reports
- Steve Lucas
Q4 DEC'20 S&P - ThE Q4 report for technical analysis & trade strategy
Open - 3360.0, 12th Oct 3493.0 target met..Despite the strong Feb-Mar sell-off, for the 7th quarter in a row signals going into Q3 were bullish. These were confirmed as all our topside targets were met with sentiment posting a 2nd higher quarterly low in a row and a gain of 500 Pts. There is the potential for pullbacks, but these should be temporary and the outlook for Q4 remains bullish and the call is to buy only modestly on the open and then at 3198.0, September’s low with a stop loss at 2880...
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY DEC'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'20 contract - A rising trend of higher monthly lows is positive for sentiment and our bullish forecast for Q3 has been confirmed. However, with sellers returning to the market in September from ahead of 13538.0, the window which has remained open since a weekly close at February’s record high, last week’s signals switched to a bearish bias and the call to stay square on the open and to sell the rally at 13258.0 was moderately successful. Despite closing with an up week, signals for this week...
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY JUN'20 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
Jun'20 contract - Having identified the previous 4 week sell-off, last week’s signals were unusual as they pointed to both buying the dip and to selling the rally. This was the correct interpretation as an initial 500 Pt sell-off attracted buyers, but for the rally to attract sellers on Friday and for sentiment to deteriorate by over 600 Pts from the top. This week’s signals are pointing lower, but any pullback should be temporary, so with a good deal of caution the outlook is negative and the c...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY MAR'20 DAX - Thursday's trade idea and technicals
MAR'20 Contract – Bearish signals on the week have been confirmed with initial losses of over 350 Pts. However, with intraday sentiment oversold and buyers returning to the market on Tuesday from close to 13182.0, the 8th Jan Marabuzo line, yesterday’s call was to stay square on the open and to sell the rally. This was the correct strategy, as initial gains were given up and for sentiment to close little changed on the day. Sellers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and with signal...
- Steve Lucas
Weekly GOLD - This week's technicals and trade idea
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year and the formation of weekly and daily Shooting Stars highlights bullish exhaustion and is negative for sentiment. However, the pullback is probably corrective and temporary, and buyers returned to the market last week. Although gains have so far been modest and are testing 1573.6, a 50% recovery to the losses posted since this year’s top, signals for this week continue to point higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at 1558.0, the 13...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT GOLD - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
A near 60 Pt failed weekly rally to open this year, followed by last week’s failed modest sell-off has left this week’s signals mixed and neutral. Monday’s trading reflected investor caution, as despite posting a 4th higher daily low & high which is positive for sentiment, the market traded mainly sideways in light volume for a little changed close. Buyers have returned to the market in Asia this morning however and with signals pointing higher the outlook for Tuesday is bullish and the call is ...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY Spot Gold - Wednesday's trade idea and technicals
Tuesday’s signals were bearish and pointed to selling the rally at 1548.0. While this was the correct strategy. as initial gains were given up and for a sequence of higher weekly & daily lows to be ended, sentiment traded mainly sideways for only a modest down-day. The sell-off since last weeks near 7 year top at 1611.4 is probably corrective and it is attracting buyers from close to the 13 day average rate. Improving sentiment in Asia has subsequently left a cautiously bullish bias to signals a...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT AUDUSD - Friday's trade idea and technicals
Bearish signals on the week are being confirmed, but with the downside stalling on Wednesday with prices testing their 50 & 100 day average rates, Thursday’s signals pointed to staying square on the open and to either selling the rally or down through the 100 day line. Neither level was met as sentiment traded sideways inside the previous days range for an unchanged close. However, buyers have returned to the market in Asia this morning and with signals improving the outlook for Friday switches ...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY MAR'20 DAX - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
MAR'20 Contract – This week’s signals are bearish, and these are being confirmed with Monday’s initial 226 Pt sell-off. However, buyers have returned to the market from close to December’s 12880.5 base, sentiment recovering by over 250 Pts from the low. The subsequent formation of a daily Hammer is positive and although the rally may be corrective and temporary the outlook for Tuesday remains bullish and the call is to buy modestly on the open and then at 13137.5, today’s low in Asia with a stop...
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY DEC'19 FTSE - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'19 contract - Monthly sentiment has been switching from bullish to bearish since posting a 2019 high in July at 7666.0. Following 5 unchanged weekly closes in a row, a sell-off in the 1st week of December saw those losses completely recovered last week, leaving futures unchanged on the month overall. This highlights the investor indecision which has dominated going into last week’s election, and at this stage trend signals are still not clear. On balance though there is a very cautiously bul...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY DEC'19 FTSE - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
Dec'19 contract - This week’s signals have switched to bearish and these have already been confirmed as our 1st downside target has been met with Monday’s near 100 Pt losses. This is negative, but the worst trading day for sentiment in 2 months, since the 2nd October, has already left intraday sentiment oversold and there is the potential for bounces. These should be temporary and the outlook for Tuesday remains bearish and the call is to sell just modestly on the open and then at 7334.0, Monday...
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY GBPJPY - This week's trade idea and technicals
For the 3rd week in a row sentiment last week has traded sideways and inside the last 4 week range which has also traded inside the 5 week range. October’s 11 Big Fig rally has stalled at the 20 month average rate which is potentially negative, but so far dips have been limited to the 200 day line. Trend signals subsequently remain weak, but for this week there is a cautiously positive bias and the call is to buy on the open and then at 139.46, last week’s low with a stop loss at 138.51, the 200...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT EURJPY - Thursday's call and technicals
This week’s signals have pointed to staying short and selling the rally. Yesterday’s outlook was also bearish but for the 3rd day in a row sentiment has traded mainly sideways for modest losses. Although October’s over 4 Big Fig rally has taken prices above their 50 & 100 day average rates which is positive for sentiment, topside impetus has stalled in November ahead of the 200 day line. Losses into Wednesday’s close have been extended in Asia this morning and with signals continuing to point lo...
- Steve Lucas
WEEKLY DEC'19 DAX - This week's technical analysis & trade strategy
DEC'19 contract - The outlook for Q4 has been to stay long and buy the dip at 12027.0. This view has been confirmed, as in line with weekly signals which have also pointed higher, investors bought the market last week to post a 4th higher weekly low & high in a row but for a gain of only just over 100 Pts. Dip buying has dominated sentiment throughout this year and with no sign yet that this is ending, but with daily sentiment overstretched at 1 ½ year highs and trading towards the record top po...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT NZDUSD - Thursday's call and technicals
For the 4th day in a row sellers have been unable to force a daily close below the 50 day average rate, buyers returning to the market yesterday from close to .6339, a 50% pullback to the gains posted since the last 2 week low and sentiment improving to post a gain of almost ½ Big Fig. Further buying in Asia this morning keeps signals pointing higher and the call is to buy on the open and then at .6388, today’s opening trade in Asia with a stop loss at .6368, the 13 day average rate. Targets are...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY DEC'19 DAX - Tuesday's trade idea and technicals
Dec'19 Contract – Against a background of a bullish forecast for this week, Monday’s trading posted a 3rd higher daily low in a row and a gain of almost 100 Pts. A fresh near 1 ½ year top at 12979.0 has left intraday sentiment overstretched and testing the May 2018 top at 13206.0. Pullbacks must be expected, but these should be temporary and the outlook for Tuesday therefore remains cautiously bullish and the call is to buy just modestly on the open and then at 12884.5, yesterday’s low with a st...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT USDJPY - Thursday's call and technicals
A rising trend of higher daily lows and highs and improving sentiment above the 50 & 100 day average rates have kept this week’s signals pointing higher. Wednesday’s signals were also bullish and these too have been confirmed as the trend was extended, but with prices closing little changed at Tuesday’s 2 ½ month high at 108.90. This loss of momentum has come with prices testing their 200 day line and until this level is clearly broken the outlook for Thursday remains just cautiously bullish and...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT USDJPY - Tuesday's call and technicals
A rising trend of higher daily lows and highs and improving sentiment above the 50 & 100 day average rates have kept this week’s signals pointing higher. However, with weekly sentiment alternating between bullish and bearish for 4 weeks in a row and with prices trading towards the 200 day line the call is a cautious one. Monday saw bullish momentum stall though with prices trading sideways inside Friday’s up-day for a little changed close. There is no sell signal, but the loss of momentum has le...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT USDJPY - Tuesday's call and technicals
Despite ending a sequence of higher weekly lows, last week’s buying from close to the 50 day average rate has left this week’s signals pointing cautiously higher. While Monday posted a 4th higher daily low in a row gains have so far been limited. Intraday signals are subsequently not strong, but in the absence of a bearish reversal pattern the outlook for Tuesday remains cautiously bullish and the call is to buy on the open and then at 108.03, today’s Asia low with a stop loss at 107.65, Friday’...
- Steve Lucas
DAILY SPOT EURJPY - Friday's trade idea and technicals
Bearish signals on the week and in each of the previous 3 days had been confirmed, but with downside momentum slowing with prices testing 117.45, a 62% pullback to the entire September gains, Thursday’s signals were more cautious and neutral. These were confirmed as sentiment traded sideways inside the specified range for a little changed close. Although signals are little changed, the absence of a bounce reverts Friday’s outlook to cautiously bearish and the call is to sell on the open and then...
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