reports
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Target cut by -13.7% (Drone Volt)
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.59) 2025 : € (0.09) vs (0.12) ns Our 2025 EPS forecast has benefited from the higher average number of shares in 2025 (+9m to 39m) resulting from the €5m capital raising and the subsequent expected exercise of the share purchase warrants attached to these new shares, thus reducing the loss per share. CHANGE IN NAV € 1.07 vs 1.30 -17.1% Our NAV has been impacted by the c.18m increase in the number of shares to c.53m expected at year-end 2025...
- Fabrice Farigoule
Integrating the FY24 numbers. (Crossject)
Integrating the FY24 numbers. EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.30) vs (0.23) ns 2025 : € 0.00 vs 0.02 ns We have integrated the set of FY24 numbers released yesterday. The FY24 net loss came in higher than our forecast, mainly owing to higher financial expenses (bond issuance to HCM) and a lower tax credit. This does not change our forecasts and view looking forward, based on the launch of Zepizure. CHANGE IN DCF € 6.97 vs 7.51 -7.23% Our DCF valuation has reset lower owing to a highe...
- Fabrice Farigoule
FY24 and outlook: long is the road…
FY24 and outlook: long is the road… EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES The group has released its FY24 results. The figures are not particularly meaningful, as they pertain to products still under development. However, we recognise that financing needs remain a concern. The expected EUA filing in Q225 is confirmed, which is positive. Nonetheless, the immediate requirement for additional funding is evident. FACT The group released its FY24 results. Operating income was €13.256m compared to €13.326m in t...
- Saïma Hussain
IDI: Private equity access with shareholder focus
IDI: Private equity access with shareholder focus EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES In a challenging 2024, IDI remained selective yet resilient, prioritising quality over volume with eight strategic deals, including stakes in Capexsto and TTK. While this measured approach weighed on net income, it reflected IDI’s disciplined investment strategy—waiting for the right opportunities, not just any. With €346m ready to deploy, IDI remained poised for action. A €1.4 extraordinary dividend reinforced its unwav...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Target upgrade by 19.6% (Drone Volt)
TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.59) vs (0.30) ns 2025 : € (0.12) vs (0.11) ns Our EPS for 2024 have been affected primarily by the impairment of the Aquline drones stake (€3.4m impact) that we had not anticipated, a higher-than-expected tax level (c.€1.6m) and the higher D&A (€0.8m). CHANGE IN NAV € 1.30 vs 0.89 +45.3% We have updated our NAV to take into account the strong rerating of Defence activities by the market, thus increasing the multiple for the Drone Volt Factory from 2x ...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
A better-looking FY24 release than it seems
A better-looking FY24 release than it seems EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES This release shows that the basis for EBITDA profitability has been laid and that the deterioration at the EBIT level was mostly related to non-recurring, non-operating, and non-cash impacts. The outlook for 2025 is unchanged, underpinned by the new orders from the US and more ambitious cost-cutting plans. Further orders for defence purposes, as well as for the Kobra drone, could help boost the ongoing re-rating of the stock, ...
- Loco Douza
FY 24: A cautious outlook despite positive volume trend
FY 24: A cautious outlook despite positive volume trend EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Cementir Holding reported positive FY24 results, exceeding sales and EBITDA projections, driven by positive volume trends. However, currency devaluations in Turkey and Egypt weighed on overall performance and are expected to remain a challenge in 2025. Despite this, the company has upgraded its industrial plan, projecting EBITDA growth in the coming years and aiming for a significant increase in cash by 2027. Addit...
- Loco Douza
EPS upgrade (2024: +5.7%, 2025: +6.8%) (Cementir Holding)
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € 1.25 vs 1.18 +5.68% 2025 : € 1.27 vs 1.18 +6.81% We have incorporated the better-than-expected FY24 results into our model, with the EBITDA exceeding our forecasts, mainly due to higher-than-anticipated volumes. This positive volume trend bodes well for future results, as the company's EBITDA guidance for 2025 is also ahead of our forecasts. We believe Turkey’s strong volume momentum could support growth in the coming years, although the key challenge remains...
- Fabrice Farigoule
A complex financing given the amounts involved
A complex financing given the amounts involved FINANCING ISSUE The group announced the issuance of a second tranche of bonds to Heights Capital, related to the February 2024 issuance, and amended the bond conditions. Overall, this will not significantly impact our figures, as the additional dilution is at least partially or fully offset by the cash inflow. FACT Crossject announced the issuance to Heights of a second tranche with a nominal value of €2,496,400, at an issue price of 90% of the...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Integrating the FY24 trading update (Drone Volt)
Integrating the FY24 trading update TARGET CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € (0.30) vs (0.26) ns 2025 : € (0.11) vs (0.10) ns We have integrated the sales and gross margin figures for the FY24 that came in slightly under our expectations due to a sudden slump in sales from the distribution side, resulting in a €6.9m shortfall in sales to €28.3m in distribution, partially mitigated by higher sales on the Drone Volt Factory, Academy and services side (c.€200k to €4.4m). Although the global gross m...
- Loco Douza
Cementir speaks excellent turkish, too
Cementir speaks excellent turkish, too LATEST AlphaValue is closely monitoring Turkey’s impact on Cementir Holding, which accounts for a significant portion of the company’s valuation and earnings growth. With Turkey’s cement market flooded with excess capacity, Cementir’s strategic assets, including Çimentas Izmir, position the company well to capitalise on reconstruction demand from Syria and Ukraine. Despite risks such as competition and political uncertainty, Cementir’s growth potential in...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
FY 24: A rapid strategic change undertaken
FY 24: A rapid strategic change undertaken EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt unveiled a mixed FY24 trading update with a new sales record, despite the brake put on distribution sales in Q4, and announced one (potentially two) new dilutive financing operations to fund its production capacity growth. 2025 should be the year of EBITDA profitability, an enticing prospect for shareholders given that it should depend on a more resilient business model. FACT Sales for FY24 grew by 36% from €24.0m ...
- Loco Douza
NAV upgrade by 22.9% (Cementir Holding)
NAV CHANGE CHANGE IN NAV € 14.7 vs 11.9 +22.9% We have revised our valuation method for the company’s Turkish asset, shifting from a multiple based on cement capacity to the market value of the asset, as it is publicly listed under the name Çimentas Izmir. Cementir Holding owns 96.7% of Çimentas Izmir, which now accounts for 44% of its NAV. CHANGE IN DCF € 16.9 vs 14.9 +13.1% We have lowered our long-term expectations for green capex for Cementir Holding, as its CCS project with Air Liquide ...
- Fabrice Farigoule
An unsurprising additional financing round.
An unsurprising additional financing round. FINANCING ISSUE Crossject announced another capital increase (and issue of warrants) that will provide it with c.€7.2m in the short term (before potential exercise of warrants which could provide another €10m). This was bound to happen in our view and, therefore, is no real surprise ahead of the filing and approval grant for Zepizure in the US. That said, this will weigh on the share price in the short term and H1 25 will be key for the group’s cred...
- Saïma Hussain
Steady dividend growth reflects IDI's robust model
Steady dividend growth reflects IDI's robust model LATEST IDI declared an interim dividend of €2.5 per share for FY-24, representing 90% of the 2023 ordinary dividend. This announcement further illustrates IDI’s attractiveness as a yielding stock, offering shareholders remarkable visibility and resilience, irrespective of the economic environment. IDI is thereby reaffirming the strength of its flexible investment approach and rigorous capital allocation discipline. FACT IDI has announced an...
- Christian Auzanneau
Merger Project with MHM
Merger Project with MHM M&A /CORP. ACTION MyHotelMatch, a company in the Ott galaxy, announces a project to merge with Courbet Heritage. FACT MHM may purchase Courbet Heritage. Regulatory approval is necessary. ANALYSIS Governance The Ott family almost entirely owns Courbet Heritage, with the Ott family owning less than 30% of MHM. Given Courbet Heritage’s valuation advantage, if the transaction were fully compensated with new MHM shares, the Ott family’s stake in NewMHM would exceed 30...
- Saïma Hussain
Q3-24: Navigating 2024 with a thoughtful investment approach
Q3-24: Navigating 2024 with a thoughtful investment approach EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES IDI ended Q3 2024 with minimal activity on the investment front. Including its recent minority stake in TTK, a liquid leak detection specialist, IDI completed only three transactions YTD, compared to 14 in the same period last year. Though IDI’s net income is likely to suffer accordingly, this underlines IDI’s savvy investment approach in persistently uncertain market conditions. With substantial investment ca...
- Loco Douza
Q3 24: Volumes appear to have passed the trough
Q3 24: Volumes appear to have passed the trough EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Cementir Holding’s 9M results showed positive volume growth, driven by strong demand in Turkey, which offset the decline in some other regions. Sales and EBITDA declined due to lower volumes in some regions and a negative one-off impact. The company secured an EU grant for a CCS project in Denmark to reduce CO2 emissions. Based on these positive results, we have raised our FY24 EBITDA estimates and maintain a positive outl...
- Loco Douza
EPS upgrade (2024: +8.8%, 2025: +12.5%) (Cementir Holding)
EPS CHANGE CHANGE IN EPS 2024 : € 1.18 vs 1.08 +8.76% 2025 : € 1.18 vs 1.05 +12.5% We have raised our EBITDA estimates, as we observe signs of a volume improvement. Volumes appear to have passed the trough, and we believe the company’s price stability and cost management will help improve margins, positively impacting our EPS. CHANGE IN DCF € 15.6 vs 14.3 +9.51% We have revised our Sales and EBITDA estimates for the coming years as we believe that the company will maintain its EBITDA margin...
- Alexandre DESPREZ
Decent Q3 results
Decent Q3 results EARNINGS/SALES RELEASES Drone Volt released a rather good Q3 trading update, more than doubling its top line and posting a significant improvement in gross margins, despite being affected by a more unfavourable product mix. The outlook remains unchanged for 2024 and 2025, despite the desire to reduce the distribution share in the revenue mix going forward, marking confidence in the new activities. We thus reiterate our positive stance on the stock. FACT Sales grew by 139% c...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.