Pakistan Fertilizer: Slow Rabi taints CY18 offtake
Cumulative CY18 fertilizer offtake across all nutrients stood at 9.38mn tonnes (-5%YoY) constituted by 5.81mn tonnes of urea (-1%YoY), 1.76mn tonnes of DAP (-6%YoY), 0.60mn tonnes of CAN (-17%YoY) and 0.45mn tonnes of NP (-34%YoY)
Domestic urea production for Dec’18 stood at 511.9k tonnes (-3%MoM/+6%YoY), where market share for sales clocked in at 37%/30%/15%/9% for FFC/EFERT/FATIMA/FFBL moving -490/+175/+8/+78bpsMoM.
10-30% increase CYTD in nutrient prices accompanied by slower harvesting and availability issues have pulled nutrient offtake during Rabi 18-19 (Oct-Dec) by 7%YoY, while production slowed to keep inventory levels manageable (Dec'18 inventory for Urea/DAP/CAN/NP, make up 0.5/8.8/2.5/1.2x monthly average offtake)
Growth in sales is likely going to be a factor of extended late seasons buying, catalyzed by pricing concessions delivered through GIDC rationalization, where any GIDC rationalization for fertilizer manufacturers will be passed on to end-consumers, with FFBL stands to benefit the most (where DAP pricing depends on international factors).
AKD Research
EnGro Corp is an investment holding company. Co. is engaged in the manufacturing and selling of cement. Through its subsidiaries and associates, Co. is also engaged in the marketing and distribution of office automation products; manufacturing and sale of vermiculite; provision of liaison and coordination services to related companies; investment trading; retrofitting and restoration works to buildings and construction; and manufacture and sale of readymixed concrete.
AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.
AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.
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