Micron 3FQ25: Our thesis is playing out - Buy, $170 TP.

Micron reported 3FQ25 last night.

The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory

Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...

As SATS Chapter 11 Clock Clicks Down, Does FCC Need to Act?

On May 30th, SATS declined to make an $326 million interest payment. Given the automatic 30-day grace period, that means SATS must either make the payment by June 30th or it goes into default. Per President’s Trump’s instructions, Chairman Carr is supposed to be negotiating with Charlie Ergen to see if there is a path to avoid bankruptcy. In this note we discuss what we know and cannot know about those negotiations.

South Korean Telcos Q1 25 review: Peers expected to benefit near-term...

Margins are improving as operators execute on cost discipline and shift away from less profitable operations. As capex intensity falls, cash flow is rising and so therefore are dividends or buybacks; LG is expected to announce a buyback in 2H. Thus we are confident of further re-rating and our recent trip reinforced this view. Following the data breach at SKT, near term results are likely to favour KT and LG Uplus. KT remains our preferred pick and is one of our top picks in GEM Telcos.

Bouygues (Buy, TP: €55, +47%) Bouygues Telecom CFO meeting: Pricing, ...

We met Bouygues Telecom CFO, Christian Lecoq in Paris, and provide feedback in this report. We are Buyers of Bouygues due to the strength of the FCF growth to come (telco and non-telco), and the possible Telco M&A upside. In addition, we think that the fibre JVs provide hidden value not fully appreciated by the market. We lift our target to €55 as we now incorporate these into our SOP.

UCB - Bimzelx Consensus for 2025 Too Low

We are 28% above cons. US Bimzelx sales for H125 with Bimzelx sales momentum being the most important factor for the UCB investment thesis. Unlike the early days for US obesity, this is one of the most complex dynamics we have contended with when forecasting sales. There are multiple unknowns that we have sought to model (net price per scrip, net avg. price by indication, 2024 volume, volume growth by payer & incremental discounts to unlock that volume growth). As a result of our analysis, we in...

Tesla pre-2Q25 deliveries model update

Thai Telcos Q1 25 review: Steady Q1, incoming auction risk likely mod...

Thai telcos had a good run in 2024 and the momentum carried into Q1 2025 with steady service revenue and margin growth. However, weaker inbound tourism figures and the tariff overhang have raised concerns, contributing to the downward revision in GDP forecasts (1.8% to 1.1% in 2025).

Singtel (Buy, S$5.5 from S$4.6, +41%) What will it look like when the...

Following a week-long NDR with Singtel’s CFO, Arthur Lang, and the new CEO of Optus, Stephen Rue, in Europe we revisit forecasts. We came away with the view that the transformation of Singtel remains under-appreciated. Singtel is in a sharp upswing, and we expect the stock to trade above $5 in the next 12 months.

Tesla Cybercab Launch: Our initial take

Tesla 2Q25 preview: another miss on units and weak margins, while robo...

Tesla will report 2Q25 deliveries next week. Please see the link below for our expectations.

Rethinking BEAD 2.0 as States Rethink Their Options

Earlier this month, as expected, Secretary of Commerce Lutnick released new rules for BEAD, requiring all the states to rebid and prioritizing the lowest cost option. Our initial reaction was that the new rules would shift funds from fiber to satellite, a negative for wired providers including CMSCA, CHTR, T, and VZ/FYBR. We still think that but in talking to numerous stakeholders, that magnitude of the shift may be less than we initially thought. In this note we examine two themes that have ...

Micron: the Street gets HBM, but misses the broader rebound and capaci...

Micron reports 3FQ25 on Wednesday. While HBM strength is well understood, the Street is overlooking the broader recovery in DRAM and NAND margins. As a result, we see upside to 2H expectations. Click below to read our view in a single slide.

Swisscom (Neutral, TP: CHF575, +3%) Sunrise (Neutral, TP: CHF38, -13%)...

We recently held investor calls with senior management at Salt (HERE), Swisscom (HERE) and Sunrise. We provide a summary in this report. We are Neutral on all three names, but if domestic conditions are indeed improving, as was suggested, then we would become more positively inclined. In addition, we can see how all three look attractive on a yield relative basis to the now 0% Swiss central Bank rate, that is seemingly heading to negative territory again.

Eutelsat Model update – increase target price to €1.2/ share

We update our Eutelsat numbers to incorporate the €1.35bn equity raise and the new guidance. The equity raise mechanically lifts our target price, partly offset by the weaker operating trends implied by the near-term guidance. (We remain sceptical that the ambitious mid-term guidance is achievable.) Net, our equity price target increases to €1.2/ share (previously €1.0) and we maintain our Sell recommendation.

The most important announcements from Cannes

The 2025 edition of the Cannes Lions Advertising Festival has wrapped up, and as usual, there was a deluge of new announcements from across the digital advertising landscape.

Mobile and broadband pair trades to consider this summer

While we have been intensively focused on such things as a Presidential intervention to prevent a Chapter 11, we admit that our mind occasionally drifts to thoughts of summer. So to help others who may have similar thoughts, we thought, in honor of summer beginning, we should provide our thoughts as to which alcohols pair best with the purchase of the stocks we cover (actually, we just asked ChatGPT and, given its attitude about intellectual property, we have no fears about just cutting and pas...

Updates on VZ in CA and Upcoming SCOTUS Decision on USF

Verizon just filed a response to questions raised by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) related to DEI and the Supreme Court, as early as today but no later than the end of month, will rule on the case challenging the legality of the current framework for the Universal Service Fund (USF). In this quick note, we analyze the VZ filing and the likely outcomes and impacts of the Court ruling.

Eutelsat French bail out agreed, but guidance falls short

Yesterday Eutelsat announced their long-awaited equity raise (€1.35bn, mainly from the French shareholders) and issued new guidance for FY26 (disappointing) and FY29 (dubious). In this Quick Take, we discuss the new shareholder structure, new guidance, and new LEO revenue disclosure.

Orange (Buy, TP: €14.9, +16%) Bouygues (Buy, TP: €53, +39%) Altice Fra...

One of the prominent features of the recent results season for France was a seeming shift in strategy from SFR, as it focused on subs over ARPU.