these revenues in USD). Due to the restatement of the previous year’s results, we’ve changed some figures compared to our early comment. On the ...

Romgaz - 3Q/19 Results Were In Line With Estimates

  Romgaz - Earnings Revision Recommendation: Neutral (Accumulate) Price target (12m): RON 37.1 (unch.)  Current share price: RON 37.5   Romgaz’s Q3/19 Romgaz’s Q3/19 net income came to RON 209 mn (-2% YoY) on sales revenue of RON 916 mn (-6% YoY). In the first nine months of 2019, Romgaz achieved net income of RON 1.19 bn (+19% YoY) on sales revenue of RON 3.79 bn (10% YoY). Despite an increase in its market share to 59% Romgaz’ sales performance was negatively affected by lower gas consumption (-5% YoY during the first nine months of the 2019). Natural gas production dropped by 3% YoY ...

Electrica - Profit Slumped On High Electricity Prices

Electrica - Instant Earnings Comment Under revision Target price (12M): Under revision   Electrica reported 9M/19 earnings today, BMO. Electrica registered a net profit of RON 161 million in 9M 2019, down by 49% YoY, mainly due to a substantial increase in the electricity price. Costs with electricity purchase increased by 32% YoY to RON 2.45bn. Total operating costs increased by 22% and reached RON 4.53 billion. Total distributed electricity quantity increased by only 0.5% YoY.   Bottom line: Electrica posted a net income of RON 52mn/161mn (-49/-51% YoY) for Q3/19 and 9M/19, respe...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

TLV - Very Strong Q3 Results

TLV – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): RON 2.5 (unch.)   Banca Transilvania reported net income in the first 9M of 2019 came to RON 1.6 bln, implying a net profit of RON 626 mln vs our forecast of RON 400 mln in Q3. Better than expected results stemmed from risk provisioning as there was a release as well as better fees and other non-interest income (Net F&C, trading and profit from AfS). On a quarterly basis, NII was rather flattish on higher interest expenses and margins as a result also came down by 20bps. Cost-to-income remained under contr...

Wizz Air - Profit Soars, Guidance Upgraded, Management Still Cautious (?), But Confident

WIZZ AIR- Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Neutral Target price (12M): GBP 36.0 (unch.)   Wizz Air published its Q2/20 report today, BMO. The carrier reached a net profit of EUR 299mn (+30% YoY) in Q2/20, our estimate of EUR 280mn (+6.8%) and consensus estimate of EUR288mn (3.8%). Profit guidance was tightened to the range between EUR335-350mn (previously EUR 320-350mn), furthermore the Company expects slightly declining ex-fuel CASK for H2/20. In our view, better-than-expected results were definitely driven by cost discipline as CASK relating to staff, depreciation and passen...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

BVB - Strong Q3 Results On Financial Income And Trading Volumes

BVB - Earnings Comment Recommendation:  Buy (unch.) Target price (12M): RON 34.0 (unch.) BVB reported good results in the third quarter, up by 145% y-o-y and q-o-q. Better results stemmed mainly from significantly higher financial income. The remarkable growth in financial income was attributed to exchange rates impact of the EURRON (unrealized). Trading revenues were down by 0.7% q-o-q but up y-o-y by 21.0%. Despite q-o-q weaker revenues, margins actually improved by 1bps. Y-o-y development was mainly attributed to larger trading value of equities (+22.7% y-o-y). The Company’s net inc...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

CPI - October CPI – Core Indicators Edge Up

October inflation was 2.9%, up 0.1pps from a month earlier. Core inflation rose to 4.0% from 3.9% in September. HEADLINE AND CORE INFLATION (YOY) Source: CSO, Concorde The headline inflation rose mainly as core prices rose even more. Fuel and administered prices had exerted a negative impact on the headline. HEADLINE AND UNDERLYING INFLATION (YOY) Source: MNB The central bank’s underlying inflation indicators have fared mixed, demand sensitive and net core literally eliminating the reduction in the underlying inflation trend in summer months, while sticky price inflation dropped somewhat...

Waberer’s - Not Convincing, But Showing Up Positive Signs

WABERER’S – Instant Earnings Comment Recommendation:  BUY (unch.) Target price (e-o-y): HUF 1,785 (unch.) Share price: HUF 1,280   Not convincing, but showing up positive signs   Waberer's Q3/19 results (7th/Nov) were disappointing once again, affected by negative one-offs due to consulting expenses (HUF 55 per share) related to the transformation programme. Despite Management’s hopes, strong recovery is very unlikely in Q4/19, in our view, which is in line with our previous forecast, however, Audi contract, effective from Dec/19, may support the results in the ongoing quarter. ITS (...

Richter Gedeon - Royalty Income From Vryalar And FX Boosted Profit

  Gedeon Richter - Instant Earnings Comment Rating: Accumulate (unch.) Target price (12-month): HUF 6,300 (unch.)  Current share price: HUF 5,140   Key points for Q3/19 results:     - Total revenues were HUF 127.5 bn (+28% YoY ) 5% higher than cons. estimate and 2% better than our estimate.   - Reported EBIT amounted HUF 17.7 bn (vs. HUF 15.9 bn in Q3/18) including milestone of HUF 12 bn related to Vralyar and impaiments of HUF 5.9 bn on Esmya. Clean EBIT amounted to HUF 21.1 bn (+54% YoY) on our estimate, while clean EBIT margin came in at 16.5% vs. 13.7% in Q3/18.   - Clean opera...

Hai Thanh Le Phuong

OTP Bank - Spectacular Q3 Results

  Summary   Better than expected results, cons. HUF 104.8 bln, Concorde HUF 118.5 bln, actual HUF 131.6 bln net profit also better, HUF 110.5 bln vs. cons HUF 102.4 bln and Concorde HUF 108.5 bln Higher results on one-off HUF 21.4 related to acquisitions, strong NII, Net F&C and lower costs NIM remains subdued, but volumes compensate Loan growth stellar across countries, Hungary strong on baby loans Mgmt changed few points in guidance, but nothing that was not anticipated before Spectacular results, strong fundamentals, but recent rally could fade off       OTP - Instant Earn...

Gellert Gaal