SANTA MONICA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--
ALG, the industry benchmark for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects total new vehicle sales, including fleet deliveries, will reach 1,440,200 units in April, down 3.9 percent from a year ago and nearly flat on a selling day adjusted basis at -0.2 percent.
This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 17.1 million units for the month, down 1.9 percent from a 17.4 million-unit SAAR a year ago. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks are expected to decline 4.8 percent with 1,190,657 units and down on a selling day adjusted basis at -1.2 percent.
“Despite higher incentives and nearly flat sales (on a daily sales rate basis), there is positivity in the April sales numbers,” said Eric Lyman, chief industry analyst for ALG. “Historical ALG data indicate Easter weekend sales are typically 2 percent lower than average, putting April 2017 at a disadvantage since the holiday fell in March last year. Also, fleet deliveries continue to drop on a year over year basis, indicating that retail demand is still driving sales in 2017.”
Incentive spending by automakers may average an estimated $3,465 per vehicle in April, up 13.9 percent from a year ago, and down 2.5 percent from March 2017.
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment is at 98.0 this month up from 96.9 in March, which indicates continued confidence in the health of the U.S. economy. Other key factors for positive economic conditions include the March unemployment rate, which came in at 4.5 percent, combined with a favorable average gas price of $2.40 recorded for this current week.
Other key findings for April:
- Registration mix is expected to be 82.7 percent retail sales and 17.3 percent fleet versus 83.5 percent retail and 16.5 percent fleet last April.
- Total used auto sales, including franchise and independent dealerships and private-party transactions, may reach 3,318,537, down 0.8 percent from April 2016.
Forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by volume:
Total Unit Sales
|
Manufacturer |
April 2017 Forecast |
April 2016 |
% Change vs. April 2016 |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
||||||||||||||
| BMW | 29,500 | 29,826 | -1.1 | % | 2.7 | % | ||||||||||||
| Daimler | 32,500 | 32,291 | 0.6 | % | 4.5 | % | ||||||||||||
| FCA | 176,000 | 192,685 | -8.7 | % | -5.1 | % | ||||||||||||
| Ford | 212,000 | 229,739 | -7.7 | % | -4.2 | % | ||||||||||||
| GM | 260,000 | 259,557 | 0.2 | % | 4.0 | % | ||||||||||||
| Honda | 145,000 | 148,829 | -2.6 | % | 1.2 | % | ||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 62,000 | 62,213 | -0.3 | % | 3.5 | % | ||||||||||||
| Kia | 49,000 | 56,508 | -13.3 | % | -10.0 | % | ||||||||||||
| Nissan | 122,000 | 123,861 | -1.5 | % | 2.3 | % | ||||||||||||
| Subaru | 52,500 | 50,380 | 4.2 | % | 8.2 | % | ||||||||||||
| Toyota | 197,000 | 211,125 | -6.7 | % | -3.1 | % | ||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 49,500 | 50,522 | -2.0 | % | 1.7 | % | ||||||||||||
|
Industry |
1,440,200 |
1,498,965 |
-3.9 |
% |
-0.2 |
% |
||||||||||||
Total Market Share
|
Manufacturer |
April 2017 Forecast |
April 2016 | March 2017 | ||||||||||||
| BMW | 2.0 | % | 2.0 | % | 2.3 | % | |||||||||
| Daimler | 2.3 | % | 2.2 | % | 2.1 | % | |||||||||
| FCA | 12.2 | % | 12.9 | % | 12.3 | % | |||||||||
| Ford | 14.7 | % | 15.3 | % | 15.1 | % | |||||||||
| GM | 18.1 | % | 17.3 | % | 16.5 | % | |||||||||
| Honda | 10.1 | % | 9.9 | % | 8.8 | % | |||||||||
| Hyundai | 4.3 | % | 4.2 | % | 4.3 | % | |||||||||
| Kia | 3.4 | % | 3.8 | % | 3.2 | % | |||||||||
| Nissan | 8.5 | % | 8.3 | % | 10.9 | % | |||||||||
| Subaru | 3.6 | % | 3.4 | % | 3.5 | % | |||||||||
| Toyota | 13.7 | % | 14.1 | % | 13.8 | % | |||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 3.4 | % | 3.4 | % | 3.3 | % | |||||||||
Retail Unit Sales
|
Manufacturer |
April 2017 Forecast |
April 2016 |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
||||||||||||||
| BMW | 28,560 | 29,059 | -1.7 | % | 2.1 | % | ||||||||||||
| Daimler | 30,392 | 30,138 | 0.8 | % | 4.7 | % | ||||||||||||
| FCA | 146,000 | 153,150 | -4.7 | % | -1.0 | % | ||||||||||||
| Ford | 142,000 | 167,744 | -15.3 | % | -12.1 | % | ||||||||||||
| GM | 200,000 | 204,178 | -2.0 | % | 1.7 | % | ||||||||||||
| Honda | 143,609 | 146,237 | -1.8 | % | 2.0 | % | ||||||||||||
| Hyundai | 50,607 | 52,997 | -4.5 | % | -0.8 | % | ||||||||||||
| Kia | 40,205 | 46,894 | -14.3 | % | -11.0 | % | ||||||||||||
| Nissan | 91,499 | 94,389 | -3.1 | % | 0.7 | % | ||||||||||||
| Subaru | 49,245 | 47,666 | 3.3 | % | 7.3 | % | ||||||||||||
| Toyota | 174,203 | 184,208 | -5.4 | % | -1.8 | % | ||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | 46,648 | 47,608 | -2.0 | % | 1.8 | % | ||||||||||||
|
Industry |
1,190,657 |
1,251,071 |
-4.8 |
% |
-1.2 |
% |
||||||||||||
Incentive Spending
| Manufacturer |
Incentive per Unit Apr 2017 Forecast |
Incentive per Unit Apr 2016 |
Incentive per Unit Mar 2017 |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Apr 2016 |
Incentive per Unit % Change vs. Mar 2017 |
Total Spending Apr 2017 Forecast |
||||||||||||||||||||||||
| BMW | $ | 4,451 | $ | 5,290 | $ | 4,227 | -15.9 | % | 5.3 | % | $ | 130,850,555 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Daimler | $ | 4,670 | $ | 4,000 | $ | 4,767 | 16.8 | % | -2.0 | % | $ | 151,787,792 | ||||||||||||||||||
| FCA | $ | 4,482 | $ | 3,982 | $ | 4,583 | 12.6 | % | -2.2 | % | $ | 779,906,193 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Ford | $ | 3,775 | $ | 3,514 | $ | 3,809 | 7.4 | % | -0.9 | % | $ | 800,201,090 | ||||||||||||||||||
| GM | $ | 4,717 | $ | 4,012 | $ | 4,850 | 17.6 | % | -2.7 | % | $ | 1,226,424,730 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Honda | $ | 1,863 | $ | 1,604 | $ | 1,853 | 16.2 | % | 0.6 | % | $ | 270,175,905 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Hyundai | $ | 2,580 | $ | 2,008 | $ | 2,591 | 28.5 | % | -0.4 | % | $ | 159,933,159 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Kia | $ | 2,978 | $ | 2,722 | $ | 3,004 | 9.4 | % | -0.9 | % | $ | 145,923,492 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Nissan | $ | 3,895 | $ | 3,232 | $ | 4,036 | 20.5 | % | -3.5 | % | $ | 475,183,155 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Subaru | $ | 864 | $ | 595 | $ | 907 | 45.2 | % | -4.8 | % | $ | 45,349,377 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Toyota | $ | 2,311 | $ | 1,996 | $ | 2,430 | 15.8 | % | -4.9 | % | $ | 455,310,295 | ||||||||||||||||||
| Volkswagen Group | $ | 3,922 | $ | 3,443 | $ | 3,995 | 13.9 | % | -1.8 | % | $ | 193,330,272 | ||||||||||||||||||
|
Industry |
$ |
3,465 |
$ |
3,041 |
$ |
3,556 |
13.9 |
% |
-2.5 |
% |
$ |
4,968,169,020 |
||||||||||||||||||
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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