reports
- Mihaly Gajda
MOL beats consensus on unusually strong Q1 refined product sales
The company outperformed market consensus across all key metrics—USD 833 mn clean EBITDA, USD 495 mn EBIT, and USD 393 mn net profit—the surprise is mainly driven by an unusual 15% YoY increase in Downstream sales and consolidation effects. Upstream also surprised positively due to lower exploration spending and limited royalty impact. Other segments had lower but also positive surprise.
- Mihaly Gajda
OMV Misses Clean CCS EBIT Consensus Amid Continued Refining Weakness
OMV reported a clean CCS EBIT of EUR 1,160 mn in Q1 2025, down 16% quarter-on-quarter and 22% year-on-year, missing the market consensus of EUR 1,232 mn. The shortfall was primarily driven by the continued weak performance of the refining segment, which also disappointed significantly in Q4.
- Mihaly Gajda
Petrom Posts Solid Quarter, In Line with Consensus
The company reported a clean CCS operating profit of RON 1,257 mn, representing a 32% increase QoQ but a 29% decline YoY. Operational performance remained broadly stable compared to the previous quarter, if we take into consideration that Q4 results were significantly impacted by year-end impairments in the E&P segment totalling RON 630 mn. The results are in line with our expectations and the market consensus, although outlook worsened for the coming quarters.
- Krisztian Karikas
Promising start for the year, FY guidance reiterated
Magyar Telekom has reported strong results for the first quarter and beat market consensus estimates. First quarter results are promising to keep the full year guidance even with the lack of inflation-based fee adjustment. Such that management has reiterated its full year guidance, expecting HUF 190bn adjusted net profit and HUF 180bn free cashflow.
- Gabor Bukta
Positive financial impact was underestimated in Q1
Richter posted its Q1/25 results today morning. The Company beat analysts’ estimates in terms of net profit, while revenues and clean EBIT matched expectations. On the bottom line, the beat was attributed to significant FX gains of HUF 11bn (o/w HUF 14.0bn was unrealized). Richter generated an outstanding FCF of HUF 60bn in Q1 despite that we expected that the normalization in payables may drag on this figure. The management reiterated its guidance as they see both revenues and clean EBIT to gro...
- Gabor Bukta
Marginal beat in Q1 driven by higher revenues
OTP’s reported net income came to HUF 189bn in Q1/25, beating the consensus estimate of HUF 184bn by 3% due to better-than-expect total income. 2025 guidance has been left fully unchanged by the management, but the current consensus may not reflect the full potential for 2025. Our 2025 net profit estimate is 9% above the consensus. We roll over to Jun-26 and raise our TP by HUF 30,955, implying a 26% total return upside potential including the dividends after 2024 (c. HUF 1000 adj. for treasury...
- Szabolcs Pal
- Szabolcs Pal
Erste announced not too convincing Q1 results in the shadow of a poten...
Erste’s net income came in at EUR 743mn in Q1, down by 5% YoY and up by 22% QoQ while the figure came 1% ahead of consensus. The key contributors to better-than-expected earnings was provisioning, which was partly offset by NII and other results.
- Gabor Bukta
Guidance beat, trends remain unchanged in Q4
Key message: Waberer’s reported a consolidated EBIT for 2024 of EUR 45.0mn, which translates into a 5% increase compared to 2023. As a result, the management delivered its full-year EBIT guidance of EUR 40mn+. The report lacked forward looking statements but Waberer’s will hold an Investor Day on Friday.
- Krisztian Karikas
Italian intermediation is on the rise
We have revised our forecast for Duna House and incorporated the recent developments over the last year. We set our new 12-m ex-div TP at HUF 1,137, implying 9% upside potential and 14% total return potential, including the next dividend payment. Despite the TR potential exceeding 10% now, we change our recommendation to Neutral due to the lack of short-term catalysts.
- Szabolcs Pal
Strong fundamentals with limited downside risks
We cut our Dec-25 TP to 32.1 RON per share, but remain Buy rated on the stock, implying 20% upside potential including our estimated DPS of 2.1 RON. This reflects the bank’s strong capital returns. Last year TLV was active in M&A in the Romanian and Moldovan markets as they acquired OTP Bank Romania and BCR Chișinău. More importantly, around 95% of OTP customers are already with BT as of the announcement of the 2024 results. As a result, the management expects significant loan and deposit growth...
- Mate Somlai-Kiss
Unbelievable year, and many more to come
ANY Security Printing Co. posted FY/24 results today AMC. The company reported a stellar set of results yet again, that well exceeded our previous forecasts. Revenues came in at HUF 70.5 bn, up +27% YoY, while net profit reached HUF 7.9 bn (+86% YoY), resulting in an EPS of HUF 552. ANY plans to distribute dividends of HUF 464/share (excluding treasury shares), resulting in a DivY of 9.1%. FY/24 results convince us about longer-term elevated profitability, therefore, after reviewing ou...
- Gabor Bukta
The Art of Deal: OMV secures an advantageous merger deal with ADNOC
We have revised our target price for OMV, after the successful merger with ADNOC regarding the combination of Borealis and Borouge. The agreed terms are highly favourable for OMV. Accordingly, we raise our 2025 year-end ex-dividend target price from EUR 42.6 to EUR 50.0, implying an upside potential of 25.0%. The merger will result in the deconsolidation of Borealis from OMV's financial statements, with its stake in the newly formed entity will be reported as an equity-accounted investment. At ...
- Gabor Bukta
Q4 fully in-line, ’25 guidance is a big surprise
OTP’s reported net income came to HUF 250bn in Q4, which was fully in line both with our and consensus estimate. OTP may propose a DPS of HUF 964, which broadly matches our forecast of HUF 962, while the management intends to continue the SBB program. More importantly, 2025 guidance will surprise the market to the upside, and we expect a net profit of HUF 1,167bn. As a result, we raise our Dec-25 TP by 7% to HUF 30,175, implying a 22% upside including the dividends.
- Krisztian Karikas
Solid performance in Q4, new markets are on track
DIGI posted its key numbers today morning, however detailed report hasn’t been published yet. Revenues increased by 14% YoY and came in at EUR 1.925bn which was boosted by additional EUR 407mn from the sale of its Spanish FTTH network in Q3, hence total revenues were EUR 2.33bn, 37% higher YoY.
- Krisztian Karikas
Above guidance results in ‘24, strong mid-term growth strategy announ...
Duna House posted strong results for Q4 and cleaned core net results came in higher than the management guidance. Revenues increased by 20% YoY in 2024, reported EBITDA came in 67% higher YoY, while cleaned core EBITDA reached HUF 4.8bn, up by 80% YoY. Net profit came in 18% lower YoY, due to lower financial income on cash deposits and higher tax expenses. Cleaned core net income reached HUF 2.4bn (+35% YoY), above the higher range of HUF 2.3bn guidance. The BoD proposed HUF 43.6 DPS ...
- Szabolcs Pal
Unsurprising Q4 results and stable outlook but nothing special
We have cut down our recommendation to Neutral from the previous BUY because we believe the stock is fairly priced and the current 9.1x P/E is well above its market peers. We roll over and raise our 2025-YE ex-div target price to EUR 64.2 from EUR 61.1, implying a 3.6% TR upside potential including a DPS of EUR 3 over the TP period.
- Mate Somlai-Kiss
Market weakness weighs on profitability, outlook raises our TP
AutoWallis posted FY/24 results this morning. Revenues came perfectly in line with our estimates at HUF 398.5 bn, increasing 8.8% YoY. Profitability shrunk significantly last year, as the European automotive industry struggled with weak demand globally. Despite this, earnings came ahead of our estimates, as EBITDA reached HUF 20.2 bn (vs. Concorde: HUF 18,7 bn), while EPS resulted in HUF 12,8 (vs. Concorde: HUF 12,2). The difference is mainly due to the stronger Q4 results, which m...
- Gabor Bukta
2025 guidance matches our estimates
In brief, Richter posted a better-than-expected net income for Q4 and 2024 today morning as it reported PAT of 64bn. Positive one-offs affected EBIT, but we are very disappointed due to the surge in OPEX, especially in the WHC and GM segments, which may leave some room for further improvements this year. 2025 guidance matches our forecasts in EUR terms.
- Mihaly Gajda
MOL heavily miss pre-tax profit and profit consensus due to one-off it...
MOL slightly missed Clean CCS-based EBITDA consensus, reporting USD 682 mn vs. USD 704 mn. However, pre-tax profit and net profit fell significantly short due to one-off factors, including a larger-than-expected CCS effect in Downstream, a year-end impairment in Upstream, and a substantial FX loss from HUF depreciation—partially offset by a much lower-than-expected extra tax in Slovakia. Annual operating cash flow is up 4% YoY, and 2025 guidance is 10% above Bloomberg consensus, support...
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