EPS upgrade (2024: +1.5%, 2025: +7.0%) (Swissquote Group Holding)
EPS CHANGECHANGE IN EPS
2024 : CHF 20.4 vs 20.1 +1.55%
2025 : CHF 20.5 vs 19.1 +7.01%
We updated our EPS projections following Swissquote’s H1 24 publication and our market scenario for 2024-25.
We left our 2024 EPS projections nearly unchanged (+2%) as we see net revenue 4% lower than anticipated, due to slightly lower volatility than anticipated, leading to a smaller average number of transactions per account, as well as lower interest income due to interest rate declines and lower crypto assets income due to lower valuations, all partly offset by higher trading and eforex income (backed by higher H1 results). This revenue decline is more than offset by lower opex, reflecting lower other opex in line with trends observed in H1. This results in a CHF356m pre-tax result, 1% above previous estimates and far above the 2024 guidance (CHF320m).
We have upgraded our 2025 EPS estimates (+7%) on the back of a slight net revenue downgrade (-1%) caused by lower eforex income and fee income due to lower forecasted market volatility and client activity, nearly fully offset by much higher crypto assets income as we see a bullish case for bitcoin in 2025 (USD100k EOY target). Interest income is projected to be stable, as rate declines should be met with clients’ higher cash deposits. The upgrade lies actually on the lower cost projections (-9%) due mainly to lower other opex. The pre-tax result is forecast to be CHF358m (vs CHF335m previously), above the group’s 2025 guidance (CHF350m).
Swissquote Group Holding is engaged in the provision of Online Financial Services. Co. provides online securities trading services (including custody services) and quantitative asset management services (ePrivate Banking among others) to self-directed private investors, independent asset managers, investment funds, and third party financial institutions. Co. provides access to over-the-counter FX markets through in-house technology platform to retail customers, money managers, and third-party financial institutions. In addition, Co. operates an online bank that accepts deposits in the form of current accounts and saving accounts from its customers.
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