Palo Alto Networks 1FQ25: Platformization progressing and going mainst...

Nvidia 3FQ25: beat & guide up; Buy, $173 TP.

Nvidia reported 3FQ25 yesterday.

Ad Expert Call Takeaways: GOOGL Ad Tech, TTD, PMax, Advantage+, and th...

Yesterday, we hosted a call with Jeremy Woodlee, CEO of Santa Ynez Partners, a boutique advisory firm focused on digital media and ad tech. Previously, he spent three years at Accenture leading its global relationship with Google Ads after spending 11 years at Google, and three years at Magnite (fka Rubicon Project).

Japanese Telcos Q2 FY24 review: Stable growth with better profitabili...

Service revenue slowed for the incumbents but stayed in the low-single digit band, with Softbank still ahead followed by NTT. Mobile divergence continues to play out with SB leading the pack and is likely to remain so in our view. Industry EBITDA improved as NTT inflected to growth and led to a strong EBIT beat this quarter.

Eir (Most Preferred) Q3 24: A solid set of numbers, but growth has sl...

Eir has reported a solid set of Q3 numbers, but underlying trends are slower than in Q2, with SR growth of 0.0% y/y from +1.7% y/y and EBITDAaL growth +0.7% y/y from +2.8% y/y in Q2.

Soitec 1FH25: Inventory correction progressing as planned

Soitec reported 1FH2 yesterday.

Kuaishou 3Q24 Results: Near-Term Traffic Support Could Impact OMS

What’s new: Kuaishou’s reported 3Q24 revs that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. OMS could decelerate in 4Q partly due to impact on closed-loop ads as Kuaishou continue to provide merchant traffic support during the major promotion event. Kuaishou would also continue to invest in subsidies related to short plays, e-commerce and local services in 4Q. We lower our PT from HKD70 to HKD60 on lowered outlook. Our updated PT of HKD60 implies 11.8x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY...

Comcast Spins: Regulatory Implications

Comcast has announced it is spinning off its cable channels. As we wrote in a note when Comcast executives first publicly discussed this possibility, while the spin itself does not create any regulatory issues, the implications down the road were less clear, particularly if Trump was elected. Now that he has been, we provide some updated thoughts here.

CMCSA: cable networks spin announced – a fast-and-loose analysis

Comcast announced plans for the spin-off today. This was previewed at earnings, and anticipated in press reports last night. While the announcement was no surprise, it came sooner than we had hoped. We had been meaning to build a model for SpinCo in anticipation of the announcement but hadn’t gotten to it yet. We run some very fast-and-loose analysis in this note, compiled in just a few minutes this morning following the release. If other analysts have made a proper attempt to strip out Comcast’...

Broadband quick hit: Louisiana BEAD winners announced

Yesterday, Louisiana Office of Broadband Development & Connectivity announced the winners of their BEAD process. T-Mobile showed up as part of a consortium that won most of the grants, while Cable Companies and ILECs won less than we expected. In this short note, we discuss the results, compare them with estimates from our Broadband Insights database, and discuss the implications for broadband companies.

Pinterest (PINS, Buy, $47 target) What’s next for Performance+ in 202...

Yesterday, PINS hosted its first webinar for advertisers about Performance+, the company’s new AI-based automated ad buying suite.

Bible 3Q24 - Smartphones: Sluggish demand; 5G cycle resumes; iPhone mi...

Demand is sluggish, with the 2024 and 2025 outlooks implying slight unit growth after 2022 & 2023 down 13% & 4% respectively. With saturation and elongating replacement cycles, we see that as a best case. The December quarter iPhone guide missed consensus expectations, and we expect further downside. Replacement cycles are elongating, share gains in China have stalled, and recent datapoints support our view (Apple lowering iPhone 16 production plans). Semi revenues are back to secular growth, dr...

Tesla: early thoughts on FSD v12.5.6.3 and the upcoming v13

FSD v12.5.6.3, released over HW4 last week, introduced material architectural changes and may pave the way for an acceleration of improvements. This note summarizes our updated thoughts.

WB 3Q24 Results: Ad Recovery Could Take Time

What’s new: Weibo’s reported 3Q24 results that were above consensus and our expectations. Ads could be challenging in 4Q partly due to tougher comps in gaming and pull-forward ad demand from Summer Olympics in 3Q. We maintain our PT at USD10. Analysts: Jin Yoon

VIPS 3Q24 Results: Visibility Remains Limited

What’s new: Vipshop’s reported 3Q24 revs that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. Guidance implies rev growth could remain under pressure where QTD performance could trend towards the lower end of the range. Margins could remain largely stable despite near-term pressure on top-line growth. We maintain our PT at US$11. Analysts: Jin Yoon

SATS: a thought on the debt exchange

In this note we show how there is at least $0.7BN of additional value on the table that could help narrow the discount DBS bondholders are being asked to accept in order to get the DTV deal across the goal line. We also run through the differences between the four segments EchoStar reports at earnings and the four filing entities they disclose to the SEC. We also update our estimates for DBS, Dish Networks and Hughes now that their 10-Q’s have been filed.

Alphabet (GOOGL, Buy, target increases to $213 from $212) Amazon.com (...

We have updated our estimates for Amazon Web Services (AWS) and Google Cloud Platform’s (GCP) revenues from AI products and services after updating our installed base in our AI Capex update last week (see HERE), and more importantly, new pricing information we found on the AWS and GCP websites.

TCOM 3Q24 Results: Travel Demand Remains Resilient

What’s new: Trip.com’s reported 3Q24 revs that were largely in-line with consensus and our expectations. Travel demand could remain resilient where TCOM could continue to gain market share in both domestic and international markets in 4Q. We up our PT from US$65 to US$75 on resilient travel demand. Our revised PT implies an 18.5x FY25E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon

BT (Buy, 220p, +53%) The press is not right – Mittal has not “complet...

BT has disclosed that Mittal now has a 24.5% voting interest in BT. Therefore, the press is reporting that Mittal has now completed the stake purchase.

China Mobile (Buy, TP: HK$ 115, +62%) Potential stake acquisition of ...

Bloomberg has reported that China Mobile is mulling the acquisition of HKBN (HK: 1310) from TPG and MBK Partners for at least HK$5 per share. This implies an equity valuation of at least HK$6.56bn (US$ 853m) and represents 16% upside from today's share price. Our brief thoughts below.