reports
- Blair Levin
NXST/TGNA: How will Trump’s New Posts and the WBD Battle Affect the De...
Recently, President Trump posted something the market perceived as negative news for the NXST/TGNA deal, sending both stocks down. We published a note in which we laid out why we believed that the risk to the deal has risen but still thought the odds favored approval. Some have challenged our view, and Trump subsequently directly criticized Nexstar’s news programming. In addition, the battle about WBD media consolidation have dominated headlines. In this note, we address how Trump’s most rece...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Foundries: Strong set-up for TSMC into 2026. Downside ris...
Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC increased its 2025 growth outlook to 35%, as we anticipated. For other foundries, expectations were revised down 1pt to 9% growth in 2025, which implies a reasonable 2% sequential growth in 4Q. For ne...
- Blair Levin
In Partial Win for Cable, Trump Memoranda Appears to Protect CBRS
Late Friday, President Trump released a new Presidential Memoranda on 6G and Spectrum. While what the Memoranda said is largely a restatement of what we have previously reported, we think the most important element for investors is what it didn’t say; specifically, that by omission it appears to protect the spectrum known as the Citizens Band Radio Services (CBRS) currently used by cable (and others) for wireless services. In this note we provide an analysis of the Memoranda.
- Vikash Harlalka
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 3Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 242 pages of detailed analysis on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:
ERIC B TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON CLASS B
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Chris Hoare
Indonesian Telcos Q3 25 review: Momentum expected into Q4
Mobile rebounded sharply after 4 quarters of declines, as the price up initiatives in 1H25 have started to flow through. To some extent though this is already reflected in consensus which expects momentum to continue into Q4, which are broadly in-line with the recalibrated guidance. YTD, XLSmart’s stock has been the outperformer and rightfully so given the anticipated synergies.
- James Ratzer
- James Ratzer
- Dan Salmon
Amazon (Buy, $340 target) AGI re-org looks +ve for Trainium as "Great...
Earlier this week, AMZN CEO Andy Jassy announced the creation of “a new organization that drives our most expansive AI models (e.g. Nova—and the team we’ve called “AGI”), silicon development (e.g. Graviton, Trainium, Nitro), and quantum computing,” to be led by 27-year veteran, and AMZN lifer, Peter DeSantis.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Tesla’s robotaxi secret weapon: customer vehicles
We published a deep dive on Wednesday outlining how we see Tesla stepping into the robotaxi opportunity. In today’s note, we focus on one of Tesla’s key advantages: customer-owned vehicles, and how they provide Tesla with a structural advantage versus peers.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Gen AI Big Idea Series – The Broadcom Platform – Hock Tan, CEO
We hosted another session of the 5th annual BCG × NSR Gen-AI Big Idea Series this week. We will host a slate of exceptional speakers through Feb-26 (full line-up here). This session was a conversation with Hock Tan, CEO of Broadcom, along with Kirsten Spears, CFO, and Charlie Kawwas, President of the Semiconductor Solutions Group. Please see the link below for our takes.
- Blair Levin
VZ/FBYR/CPUC Update: Build Out Requirements Remain an Issue
In a recent analysis of an Administrative Law Judge issuing a Proposed Decision recommending California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) approval of the VZ/FYBR deal, albeit with numerous conditions, we focused on the conditions related to the tension between VZ’s letter to the FCC changing its policies toward DEI and requirements under California law and regulation, as that has been the key discussion point in the process to date. We noted but did not focus on the build-out requirement in pa...
- Blair Levin
More Delay and Uncertainty Ahead for BEAD Program
Since Trump’s re-election more than 13 months ago there has been uncertainty as to how and when NTIA would distribute the BEAD money to the states. Due to recent events involving the GAO, NTIA contractual language, and the AI Executive order, that uncertainty will continue into 2026. In this note we describe the causes of uncertainty and the path for resolution.
- James Ratzer
Cellnex vs. Telefonica Cellnex (Buy, €34, +32%) Telefonica (Reduce, ...
On Wednesday, we published our European Telecoms Year Ahead note for 2026. In that note, we upgraded Cellnex to a Buy, as we think the market’s worst fears on growth are overdone, and we downgraded Telefonica to a Reduce, as we fear the low cashflow growth outlook is not being properly priced in. However, in that sector report, we missed out one important aspect to back up this diverging view of value and we now highlight that here.
- Ben Rickett
- James Ratzer
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 3Q25 – Enterprise IT: Legacy and SaaS growth stable, Cloud servi...
Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending is stabilizing after a strong 2H24, while public-cloud growth accelerates on broad-based strength across AI and traditional workloads. SaaS revenue growth remains in the low-teens ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Vikash Harlalka
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