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Blair Levin ... (+2)
  • Blair Levin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer

While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

Updates on VZ in CA and Upcoming SCOTUS Decision on USF

Verizon just filed a response to questions raised by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) related to DEI and the Supreme Court, as early as today but no later than the end of month, will rule on the case challenging the legality of the current framework for the Universal Service Fund (USF). In this quick note, we analyze the VZ filing and the likely outcomes and impacts of the Court ruling.

Ben Rickett
  • Ben Rickett

Eutelsat French bail out agreed, but guidance falls short

Yesterday Eutelsat announced their long-awaited equity raise (€1.35bn, mainly from the French shareholders) and issued new guidance for FY26 (disappointing) and FY29 (dubious). In this Quick Take, we discuss the new shareholder structure, new guidance, and new LEO revenue disclosure.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.9, +16%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €53, +39%) Altice Fra...

One of the prominent features of the recent results season for France was a seeming shift in strategy from SFR, as it focused on subs over ARPU.

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Liquid Intelligent Technologies (High Yield) – Q4 25: Decent quarter, ...

Liquid has reported a decent set of Q4 results with underlying revenue trends improving and decent cash generation.

Ben Rickett
  • Ben Rickett

Eutelsat (Sell, €1.0, -60%) French army provides some reinforcement

The French army yesterday announced a framework agreement with Eutelsat, including the procurement of OneWeb capacity. In this Quick Take we discuss how much revenue this contact could generate, and implications for the longer-term viability of Eutelsat’s LEO ambitions.

Transgene Sponsored Research Strong TG4050 Data Presented at ASCO

Transgene presented two-year follow-up results from their Ph1 trial of TG4050, an individualised neoantigen therapeutic cancer vaccine, at ASCO. The data demonstrated clinical proof of principle in the adjuvant treatment of head and neck cancer.

Dominic Rose ... (+2)
  • Dominic Rose
  • Naresh Chouhan

Transgene - Strong TG4050 Data Presented at ASCO (Sponsored Research, ...

Transgene presented two-year follow-up results from their Ph1 trial of TG4050, an individualised neoantigen therapeutic cancer vaccine, at ASCO. The data demonstrated clinical proof of principle in the adjuvant treatment of head and neck cancer. TG4050 monotherapy generated durable immune responses lasting up to two years and met all trial endpoints, including disease-free survival, immune activation and safety. Remarkably, 100% of patients treated with TG4050 remained disease-free - an exceptio...

Chris Hoare
  • Chris Hoare

Chinese Telcos Q1 25 review: Better profitability despite slower topl...

Service revenue trends slowed in Q1 amid macro headwinds, but EBITDA returned to growth. This continued to drive earnings and therefore dividend growth. With capex continuing to fall in absolute terms, the Chinese telcos continue to look cheap. For investors unable to access this space, we recommend to monitor the developments in China as we see it as a leading indicator for EM telcos more broadly.

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

OTE (Neutral, TP: €17, +4%) OTE: Downgrade to Neutral following PPC e...

OTE shares are up 13% YTD vs the sector 10% (inc dividends for both). We have been long-term Buyers, but downgrade to Neutral given new retail offers from PPC (launched yesterday) that are at a c50% to market offers.

Jonathan Chaplin
  • Jonathan Chaplin

CHTR Quick Hit: Insights from preliminary proxy

Charter filed a preliminary proxy earlier today. We now have detailed historical and projected financials for Cox. The standalone forecasts and synergy forecasts are below ours, but in-line with consensus and prior guidance. We provide comparisons in this brief note.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

AMZN (Buy, $260 target)/TTD (Neutral, $75 target) Part II: CTV footpri...

This week at Cannes, Amazon DSP announced integrations with ROKU and DIS, both of which have driven more questions about competitive positioning in CTV with TTD. • We discussed a variety of changes at Amazon DSP and its positioning versus TTD and GOOGL’s DV 360 earlier this month in Part I HERE. Getting less attention are advances in AI ad creative tools, including AMZN’s first disclosure about adoption of its tools. TTD is not developing its own gen AI ad creative tools but expanded its roste...

James Ratzer
  • James Ratzer

Vodafone to Virgin spectrum sale: More details revealed

As part of the Vodafone-Three merger (VOD3UK), the merging companies committed to sell a portfolio of spectrum to VMO2. The details of that spectrum portfolio have now been formally disclosed by Ofcom, which has published a notification listing the frequencies that are due to be transferred (LINK). In this note, we run through the final decisions and implications for potential UK revenue share.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 1Q25

We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 237 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.

Dan Salmon
  • Dan Salmon

Alphabet (GOOGL, Buy, $210 target) Takeaways from SMX Advanced

Last week we attended the largest annual conference focused on search marketing, SMX Advanced, including the keynote from GOOGL’s Ads Liaison. We spoke with over two dozen presenters and executives over two days, and our key takeaways include:

Russell Waller
  • Russell Waller

NOS (Sell, TP: €3.11, -18%) Digi (Underweight) Altice International (E...

One of the key questions in European Telecoms at the moment is how successful will Digi be in Portugal, Spain and Belgium; and to a lesser extent, how successful can the challengers be in general: Salt, Iliad Italy, and so on. In this report, we take a top-down look at how spectrum drives success in European mobile, and what that means for future outcomes.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 1Q25 – Enterprise IT: AI drives Cloud growth, SaaS not reacceler...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending is moderating after a strong 2H24, but public-cloud growth remains steady as AI demand offsets a slowdown in traditional workloads. SaaS revenue growth remains in the low-teens with...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?

Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.

Blair Levin
  • Blair Levin

VZ/FYBR Faces California Trump Transaction Trap

The VZ/FYBR deal obtained approval from the FCC by providing a letter modifying its DEI efforts. That letter, however, has raised issues with the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), which also must approve the deal. In this note we analyze the interplay of the demands of the FCC and CPUC and how we think the situation may be resolved.

Indian Telcos Q4 FY25 review: Stay constructive

India’s mobile sector sustained mid-teen growth again, though we expect a slowdown to high single digits from 2QFY25 onwards once last July’s tariff increase is lapped. Margin expansion remains a theme too. We stay constructive on India with Bharti Airtel as our preferred pick, but would continue to see Singtel as having more upside.

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