reports
- Dan Salmon
GOOGL Newfront Insights: Y’all know me, still the same OG (+ read thro...
GOOGL hosted its annual Newfront presentation in NYC yesterday. The focus was almost entirely on the Google Marketing Platform, especially GOOGL’s demand-side platform (DSP), DV 360. In the note, we review the implications of several new announcements, including: 1. Setting the Scene: The evolution of GOOGL’s NewFront participation & key themes 2. Live Sports Biddable Suite for DV 360 ups the ante versus TTD and AMZN DSP 3. SKU-level reporting + KR partnership bring more commerce media into DV 3...
- Ben Harwood
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: Updating for Versant spin, new PT is $34
Having digested the revised trending schedules for the Versant spin, we are updating our Comcast model for the new disclosures, our conversations with management, and for comments at industry conferences. In this note, we compare the disclosures in the new trending schedule with prior reports. We also share our updated operating and financial estimates for 1Q and full year 2026. Finally, we have updated our valuation for the Versant spin and revised our Comcast price target to $34.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 4Q25 - Hyperscale & Cloud: continued capex revisions; visibility...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. AI is increasing capital intensity and productivity. Public cloud growth is approaching 35% YoY, constrained by capacity addition. Similar comments at every step of the supply chain: compute, m...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
4Q25 – PCs: Brace for a tough 2026 as memory prices kill demand
Today, we are publishing the PCs section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. 2026 is shaping up as a tough year for PCs: rising memory prices are killing demand, with shipments down low-teens. OEM revenues will prove more resilient as mix shifts toward high-end and ASPs increase. Conse...
- Blair Levin
NXST/TGNA Closes while States, DTV, and Others Sue
In rapid order late last week, states and DirecTV sued to block the NXST/TGNA deal, NXST made commitments to the FCC, the FCC Media Bureau and DOJ approved the deal, the deal closed and a coalition petitioned the FCC (and soon the courts) to overturn the order. In this note we describe the actions, discuss what’s next, note how the events of last week shifted the risks from TGNA shareholders to NXST shareholders, and describe what those risks are.
- Chris Hoare
Indian Telcos Q3 FY26 review: AGR relief for Vodafone Idea, Jio’s IPO...
India’s mobile revenue growth moderated as expected, as July 2024’s tariff increase has now been lapped. Jio’s IPO seems to be gathering steam, with Reliance rumoured to have appointed bankers after the government approved a change to allow listings with only 2.5% free float. Either before, or shortly after, we foresee another price increase.
- Chris Hoare
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $14.7, +88%) Feedback from call with CFO
We hosted a Zoom call with Liberty Latin America CFO, Chris Noyes, and Head of IR, Soomit Datta on Tuesday last week. We talked about CWC, Puerto Rico, Liberty Networks, cost cutting and LLA’s capital allocation. The overall tone was cautiously optimistic.
- Russell Waller
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
Inwit (Buy, €9.5, +52%) Previously: €11.8 Relationship status: It's c...
Inwit has issued new guidance reflecting the breakdown in the relationship with the two anchor tenants (TIM and Swisscom), implying a mid-teens cut to our cash flow forecasts. But the market thinks there’s more to come, with the current share price implying a substantial cut to MSA revenue at renewal (whether that be in 2028 or 2038).
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
United Internet/ 1&1 4Q25: Mid-term guidance implies FCF upside
We were in Frankfurt yesterday where United Internet provided new guidance for 2026, and new 1&1 guidance out to 2028, implying upside to mid-term FCF. In this note we review that guidance and discuss 1&1’s valuation following the Versatel transfer.
- Jin Yoon
BABA FY3Q26 Results: AI Investments to Weigh Down Margins for FY27
What’s new: Alibaba’s reported FY3Q26 results that were below consensus and our expectations. External cloud and AI revs could grow at least 40% CAGR over the next five years as demand for AI remains resilient. However, investments in AI including marketing spending related to Qwen App could continue to weigh down margins heading into FY27. We lower our PT from US$200 to US$170 on lowered margin outlook. Our updated PT of US$170 implies 21.8x FY27E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin...
- Dan Salmon
AMZN: Quick Thoughts on The Battle in Seattle, AWS in 10 years & “Othe...
In this brief report, we discuss the implications of recent news about: 1. MSFT considering legal action vs AWS & OpenAI over new products 2. Jassy’s $600B AWS comments: bullish long-term, but does little for short-term sentiment 3. Capex is about more than just AWS, as recent logistics/fulfillment changes highlight
- Jin Yoon
BZ 4Q25 Results: Recruitment Demand Remains Healthy
What’s new: BZ’s reported 4Q25 revs that were above consensus and our expectations. The lower-than-expected 1Q guide was partly due to late CNY. Rev growth in 2Q could fare better than 1Q as recruitment demand could gradually recover throughout 2026. We lower our PT from USD25 to USD20 as the pace of recovery could be slower than our initial expectations. Our updated PT of USD20 implies 15.2x FY26E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- Jin Yoon
WB 4Q25 Results: Margin Could Remain Under Pressure in FY26 Partly due...
What’s new: Weibo’s reported 4Q25 revs that beat consensus and our expectations. Ad revs could remain resilient partly driven by key categories including e-commerce. Margins could remain under pressure in 1Q26 and FY26 as the company could reinvest part of the profit in AI. We lower our PT from US$13 to US$10 on lowered margin outlook. Our updated PT of US$10 implies 6.2x FY26E P/E. We maintain our BUY rating. Analysts: Jin Yoon
- James Ratzer
Spectrum alert Why a decision in Malta is more relevant than you migh...
This is the first time we have written a note “directly” on Maltese telecoms. Eagle-eyed followers of our work will know we have touched on it before looking at fixed-mobile convergence when Vodafone used to be in the market – but that was pre-2020! So why are we writing on it now? Why is it relevant?
- Jin Yoon
Tencent 4Q25 Results: AI Investment to Partly Weigh Down Margins in FY...
What’s new: Tencent’s reported 4Q25 revs that were largely in line with consensus and above our expectations. Rev growth momentum could remain resilient in 1Q across key business segments. Tencent plans to at least double investments in AI to more than RMB36bn which could partly weigh down margins in FY26. We maintain our PT at HKD750. Analysts: Jin Yoon
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