Q2 was a mixed bag as both revenue and EBITDA accelerated and are tracking well against the full year expectations, however, net losses were higher YoY than expected on tax and delinquency charges for Rakuten Card (~¥4.9bn), higher tax and minority interest and lower net finance income.
LG Uplus printed better numbers in Q2 as service revenue and earnings growth accelerated, putting it closer to its 6%-6.5% profit margin target by 2027. Importantly, capex spend continues to moderate which is supportive for cash flow and therefore shareholder remuneration. The company had instituted a KRW 80bn (USD50m) buyback back in July, ahead of our forecasts and translates to 5.7% shareholder remuneration yield on our estimates.
With the orfo’ data being on the lower side of expectations, we upgrade to Hold as the narrative is likely to be dominated by the potential upside for Novo. However, we remain convinced that: 1) The obesity market is nowhere near as big as the market believes, 2) Ozempic no’s are far too high & 3) Margin forecasts need to fall. Cons’ Ozempic forecasts will take time to fall & we will likely need the IRA price in November to force consensus lower. Therefore, we see limited S-T downside to our DKK...
In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. 3Q25 revenue deceleration hangs over the stock 2. Management remains confident that Amazon DSP is not a competitor 3. Kokai adoption reaches three quarters of spend 4. CFO transition announced, other leadership changes evolve go-to-market
In this first take following tonight’s results, we touch on: 1. Pullback due to heightened expectations, no change to our thesis 2. De minimis and other tariff policies impact regional mix, but not overall trend 3. More Performance+ adoption in the mid-market, hints of what could come in SMB 4. MAU growth on track as Gen Z passes 50% of total, larger focus on men underway 5. As expected, margin gains continue to ease
United Internet reported a mixed Q2, with weak EBITDA at 1&1 offset by continued strength at IONOS. 1&1 service revenue trends were stable, although recent Telefonica discounts risk increasing competitive intensity at the low end of the market.
Decent numbers, but the key announcement today relates to the separation of the Puerto Rico silo. From an equity, and non-PR debt holders’ perspective clearly (very) positive, for PR debt holders more mixed but still on balance positive.
EBITDA missed expectations again but guidance for the year remains unchanged. The miss was driven by lower broadband revenue and higher other operating expenses. The guidance implies that EBITDA will grow by at least 3% in the back half of the year. This seems unlikely on the surface, but management has implemented a 5% workforce reduction in 2Q which they expect to help meet EBITDA guidance for the year.
DT’s Q2 financial results were in line with expectations and all guidance has been reiterated. However, now that all of the German operators have reported we can see that there are increasing signs of the broadband market in Germany slowing faster in Q2, albeit this is being offset by more encouraging pricing trends.
VEON delivered another round of decent growth across almost all geographies, driving 6% revenue growth and 13% EBITDA growth in US$. As a result, it lifted local currency revenue and EBITDA guidance by 1%, a function of the acquisition of Uklon rather than underlying upgrades.
Swisscom has reported a good set of numbers vs consensus, with a strong EBITDA beat, but SR trends have deteriorated slightly in Switzerland and guidance has not been lifted for FY25, suggesting a pull forward of cost out, rather than a more material fundamental improvement.
In this first take following this morning’s results we focus on: 1. 1st stock upside driver is 3Q25 revenue guidance, the second 2nd leg is AI enthusiasm 2. GMV and revenue strength are the star of today’s show 3. Latest AI innovations target a future of agentic commerce 4. Gross profit lags revenue as absolute dollar growth remains the focus 5. FCF margin outlook unchanged as reinvestment remains the focus
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