reports
- Christian Auzanneau
Merger Project with MHM
Merger Project with MHM M&A /CORP. ACTION MyHotelMatch, a company in the Ott galaxy, announces a project to merge with Courbet Heritage. FACT MHM may purchase Courbet Heritage. Regulatory approval is necessary. ANALYSIS Governance The Ott family almost entirely owns Courbet Heritage, with the Ott family owning less than 30% of MHM. Given Courbet Heritage’s valuation advantage, if the transaction were fully compensated with new MHM shares, the Ott family’s stake in NewMHM would exceed 30...
- Saïma Hussain
Q3-24: Navigating 2024 with a thoughtful investment approach
Q3-24: Navigating 2024 with a thoughtful investment approach EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES IDI ended Q3 2024 with minimal activity on the investment front. Including its recent minority stake in TTK, a liquid leak detection specialist, IDI completed only three transactions YTD, compared to 14 in the same period last year. Though IDI’s net income is likely to suffer accordingly, this underlines IDI’s savvy investment approach in persistently uncertain market conditions. With substantial investment ca...
- Loco Douza
Q3 24: Volumes appear to have passed the trough
Q3 24: Volumes appear to have passed the trough EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Cementir Holding’s 9M results showed positive volume growth, driven by strong demand in Turkey, which offset the decline in some other regions. Sales and EBITDA declined due to lower volumes in some regions and a negative one-off impact. The company secured an EU grant for a CCS project in Denmark to reduce CO2 emissions. Based on these positive results, we have raised our FY24 EBITDA estimates and maintain a positive outl...
- Loco Douza
EPS upgrade (2024: +8.8%, 2025: +12.5%) (Cementir Holding)
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € 1.18 vs 1.08 +8.76% 2025 : € 1.18 vs 1.05 +12.5% We have raised our EBITDA estimates, as we observe signs of a volume improvement. Volumes appear to have passed the trough, and we believe the company’s price stability and cost management will help improve margins, positively impacting our EPS. CHANGE IN DCF € 15.6 vs 14.3 +9.51% We have revised our Sales and EBITDA estimates for the coming years as we believe that the company will maintain its EBITDA margin...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Decent Q3 results
Decent Q3 results EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt released a rather good Q3 trading update, more than doubling its top line and posting a significant improvement in gross margins, despite being affected by a more unfavourable product mix. The outlook remains unchanged for 2024 and 2025, despite the desire to reduce the distribution share in the revenue mix going forward, marking confidence in the new activities. We thus reiterate our positive stance on the stock. FACT Sales grew by 139% c...
- Fabrice Farigoule
H1 24: not yet meaningful (Crossject)
H1 24: not yet meaningful EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.24) vs (0.12) ns 2025 : € 0.02 vs 0.02 We have fine-tuned our forecasts for the current year. This plays a very minor role for Crossject since the story is that of the future market launches of the company’s NTEs (New Therapeutic Entities) as from FY25 and has no impact on our valuation. For the sake of detailing, the main difference with our previous FY24e EPS lies in a likely lower level of capitalised production than we expec...
- Saïma Hussain
Nothing to rattle IDI
Nothing to rattle IDI EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES H1 24 may have been a flat start to the year for IDI, and yet the HoldCo has once again proved its resilience in a persistently challenging environment, with NAV per share remaining constant after taking the dividend into account. The decline in the number of transactions to two in the first half is not a cause for concern, given that the group has carried out more than 36 deals over the past two years. The company ended the half-year with a soli...
- Fabrice Farigoule
H1 24: no real surprise, but a glimpse of disappointment
H1 24: no real surprise, but a glimpse of disappointment EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES The company released its H1 24 numbers and reminded the milestones achieved over the past few months. Even if we still believe in the case, we are a bit perplexed about the ability of the group to have its products reach the market without another financing round. We also found that management shows a degree cautiousness with respect to the timing of such a launch. Whether this is a just a way to make sure not to ...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Drone Volt unveiled promising H1 24 results
Drone Volt unveiled promising H1 24 results EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt published its complete H1 24 results yesterday, which were revised downwards on the top line and gross margin levels. Nonetheless, the EBITDA margin trend seems to be reversing towards positive territory, and the group now openly aims to reach it in 2025. This is a strong commitment that could change the equity story if the management manages to deliver. FACT Sales were slightly revised downwards to €23.4m (€23.6...
- Sylvain Perret
EPS upgrade (2024: +1.5%, 2025: +7.0%) (Swissquote Group Holding)
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : CHF 20.4 vs 20.1 +1.55% 2025 : CHF 20.5 vs 19.1 +7.01% We updated our EPS projections following Swissquote’s H1 24 publication and our market scenario for 2024-25. We left our 2024 EPS projections nearly unchanged (+2%) as we see net revenue 4% lower than anticipated, due to slightly lower volatility than anticipated, leading to a smaller average number of transactions per account, as well as lower interest income due to interest rate declines and lower cryp...
- Saïma Hussain
Solid first half with robust cash generation
Solid first half with robust cash generation EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Chargeurs is confirming its Q1 24 trend continues into H1 24, with the top line and profitability exceeding expectations, bolstered by all the group’s core activities. Novacel (formerly Chargeurs Advanced Materials), in particular, saw its operating margin doubling, thereby consolidating its recovery. Improved profitability together with better working capital management led to a substantial accretion in OCF, enabling the gro...
- Christian Auzanneau
Preliminary update (COURBET)
Preliminary update OPINION CHANGE CHANGE IN OPINION Add vs Sell Pending further details on the works programme, financing, timetable and other information, we are updating our model to take into account: i/ the integration of the Hotel Mozart in Prague and the Christ Roi in Lourdes, and ii/ the accretion resulting from the €20m capital increase (€9m immediate in 2024 and deferred via ORA for the balance). Given COURBET AM's expectations in terms of future value creation, our recommendation is...
- Christian Auzanneau
Triple the NAV by 2030
Triple the NAV by 2030 EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES The development of COURBET AM’s portfolio continues at a steady pace. The OTT Group is supporting the company via a global capital increase (immediate and deferred) of €20m. FACT The AGM of June 28, 2024 made it possible to validate the accounts closed on June 30, 2023 COURBET S.A. becomes COURBET ASSET MANAGEMENT The fiscal year is extended from June 30, 2024 to December 31, 2024, i.e. an exceptional fiscal year of 18 months The 2030 strategi...
- Sylvain Perret
H1-24: strong results helped by crypto, inflows and market effect
H1-24: strong results helped by crypto, inflows and market effect EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Swissquote posted good results with strong top-line growth being contributed by higher crypto income, further helped by increased client activity and resilient NII. Cost-discipline was also very tight, helping the pre-tax result beat our estimates. The growth levers remain intact with new money being slightly above the guided pace and client assets guided to be much higher than initially projected by the ...
- Loco Douza
H1 24: the recovery is yet to come
H1 24: the recovery is yet to come EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Cementir Holding’s H1 results showed a positive performance in group volumes, largely driven by strong demand in Turkey. However, due to continued low volumes in many other markets, the company has revised down its sales expectations for FY24. Despite this, a recovery in volumes is anticipated for the second half of the year. FACT Revenue: €811.8m (vs €840.7m in H1 ‘23) EBITDA: €192.7m (vs €200.5m in H1 ‘23) Outlook: Sales at €1.7bn...
- Fabrice Farigoule
We are still believers (Crossject)
We are still believers TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 7.89 vs 11.2 -29.6% We have substantially revisited our model on Crossject, including in particular: 1- new assumptions concerning the timing, volumes and prices for the different NTEs (New Therapeutic Entities) to be launched in FY25-28, which appear less optimistic than previously. 2- the dilution from the latest capital increase (€8m at €1.848 per share), 3- slightly more conservative assumptions regarding the working capital ne...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Lower profitability incorporated (Drone Volt)
Lower profitability incorporated TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN TARGET PRICE € 0.01 vs 0.02 -36.0% Our target price has been reduced due to the peer-based metrics having been impacted by a lower EBITDA forecast for 2024 and the lack of net profits until 2026 vs 2025 previously. Moreover, this lower EBITDA generation has reduced our DCF-derived valuation, further reducing the target price. Finally, we incorporate the new capital increase with an oversubscription thesis resulting in 19% dilution. CH...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
H1 24: Encouraging trajectory
H1 24: Encouraging trajectory EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt has announced its H1 24 sales and gross margin figures, which have come in higher than expected, especially on the top line, thanks to a €12m distribution contract. However, the company has announced a new capital increase to contend with this huge growth phase. We are confident that Drone Volt will achieve its guidance for 2024 and reiterate our Buy recommendation. FACT Sales grew by 49% to €23.6m thanks to a 45% increase in D...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Eurosatory takeways
Eurosatory takeways LATEST ANALYSIS Drone Volt announced that the number of prospects reached around 100 at Eurosatory, a major European Defense exhibition, which is “significantly more” than at previous similar events. 90% of them come from international customers, probably mostly European, which is good news for the geographical expansion of the company and might suggest that the European-built Drone Volt Kobra is finding its market. On top of this, Marc Courcelle met the current Armies Min...
- Fabrice Farigoule
Success of the capital increase
Success of the capital increase FINANCING ISSUE The capital increase announced at the end of April was a success, the group raising its c.€8m target to finance the group until the launch of Zepizure in the US. The stake of its reference shareholder (Gemmes Venture) was unchanged at 24.28% after it subscribed c. 1.06m shares. This shareholder had committed to subscribing for up to 75% of the capital increase. FACT Crossject announced the positive outcome of its planned capital increase. AN...
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