reports
- Mihaly Gajda
Petrom - OMV Petrom In Line With Expectations; 5.8% Dividend Yield
Opinion: Overall, the quarterly results were positive and in line with expectations. The strategy update is a constructive step. The dividend remains defensive due to elevated CAPEX, but this high CAPEX is temporary. While some negative regulatory measures remain in place and new ones are emerging in the form of a higher royalty burden, which triggered the impairment . Initial commentary on the exploration well in Bulgaria sounded negative.
- Mihaly Gajda
OMV - OMV Is Delivering on consensus and pays EUR 4.40 Dividend
OMV reported Clean CCS EBIT of EUR 1,153 mn in Q4 2025, down 9% QoQ and 16% YoY. This was slightly below the analyst consensus of EUR 1,168 mn, but above Concorde’s estimate of EUR 1,127 mn. Clean CCS profit attributable to shareholders reached EUR 548 mn, in line with our expectations and above the consensus of EUR 491 mn, as many analysts appear to have overlooked the unusually low minority interest in the quarter. This reflects the fact that the largest impairment was booked in Romania,...
- Gabor Bukta
Halfway out of the turbulence
Summary We leave our TP at 20.0 GBP and reiterate our Buy recommendation, reflecting the ongoing restructuring story. Following the fiscal Q3/26 conference call held on 29 January, we repeatedly concluded that the fruitful strategic overhaul is under way. The management is building back confidence, so that’s good news for value investors. The problem is that they have to manage high-capacity growth (+24% seats and +30% ASK) during fiscal Q2/27. Key question remains how the market will be able ...
- Mihaly Gajda
Erste – reinitiation of coverage
We reinitiate the coverage of Erste Bank with a Neutral recommendation. Our 2026 year-end ex-dividend target price is EUR 107.0, which implies an upside potential of approximately 4.6%. For 2025, we forecast a dividend of EUR 0.76 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of 10%. At current levels, the stock trades at 1.88× P/TBV, 13.7× 2025 P/E, and 11.5× 2026 P/E.
- Mihaly Gajda
Raiffeisen beats consensus on lower costs and impairments
Key message: Raiffeisen beat market consensus on ex-Russia profit, delivering EUR 416m versus EUR 325m consensus, driven mainly by lower operating costs, lower Polish FX-related expenses, and lower loan-loss impairments, partly offset by significantly weaker other operating income. The lower cost base and reduced impairments point to efficiency improvements and a healthier-than-expected credit environment, reflected in low default levels. Raiffeisen proposed a EUR 1.60 dividend, slightly a...
- Krisztian Karikas
Indirect exposure to the CEE retail segment
We initiate coverage on SPLUS with a TP of EUR 15.0 and a BUY recommendation. Our 2026-Dec ex-div TP implies 28% upside potential and 35% total return upside including a DPS estimate of EUR 0.86 for this year. Based on our forecast, SPLUS trades at 9.1x and 9.1x P/E ratio and a P/NAVps of 0.88x and 0.87x multiple for 2026 and 2027. End of last year, SPLUS acquired eight food-anchored retail parks in Poland in an amount of EUR 195mn. The acquisition was financed through an SPO and a bank l...
- Krisztian Karikas
Duna House - Strong Momentum Continues
Duna House posted strong third quarter results today morning. The Italian and Polish intermediary segment remained very solid while in Hungary the housing transactions accelerated given the Otthon Start Program. In the first nine month, DH delivered HUF 4.9bn cleaned core EBITDA and HUF 2.8bn cleaned core net profit which is already above full year results in last year. Given the strong momentum in DH’s core markets, mgmt. has lifted its full year 2025 guidance to a range of HUF 7.2-7.7bn i...
- Mihaly Gajda
Reinitiation Of Coverage
We reinitiate the coverage of Raiffeisen Bank International with a Buy recommendation. Our 2026 year-end ex-dividend target price is EUR 38.5, which implies an upside potential of approximately 21%. Our base case valuation excludes the Russian operation (zero P/BV). For 2025, we forecast a dividend of EUR 1.45 per share, corresponding to a payout ratio of roughly 30%. At current levels, the stock trades at 0.85× P/TBV, 6.9× 2025 ex-litigation P/E, and 7.0× 2026 ex-litigation P/E, underscoring th...
- Mate Somlai-Kiss
Autowallis - Transitionary Elevated Costs Weigh On Q3 Results
Summary: We leave our TP unchanged at HUF 200 and reiterate our buy Buy rating on AutoWallis. AutoWallis posted Q3/25 earnings today, BMO. Results are not surprising, as top-line and volume growth remains solid, supported by both organic and inorganic expansion, while profitability remains under immense pressure. In Q3/25, group revenues reached HUF 117.8bn (+22.6% YoY). EBITDA decreased on the year by 10.1% to HUF 4.5bn, while EBIT decreased by -29.1% YoY to HUF 2.4bn. EPS came in at HUF...
- Krisztian Karikas
DIGI Communication - Solid Results In Q3 Driven By Strong Performance ...
DIGI has reported its Q3 results today morning. While the revenue growth remained strong, supported by the continued customer base expansion on key markets, the Portugal segment and higher financial expenses weigh on net profit which almost halved compared to last year.
- Krisztian Karikas
Magyar Telekom - Solid Results In Q3, FY Guidance Reiterated
Magyar Telekom has reported strong results for the third quarter and slightly beat market consensus at the bottom line. Even with the lack of inflation-based fee adjustment, MTEL was able increase its profitability partially driven by strong cost control as well as the elimination of suppl. telecom tax. Adjusted net profit reached HUF 55.2bn in the third quarter and increased to HUF 165.6bn in the first nine month. Management reiterated its full year guidance, expecting ca. 15% EBITDAaL gr...
- Mate Somlai-Kiss
Waberer’s - Solid Results Bolster Confidence In FY Guidance
Waberer’s reported Q3/25 earnings today, once again delivering strong results. Quarterly EBIT came in at EUR 12.4mn (+23% YoY) on record quarterly revenues of EUR 205.4mn (+7.8%YoY). Logistics delivered a strong increase in EBIT on lower revenues, coming in at EUR 5.5mn (+53.4%YoY). Insurance EBIT came in at EUR 6.9mn, +6.3% higher than a year ago. The rapid efficiency improvement coming from the Posta Biztosítók acquisition helped deliver solid results, however, the higher-than-expected co...
- Gabor Bukta
OTP - No Surprise In Q3, Guidance Unchanged, TP Lifted
Q3/25 adj. profit came slighly ahead of consensus at HUF 330bn and showed c.2% QoQ positive dynamics on an FX-adjusted basis despite special one-offs having boosted Q2 results. Trends in core banking revenues also came in-line with expectations. NIM stayed flat and NF&C grew by 2% QoQ also on FX adjusted basis, buoyed by the increase in HU, BG and UZB. However, the FV adjustment to the Hungarian subsidized loan portfolio added HUF 8bn in other incomes in Q3, which was indeed also expected o...
- Mihaly Gajda
MOL - MOL Beats Consensus On Clean CCS EBITDA, Driven By Refining And ...
Clean CCS EBITDA came in at USD 974 mn, beating both market consensus (USD 943 mn) and our estimates (USD 990 mn). The biggest positive surprise came from Refining within Downstream and the exceptionally strong performance of Consumer Services. Petrochemicals remained a heavy loss-maker, as expected, with a worsening outlook. However, Waste Management delivered a large and unexpected loss with limited commentary.
- Gabor Bukta
RICHTER GEDEON - Q3 Disappoints, FY25 Guidance Cut, TP Cut
Richter posted disappointing Q3/25 results today morning. The Company missed analysts’ estimates on all lines and maybe in all business units. Revenues missed by 7% and came in at HUF 214bn (-1% YoY, -11% QoQ), while the net profit fell short of expectations by 22%, reaching only HUF 43bn (+17% YoY, -16% YoY). Innovative business units, including CNS and WHC, continued to perform well thanks to the eyecatching growth of Vraylar and Ryeqo, however, they also missed our cEBIT forecast by only...
- Mihaly Gajda
Erste - Erste Beats Analyst Expectations Due To Strong NII And NFCI
Erste beat both the analyst consensus (EUR 836 mn) and our estimate (EUR 864 mn), reporting a net profit of EUR 901 mn. The outperformance was driven by strong NII and NFCI, further supported by a positive surprise in other results. The latter included an EUR 77 mn one-off gain in Romania, which offset banking levies. Asset growth remained healthy across both loans and deposits. Impairments were slightly higher than consensus. Guidance was upgraded for NII and CIR based on an improved earni...
- Mihaly Gajda
Raiffeisen - Raiffeisen Beats Estimates On NII, Costs, And Provisions
Raiffeisen beat both the analyst consensus of EUR 424mn and our estimate of EUR 366 mn on net profit to shareholders excluding Russia, posting EUR 349 mn. The bank outperformed expectations across nearly all key items, most notably in net interest margin, operating expenses, and provisions. An upward revision to the consensus for full-year consolidated profit now appears highly likely, provided there is no exceptionally high provision booking in Q4. Management provided a conservative estim...
- Mihaly Gajda
Petrom - OMV Petrom Misses EBIT Consensus Slightly, Beats On Profit Wi...
OMV Petrom reported a Clean CCS EBIT of RON 1,368 mn, slightly missing consensus by 2.6%, mainly due to the E&P segment. E&P was heavily impacted by impairment charges and higher-than-expected depreciation; excluding the increase in depreciation, its Clean CCS EBIT would have been around RON 510 mn, roughly halfway between the analyst consensus and Concorde’s estimate. We had been more optimistic on realized gas prices, depending on the share of gas sold at market versus capped prices. Oth...
- Mihaly Gajda
OMV - OMV Outperforms Expectations, Driven By Strong Refining Performa...
OMV reported clean CCS EBIT of EUR 1,262 mn in Q3 2025, up 22% QoQ and 20% YoY, beating both the analyst consensus (EUR 1,168 mn) and Concorde’s estimate (EUR 1,173 mn). The outperformance was mainly driven by a strong contribution from Fuels & Feedstock (refining), particularly from ADNOC, the equity-consolidated Middle Eastern joint venture, which delivered EUR 52 mn versus virtually zero in the previous quarter. Consensus likely assumed less than EUR 10 mn. Other segments performed broa...
- Krisztian Karikas
Another strong quarter, Q3 can be even better
Duna House posted record quarterly results in the second quarter as well. The Italian and Polish intermediary segment continued to post strong results while the Hungarian market somewhat slowed down in Q2. Given the improving performance in all three countries, the management reiterated its full year guidance of cleaned core net profit of HUF 2.9- 3.6bn.
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