reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The NSR AI datacenter economics cheat sheet
As we spend our days and many of our nights helping you understand what is going on in the world of AI infrastructure, we refine continuously our understanding of the cost of AI, combining our understanding of the economics of every step of the supply chain. We crystalized that in a digestible format today. Everything you need to know about a 1GW datacenter on a single slide.
- Blair Levin
Winners and Losers (in Capital Markets) in the Kimmel Saga
Now that Kimmel is back on the air, is the saga of his suspension over from a capital markets perspective? We think not. In this note, we outline what we think will be the effect as the media sector wrestles with technological, market, and policy changes, as well as who we think the winners and losers will be in the dynamics that emerge from the twists and turns of the last week.
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Impact of Price caps on funding
Based on a leaked internal NTIA memo related to BEAD, it seems like the final proposals by the states may not be final and the NTIA may force them to make changes to their plans. We have analyzed all the proposals so far and estimate that Comcast, AT&T and Frontier may be most impacted by these rules. However, the overall impact isn’t material.
- Vikash Harlalka
Cable’s win share among movers
There has been an ongoing debate among investors whether low moves actually hurt the Cable companies. Until now, it wasn’t possible to answer this question due to lack of data. We now have data from Opensignal that helps us answer this question. In this report, we show that the large Cable operators have been winning more than 50% share among movers who are new to their footprint. The win share has declined over time, especially as competitive intensity has increased. Cable operators can reduce ...
- Chris Hoare
- Dan Salmon
- Vikash Harlalka
BEAD: Another Major Update
We are almost in the home stretch of the BEAD proposal process. In this latest update, we now include BEAD proposals from 48 states & territories. We also incorporate the revisions in some state proposals. Comcast and Brightspeed are at the top of the list among wireline operators. Fiber’s share of locations remained unchanged from our last update. Satellite and FWA together account for close to a third of the locations awarded.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Chinese power semis: Quantifying the risk to Western vendors
Chinese power semiconductor vendors have gained 10pts of global share over the past five years. In this note, we break down where the gains came from, who lost out, and how we expect the competitive landscape to evolve. We also outline the implications for Infineon, onsemi, and STMicro. Please see the link below.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Dan Salmon
Alphabet (GOOGL, Buy, $275 target) Amazon (AMZN, Buy, $270 target) Si...
The past several weeks have seen a flurry of news related to OpenAI’s compute needs, including its massive deal with ORCL, its new arrangement with NVDA, and several sets of leaked financials published by The Information, including a new forecast for backup capacity. This has put more focus on potential revenue from Anthropic and other AI customers at AWS and GCP.
- Chris Hoare
Nigerian Telcos Q2 25 review: Very strong; Upgrade MTN and AAF price ...
Local currency growth accelerated to above 60% in Q2 (from 40% in Q1), driven by a full quarter impact from the 50% price increase approval, and the improving macro. EBITDA performance in Q2 was very strong for both players and especially for MTN.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Vikash Harlalka
ATUS 3Q25 Preview
This report covers changes to our model to incorporate recent management commentary at investor conferences. We increased broadband losses and lowered EBITDA for the quarter (full year EBITDA remains unchanged). We expect consensus estimates to come closer to our estimates. No change to thesis.
- Chris Hoare
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Oracle: What will life after giant RPOs look like?
Oracle entered a 4.5GW, $300bn, 5-year contract with OpenAI, starting 2027. In our note yesterday, we showed what we know of the deal suggests balanced and straightforward economics, over the life of the contract. Today we extend the analysis: GPUs aren’t scrapped after 5 years, and Oracle may in reality, after these contracts, boost profitability, monetizing fully depreciated assets, much like TSMC at the lagging edge.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Blair Levin
VZ/FYBR California Timing
Last week we published a note on the status of the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) review of the VZ/FYBR deal. While noting that the risk of rejection had gone down, we also noted that the timing was unlikely to be as quick as what VZ was pushing for. Last Friday, the CPUC confirmed that the decision will be later than what VZ was hoping for. In this note we quickly review the Friday order and its implications.
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA Quick Hit: Versant Spin Accretive to Comcast Valuation
Comcast filed Form 10 for Versant late last week. Versant includes most of Comcast’s cable networks and some digital media assets. In this short note, we analyze the financials of Versant, the impact of the spin-off on Comcast’s growth, valuation of Versant, and the potential upside to Comcast’s stock following the spin-off.
- Philip Burnett
TMUS Quick Take: Srini replacing Mike as CEO
T-Mobile announced that Srini Gopalan will replace Mike Sievert as CEO of T-Mobile on November 1st. Mike will remain as Vice Chairman of the company, a new role that they say will have Mike continue as an operator at the company (rather than purely a figurehead). Srini's new contract runs through November 2030, while Mike's renews annually. The company has also amended the contracts of the existing CFO and President of Marketing, which seems meant to signal that Srini won't replace the entire C-...
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