reports
- Thach Lam Do
REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY 2024: ACCUMULATION TO BREAK OUT
Support factors for the real estate market (decreasing interest rates, promotional programs from developers and infrastructure development) have started to show effectiveness from the last quarter of 2023 for projects launch sales event, especially in tier-I cities(Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City) with high absorption rates. We think that these markets will continue to attract the attention of real estate investors in the coming time. Therefore, we like companies with land banks concentrated in tier-I c...
- Phuong Nguyen
- An Nguyen
VNM – Stock market prices has decreased to attractive levels
Vinamilk set 2024 business targets with revenue and net profit of VND 63,163 bn (or USD 2,527 mn) and VND 9,376 bn (USD 375 mn), respectively. We interpret that this is a conservative plan, in the pillars of (1) successful outcomes of VNM's strategic initiative; (2) advantage of below-year ago raw milk powder costs; and (3) VNM’s history of high completion rate for its annual business targets 2024 Net sales and NPAT-MI is predicted to be VND 63,065 bn (or USD 2,523 mn; +4.5% YoY) and VND 9,46...
- Phuong Nguyen
- Chinh Nguyen
MBB - Credit cost maintained at high level
In Q1/2024, credit growth reached 0.39% YTD, with customer loans up 0.7% YTD and corporate bond decreasing 4.4% YTD. Cost of funding (annualized) and asset yield (annualized) continued to decelerate in Q1, decreasing by 54 bps and 72 bps respectively, leading to NIM (annualized) dropping 26 bps compared to Q4/2023 to 4.04%. Consequently, net interest income declined by 11% YoY. Non-interest income sources grew 73.5%, offsetting the decline in interest income, resulting in total operating inco...
- Hien Le
SEAFOOD INDUSTRY 2024 : IN RECOVERY PHASE
In 2024, we expect the seafood industry to recover due to increased consumption demand, driven by the low base in 2023 and the global economic recovery. The Pangasius industry is expectedto recover early in the US market, while the shrimp industry is anticipated to recover earlier in the Japanese market than in other markets.The increase in stock prices since the beginning of the year reflects a strong recovery, as the export value in the first two months increased by 28% year on year. In terms ...
- Phuong Nguyen
Short of breath
The current weakening signals may continue to put pressure on the market in the near future, and the risk of adjustment remains present. However, temporarily the market will receive support from the range of 1,176 – 1,182 points and there will be fluctuations to explore supply and demand in the near future
- Luan Pham
- Phuong Nguyen
Flourishes
The market continued its recovery following support from the 1,248 point level in the previous session and surpassed the MA(20). It is expected that the market will find support around the 1,268 point level and explore the range of 1,268 to 1,290 points before any specific signals emerge.
- Ngan Le
Oil and Gas Industry - Anticipating a New Cycle in 2024
Amid tightening supply and rising demand, most forecasts expect Brent oil prices to hover around USD 83/barrel, with no signs of cooling off in 2024. This environment of elevated oil prices is expected to support the upward trend of oilfield service costs and revive exploration activities. At the same time, the focus of Vietnam's oil and gas sector in the 2024-2026 period will be on the B-O Mon block series of projects, which will create additional employment opportunities for upstream oil com...
- Hung Nguyen
Automobiles Industry 2024 - APRIL SHOWERS BRING MAY FLOWERS
Following a year marked by significant sales declines, the domestic automotive market is set to rebound the growth in 2024. It is fueled by the recovery the economic and favorable interest rateenvironment. Car dealers’ stock price underperformed the VNIndex in 2023 due to the sector’s poor business results. In 2024, given the expectation of macro recovery, we anticipate that sector’searnings results will gradually back to the growth phase from 2024, making its relative valuation becomes attracti...
- An Nguyen
- Hung Nguyen
Retail Industry 2024 - AS BAMBOOS GROW OLD, YOUNG SHOOTS SPRING UP
We anticipate that the overall picture of Vietnam retail will flourishes in H2-2024, following the economic recovery. Moreover, we believe that the level of growth will be vary across subsectors of the retail industry, including grocery, ICT/CE, pharmacy and specialty (jewelry) retail. Besides, we think the plan of “cost optimization strategies” mentioned by Vietnam retailers in 2024 will also be a highlight of the industry. In our viewpoint, the drivers of Vietnam retailers’ performance in 202...
- Hung Nguyen
Spare Parts Industry 2024 - PREPARING TO RIDE THE WAVE OF MANUFACTURI...
In 2024, we expect demand for truck and bus replacement (TBR) tires will surge, correlating with heightened road transportation of goods. This upturn is driven by increased activity inindustrial manufacturing and import-export sectors. Furthermore, Vietnamese TBR tire exports are poised for growth in the US market, as Thailand, the current leading tire exporter to theUS, faces impending anti-dumping duties imposed from Q2-2024. However, the rapid surge in share price based on those prospects, ha...
- Phuong Nguyen
Balanced effort
The market continued to be supported as it retreated to the 1,248 level and showed signs of recovery. However, the recovery signal remains inconclusive. It is expected that the market will continue to explore supply and demand dynamics in the next trading session before clearer signals emerge.
- Hoai Trinh
Textile & garment sector – Gradual recovery ahead
We believe that (1) the demand for textile products has not yet strongly rebounded globally, and (2) high inventory levels in the US market will cause the recovery of the Vietnamese textile & garment sector to slow down in the first half of 2024 In the first three months of 2024, Vietnam's textile export turnover has shown signs of recovery from the low base of 2023, reaching USD 7.8 bn (+9.0% YoY). Specifically, in March, export growth was recorded at 1.4% YoY, a slowdown compared to the 13....
- Quan Cao
- Quan Cao
Pharmaceutical industry – Step into the phase of stable growth
According to IQVIA, the total pharmaceutical market size in Vietnam reached USD 8.5 billion (+6% YoY), with revenue from the ETC and OTC channels reached USD 3.4 billion (+18% YoY) and USD 5.1 billion (-1% YoY), respectively. In a favorable policy environment, we believe that the ETC channel will continue to be the primary growth driver for the pharmaceutical industry in 2024. The OTC channel is expected to experience stable growth in line with the overall industry growth rate. In the long t...
- Hung Le
PHR – The Land Conversion Story Becomes Increasingly Clear
The proposed master plan for Binh Duong province reveals a clearer path for land conversion, opening up numerous opportunities to realize the value of PHR's rubber land for future socio-economic development projects. According to estimates, the total area of land PHR can convert by 2030 is up to 3,972 ha. In our baseline scenario, we project that PHR's revenue and net income for the year 2024 will reach VND 1,623 billion (USD 66 million) and VND 694 billion (USD 28 million) respectively, mark...
- Phuong Nguyen
Rebound
The market continues to receive support from the 1,247 area and recovers. The temporary recovery is technical in nature to re-test the supply in the area near MA(20), area 1,270 points. It is expected that the supply will increase again and put pressure on the market as the market moves closer to this area.
- Phuong Nguyen
Stepback
The market continued to weaken and stopped at the 1,250 level with unsuccessful attempts to recover during the session. It is expected that the exploratory state will continue in the next trading session thanks to the support from the 1,245 - 1,250 point area. However, it should be noted that market risks are on the rise.
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