reports
- Tung Do
CTG - Solid Growth Outlook as Provisioning Pressures Subside
We have updated our valuation for the shares of Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (HSX: CTG) with a 12-month target price of VND 46,200, equivalent to a projected 2025 P/B ratio of 1.4x. • Easing Credit Cost Pressures in the Medium Term. Since 2018, CTG has been addressing legacy non-performing loans (NPLs) from prior cycles and those arising from the Covid-19 pandemic, amidst fluctuating interest rates. Measures include settling debts with the Vietnam Asset Management ...
- Phuong Nguyen
BREAKING ABOVE 1,300 POINTS
Despite the psychological resistance threshold of 1,300 points, the market continued its upward trend and surpassed this psychological threshold. Liquidity increased compared to the previous session, indicating that cash flow continues to create supportive momentum for the market and absorb profit-taking supply, especially with relatively strong net buying activity from foreign investors. The signal of moving past the 1,300 point threshold shows that investor sentiment is still positive and ma...
- Chinh Nguyen
Comparison of domestic natural gas and LNG fuel sources
• According to the revised Power Plan VIII, the electricity demand of the whole system is expected to reach 500 billion kWh by 2030 (+7%/year), requiring an increase in installed capacity of 12%/year. Gas power increased the most (+21%/year), mainly thanks to projects using LNG instead of domestic gas. • Domestic gas production is declining due to old wells, causing supply to be limited in the short term. In contrast, imported LNG is highly flexible, helping to diversify the supply. However, t...
- My Tran
MACRO UPDATE MAY 2025: SENTIMENT SHOWS SHORT-TERM IMPROVEMENT
In the context of lingering uncertainty over tariff negotiations, Vietnam’s manufacturing PMI has shown early signs of a more pessimistic outlook for future orders. In the short term, most manufacturing firms are seeking to capitalize on the 90-day tariff suspension window to accelerate production and exports. As such, growth data for the manufacturing and export sectors in April 2025—and potentially throughout Q2—are unlikely to fully reflect the impact of upcoming trade policies. Vietnam’s A...
- Phuong Nguyen
MOVING FORWARD
The market continued its upward trend after a hesitant session around the 1,270 point area. Liquidity increased compared to the previous session, indicating that cash flow continues to create supportive momentum for the market and absorb profit-taking supply. The signal of moving past the 1,263 – 1,273 point area, a convergence area of the moving averages, may help the market extend its upward phase and head towards the 1,300 point resistance area in the near future. It is expected that this...
- Thach Lam Do
SIP – Conservative targets for the year ahead
• In 1Q2025, SIP recorded positive result, with revenue and gross profit of VND 1.94 tn (USD 77.6mn, +6% YoY, -6%QoQ) and VND 320bn (USD 12.8mn, +17%YoY,+12%QoQ), respectively. Electricity and water distribution for industrial parks (IPs) continues to be the main revenue-generating sector for SIP, with revenue and gross profit to reach VND 1.6 trillion (USD64mn, +7%YoY) and VND 133 billion (USD 5.3mn, +9%YoY), respectively. In terms of sales, the company continued to actively seek leasing client...
- Phuong Nguyen
CONTENTION
The market's upward momentum slowed down at the 1,275 point area and saw a slight correction. Liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, indicating that cash flow is temporarily cautious after the market's relatively rapid upward movement; however, current supply pressure is also not creating significant pressure on the market. The current cooling down movement is normal activity after the market rapidly rose to the convergence area of the moving averages, the 1,263 – 1,273 point ar...
- Toan Vo
China’s economy faces mounting growth challenges, prompting decisive p...
• China’s growth has remained heavily reliant on early-stage export momentum, with downside risks becoming more apparent from Q2 onward. • A comprehensive stimulus package has been deployed, aiming to revive the underlying growth engine
- Thach Lam Do
HPG - The Steel Titan Stirs
We have made an initial valuation for HPG stock. In our conservative view, the current share price does not fully reflect the long-term growth prospects and business position. We estimate the fair value at VND 33,800, equivalent to a projected P/B of 1.6x in 2025. • Vietnam's largest steel manufacturer: o Scale advantage: HPG is one of the pioneering enterprises in Vietnam to invest in steel production plants (using BOF technology). This enables HPG to promptly meet large orders from construct...
- Hung Le
- Lam Nguyen
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK ON EARNINGS SEASON: DON'T LOSE SIGHT OF THE GOAL
The investment picture is changing rapidly and as we enter the new quarter, equity market investors continue to face numerous uncertainties surrounding the potential impact of the US administration's tariff policy on the global economic outlook. Investor concerns over "what kind of tariff deal will Vietnam secure in the negotiations?" keep market in a volatility mode a at least until an agreement is reached. As an economy heavily dependent on international trade, particularly Vietnam's reliance...
- Phuong Nguyen
EQUILIBRIUM STATE
The market continued its hesitant state above the 1,220 point support area with a Star candlestick pattern. Liquidity decreased slightly compared to the previous session, indicating that both supply and demand cooled down and were hesitant ahead of the holiday. Although the movement was quite subdued, the market generally still found support when pulling back near the 1,220 point area. This shows that the market is creating a balanced price area and probing supply and demand before clearer sig...
- Phuong Nguyen
EQUILIBRIUM STATE
The market continued its hesitant state above the 1,220 point support area with a Star candlestick pattern. Liquidity decreased slightly compared to the previous session, indicating that both supply and demand cooled down and were hesitant ahead of the holiday. Although the movement was quite subdued, the market generally still found support when pulling back near the 1,220 point area. This shows that the market is creating a balanced price area and probing supply and demand before clearer sig...
- Phuong Nguyen
HESITATION
The market showed hesitant movement and a slight correction after moving past the MA(20) line. Liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, indicating that both supply and demand cooled down and were hesitant ahead of the holiday. Although the movement was quite subdued and somewhat weaker, the market still found support when pulling back near the 1,220 point area, which is also the MA(20) line. This shows that the market is creating a balanced price area and probing supply and demand...
- Thach Lam Do
NKG – Transition from export to domestic market
• In 1Q2025, NKG reported revenue of VND 4,090 billion (-23% YoY, +5% QoQ), with coated steel consumption volume estimated at 205,000 tons (-10% YoY, +4% QoQ). The company saw a slight recovery in production volume by focusing on the domestic market, achieving a domestic sales volume of 109,000 tons (+38% QoQ). The export market’s share decreased to approximately 47% of total consumption. The gross profit margin remained stable at 6.4% (compared to 6.7% in Q4/2024), with gross profit reaching VN...
- Phuong Nguyen
CHALLENGING THE MA(20) AREA
The market continued to find support and gradually trended upwards after the supportive Dragonfly Doji candlestick signal on April 22, 2025. Liquidity increased slightly compared to the previous session, indicating that cash flow is still maintaining its ability to support the market and supply is not yet creating significant pressure on the market. The possibility of contention and volatility may arise as the market is in the MA(20) area, around the 1,227 point area. However, the market is ma...
- Phuong Nguyen
MAINTAINING THE GAINS
The market found support on pullbacks and continued its recovery trend after the supportive Dragonfly Doji candlestick signal on April 22, 2025. Liquidity decreased compared to the previous session, indicating that supply is easing and cash flow is still maintaining its ability to support the market. The possibility of contention and volatility may arise as the market is near the MA(20) area, the 1,230 point area. However, the recovery movement in the last 2 sessions is gradually confirming th...
- My Tran
MONETARY MARKET UPDATE APRIL 2025: IMPACT OF THE TARIFF SHOCK ON CREDI...
The SBV continued net injection via the OMO channel in April 2025, with a net injection of VND 16.8 trillion (as of April 24, 2025). Demand for longer-term loans in the open market was more evident during the month. The interbank market remained relatively stable and did not react significantly to the tariff shock announced by the Trump administration on April 2. The previous downtrend in deposit rates has paused. As of April 23, 2025, the average 12-month deposit rate had decreased by about 0...
- Toan Vo
The Unsustainable Trajectory of U.S. Public Debt
• The U.S. Budget deficit soars in 2024 driven by rising government spending needs. • DOGE's cost-cutting efforts do not significantly reduce the federal budget deficit in 2025. • U.S. public debt is forecasted to reach a record high over the next 30 years.
- Phuong Nguyen
STRONG VOLATILITY
The market experienced a sharp decline during the trading session but found support at the 1,140 point area and rebounded, forming a Dragonfly Doji candlestick. Liquidity increased sharply compared to the previous session, indicating that bargain-hunting cash flow was active and absorbed supply when the market fell deeply. The Dragonfly Doji candlestick is helping the market regain balance after the deep correction. Lingering selling pressure may still appear in the next trading session, but i...
- Hien Le
DCM - The thrust from selling price is not strong enough
We value DCM shares using two methods: discounted cash flow (DCF) and sum of the parts (SoTP), with equal weighting of 50:50. The results indicate that DCM's long-term fair price is 34,500 VND/share, which corresponds to the projected P/E ratios of 12.6x for 2025 and 13.1x for 2026. By adding a cash dividend of 2,000 VND/share, the total expected profit is set to reach 17%. • DCM is the second largest urea fertilizer company in Vietnam, with an average market share of 26-30% nationwide and domi...
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