reports
- Egor Sonin
Cementir delivers stable Q1 amid margin pressure
Cementir delivers stable Q1 amid margin pressure EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Cementir Holding’s first quarter of 2025 did not deliver any grand surprises – positive or negative. However, a flat EBITDA hid contrasting Baltic gains and a bout of Turkish weakness, as well as the usual FX complexities. Cash flow resilience must be saluted. FACT Revenue: €368.1m (vs €368.3m in Q1 2024) EBITDA: €66.4m (vs €66.5m in Q1 2024) Profit before tax (PBT): €30.3m (vs €58.7m in Q1 2024) Outlook for the full y...
- Fabrice Farigoule
Back to life?
Back to life? EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES CROSSJECT has provided an update on the EUA filing for Zepizure. Management has confirmed the filing will occur in June 2025, as previously indicated, demonstrating adherence to their timeline. This development is likely to enhance investor confidence, which had recently declined. Consequently, the market has reacted positively, although the successful launch of Zeneo is not yet fully reflected in the share price. Our target price remains unchanged at €6.7...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
EPS cut (2024: from € -0.59 to -0.68, 2025: from € -0.09 to -0.09) (Dr...
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2025 : € (0.09) vs (0.09) ns 2026 : € 0.05 vs 0.06 -16.7% Our EPS for 2024 was impacted by the lower number of shares than expected (20.1m vs 20.5m) as the effective timing of the last capital raising announced in December 2024, came later than expected. Our EPS for 2026 was only marginally changed following the release of the annual report with full figures, which marginally impacted our estimates.
- Christian Auzanneau
Gradual recovery starting in 2025?
Gradual recovery starting in 2025? INITIATION COV. The initiation of coverage allows us to encompass the majority of the French residential development market, including companies such as Nexity, Icade, Bouygues, Vinci, and Eiffage. Additionally, we monitor some non-covered entities like Kaufman & Broad and Bassac. This also enhances our coverage of the retail property sector in France, including Mercialys, Klépierre, URW, Hammerson, and Wereldhave, with the latter two pursuing exit strategies...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
DCF cut by -12.2% (Drone Volt)
DCF CHANGE CHANGE IN DCF € 1.16 vs 1.32 -12.2% We have updated our DCF to include the faster-than-previously-expected decline in the distribution segment. We now forecast a 85% decline to €4.2m over 2025 compared to our previous forecast of a 70% decline to €8.5m. This has affected our EBITDA sequence for 2025 and beyond (c.€100-500k) as we have not changed our growth assumptions going forward, and thus our FCF for these years.
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Q1 '25: A confirmed change in business model
Q1 '25: A confirmed change in business model EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled promising results with a strong gross margin improvement that was not yet enough to compensate for the massive decline in revenue from the distribution segment. The group reiterated its guidance for 2025, which is reachable in our view, thanks to the strong order intake related to defence notably. Despite the recent impressive share price performance related to the broader defence names trend as well as an...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Target cut by -13.7% (Drone Volt)
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.59) 2025 : € (0.09) vs (0.12) ns Our 2025 EPS forecast has benefited from the higher average number of shares in 2025 (+9m to 39m) resulting from the €5m capital raising and the subsequent expected exercise of the share purchase warrants attached to these new shares, thus reducing the loss per share. CHANGE IN NAV € 1.07 vs 1.30 -17.1% Our NAV has been impacted by the c.18m increase in the number of shares to c.53m expected at year-end 2025...
- Fabrice Farigoule
Integrating the FY24 numbers. (Crossject)
Integrating the FY24 numbers. EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.30) vs (0.23) ns 2025 : € 0.00 vs 0.02 ns We have integrated the set of FY24 numbers released yesterday. The FY24 net loss came in higher than our forecast, mainly owing to higher financial expenses (bond issuance to HCM) and a lower tax credit. This does not change our forecasts and view looking forward, based on the launch of Zepizure. CHANGE IN DCF € 6.97 vs 7.51 -7.23% Our DCF valuation has reset lower owing to a highe...
- Fabrice Farigoule
FY24 and outlook: long is the road…
FY24 and outlook: long is the road… EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES The group has released its FY24 results. The figures are not particularly meaningful, as they pertain to products still under development. However, we recognise that financing needs remain a concern. The expected EUA filing in Q225 is confirmed, which is positive. Nonetheless, the immediate requirement for additional funding is evident. FACT The group released its FY24 results. Operating income was €13.256m compared to €13.326m in t...
- Saïma Hussain
IDI: Private equity access with shareholder focus
IDI: Private equity access with shareholder focus EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES In a challenging 2024, IDI remained selective yet resilient, prioritising quality over volume with eight strategic deals, including stakes in Capexsto and TTK. While this measured approach weighed on net income, it reflected IDI’s disciplined investment strategy—waiting for the right opportunities, not just any. With €346m ready to deploy, IDI remained poised for action. A €1.4 extraordinary dividend reinforced its unwav...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Target upgrade by 19.6% (Drone Volt)
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.30) ns 2025 : € (0.12) vs (0.11) ns Our EPS for 2024 have been affected primarily by the impairment of the Aquline drones stake (€3.4m impact) that we had not anticipated, a higher-than-expected tax level (c.€1.6m) and the higher D&A (€0.8m). CHANGE IN NAV € 1.30 vs 0.89 +45.3% We have updated our NAV to take into account the strong rerating of Defence activities by the market, thus increasing the multiple for the Drone Volt Factory from 2x ...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
A better-looking FY24 release than it seems
A better-looking FY24 release than it seems EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES This release shows that the basis for EBITDA profitability has been laid and that the deterioration at the EBIT level was mostly related to non-recurring, non-operating, and non-cash impacts. The outlook for 2025 is unchanged, underpinned by the new orders from the US and more ambitious cost-cutting plans. Further orders for defence purposes, as well as for the Kobra drone, could help boost the ongoing re-rating of the stock, ...
- Loco Douza
FY 24: A cautious outlook despite positive volume trend
FY 24: A cautious outlook despite positive volume trend EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Cementir Holding reported positive FY24 results, exceeding sales and EBITDA projections, driven by positive volume trends. However, currency devaluations in Turkey and Egypt weighed on overall performance and are expected to remain a challenge in 2025. Despite this, the company has upgraded its industrial plan, projecting EBITDA growth in the coming years and aiming for a significant increase in cash by 2027. Addit...
- Loco Douza
EPS upgrade (2024: +5.7%, 2025: +6.8%) (Cementir Holding)
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € 1.25 vs 1.18 +5.68% 2025 : € 1.27 vs 1.18 +6.81% We have incorporated the better-than-expected FY24 results into our model, with the EBITDA exceeding our forecasts, mainly due to higher-than-anticipated volumes. This positive volume trend bodes well for future results, as the company's EBITDA guidance for 2025 is also ahead of our forecasts. We believe Turkey’s strong volume momentum could support growth in the coming years, although the key challenge remains...
- Fabrice Farigoule
A complex financing given the amounts involved
A complex financing given the amounts involved FINANCING ISSUE The group announced the issuance of a second tranche of bonds to Heights Capital, related to the February 2024 issuance, and amended the bond conditions. Overall, this will not significantly impact our figures, as the additional dilution is at least partially or fully offset by the cash inflow. FACT Crossject announced the issuance to Heights of a second tranche with a nominal value of €2,496,400, at an issue price of 90% of the...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Integrating the FY24 trading update (Drone Volt)
Integrating the FY24 trading update TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.30) vs (0.26) ns 2025 : € (0.11) vs (0.10) ns We have integrated the sales and gross margin figures for the FY24 that came in slightly under our expectations due to a sudden slump in sales from the distribution side, resulting in a €6.9m shortfall in sales to €28.3m in distribution, partially mitigated by higher sales on the Drone Volt Factory, Academy and services side (c.€200k to €4.4m). Although the global gross m...
- Loco Douza
Cementir speaks excellent turkish, too
Cementir speaks excellent turkish, too LATEST AlphaValue is closely monitoring Turkey’s impact on Cementir Holding, which accounts for a significant portion of the company’s valuation and earnings growth. With Turkey’s cement market flooded with excess capacity, Cementir’s strategic assets, including Çimentas Izmir, position the company well to capitalise on reconstruction demand from Syria and Ukraine. Despite risks such as competition and political uncertainty, Cementir’s growth potential in...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
FY 24: A rapid strategic change undertaken
FY 24: A rapid strategic change undertaken EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled a mixed FY24 trading update with a new sales record, despite the brake put on distribution sales in Q4, and announced one (potentially two) new dilutive financing operations to fund its production capacity growth. 2025 should be the year of EBITDA profitability, an enticing prospect for shareholders given that it should depend on a more resilient business model. FACT Sales for FY24 grew by 36% from €24.0m ...
- Loco Douza
NAV upgrade by 22.9% (Cementir Holding)
NAV CHANGE CHANGE IN NAV € 14.7 vs 11.9 +22.9% We have revised our valuation method for the company’s Turkish asset, shifting from a multiple based on cement capacity to the market value of the asset, as it is publicly listed under the name Çimentas Izmir. Cementir Holding owns 96.7% of Çimentas Izmir, which now accounts for 44% of its NAV. CHANGE IN DCF € 16.9 vs 14.9 +13.1% We have lowered our long-term expectations for green capex for Cementir Holding, as its CCS project with Air Liquide ...
- Fabrice Farigoule
An unsurprising additional financing round.
An unsurprising additional financing round. FINANCING ISSUE Crossject announced another capital increase (and issue of warrants) that will provide it with c.€7.2m in the short term (before potential exercise of warrants which could provide another €10m). This was bound to happen in our view and, therefore, is no real surprise ahead of the filing and approval grant for Zepizure in the US. That said, this will weigh on the share price in the short term and H1 25 will be key for the group’s cred...
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