AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/03/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: Production rises again. Maiden reserves report. First LNG sales in Kazakhstan on track for 1H26 – YE24 2P reserves in Uzbekistan were estimated at 18.5 mmboe. 4Q24 production was 10,511 boe/d increasing to 12,019 boe/d in March to date and 12,288 boe/d over the past five days. In March, Condor signed a non-binding letter of intent outlining the basic terms and conditions for the purchase of a modular LNG facility capable of producing 48,000 gallons per day. As we incorporate the new modular 80t/y LNG plant, we have increased our target price from C$5.60/sh to C$5.70/sh, consistent with our ReNAV.
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Pharos Energy (PHAR LN)C; Target price of £0.50 per share: Return to production growth in Vietnam – FY24 production and YE24 net cash have already been reported. The FY25 production guidance of 5.0-6.2 mboe/d is unchanged. However, the highlight of the press release is the upcoming programme in Vietnam. The FY25 capex guidance has increased to US$37–66 mm, up from the previous US$33 mm. The minimum programme includes drilling the TGT appraisal commitment well (18X) and procuring long-lead items for three TGT infill wells and two CNV wells (one appraisal well, 5X, and one infill well), scheduled for drilling in 2026. The upper capex range assumes these wells are drilled in 2025, potentially using two rigs operating simultaneously at TGT and CNV. The development programme could boost Vietnam production by ~20% in 2026 compared to 2025. Additionally, six more development wells and further continuation of production beyond the current license expiry date at TGT could bring 5.5 mmboe of 2C contingent resources into production - representing 90% of the field's current 2P reserves. Success at the 18X appraisal well, set to be drilled later this year at TGT, would de-risk an additional 1–3 mmboe of prospective resources in the western area of the field. In Egypt, receivables have remained stable since YE24. However, Pharos is awaiting agreement on new licence terms and improved payment conditions to accelerate its investment programme. Approval of new FDPs for TGT and CNV to support further drilling programmes targeting 2C resources could increase our Core NAV by £0.26 per share. Additionally, a successful 18X appraisal well at TGT would unlock an unrisked value of £0.06 per share.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80: Accessing project finance rather than equity – Pulsar has signed a term sheet for a US$4 mm project finance facility set to mature in March 2026. The facility will bear interest at 12% per annum on any drawn amounts, with a 2% utilization fee on draws, which will be reimbursable at maturity. We understand that Pulsar will be able to draw on this facility imminently. This highlights the quality of the Topaz asset. Accessing project finance at this stage underscores its value, as such funding is typically only available closer to FID. The company will require less equity than anticipated. With the completion of the second equity tranche of the private placement announced in December, Pulsar has raised ~US$2.4 mm of new equity, compared to earlier expectations of US$7.5 mm. Flow testing of the Jetstream #1 and #2 will start ~29 March with each well to be flowed for a period of approximately two weeks. Reflecting on the lower equity dilution, we have increased our target price from £0.80 per share to £0.85 per share. Our unrisked NAV for the contingent plus prospective helium is £1.73 per share plus £0.75 for the CO2 resources (Pmean in both cases).
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Valeura Energy (VLE CN)C; Target price of C$13 per share: FY24 results in line. Additional reserves expected in early 2Q25 – FY24 production, YE24 reserves and YE24 net cash had been reported previously. The FY25 guidance has been re-iterated. Production in March to date at Manora was 2.9 mbbl/d. FID for the Wassana redevelopment is still anticipated in early 2Q25, with first oil expected in early-2027. A significant portion of the 10.6 mmbbl low-risk contingent resources at Wassana will be converted into 2P reserves upon FID. 10 development and appraisal wells are currently planned for the Jasmine field in 2025 and one exploration well at the Ratree prospect. The Ratree prospect, with prospective resources of 3.4-41.9 mmbbl (19.4 mmbbl mid case), is expected to be drilled around mid-2025. In a success case, this could be a new development with its own infrastructure. Our unrisked NAV is C$2.42 per share.
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Southern Energy (SOU CN/SOUC LN)C; Target price of £0.35: Amended terms for equity raise – The previously announced US$6 mm equity raise has been repriced at C$0.07 per share (3.8 p per share) instead of C$0.09 per share. Participants will also receive one full warrant for each new share with an exercise price of C$0.09 per share (half a warrant per new share with an exercise price of C$0.10 per share previously).
IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
Argentina: YPF sells stake in Vaca Muerta asset – GCG is buying 49% interest in the Aguada del Chanar block for US$75 mm. CGC will also fund 80.4% of the capex during the first four years.
Rockhopper Exploration (RKH LN): Operating update in the Falklands – 730 mmbbl gross 2C contingent resources are now classified as “Development Pending”. Gross capex to first oil is estimated at ~US$1.4 bn. FID is expected around mid 2025.
Woodside Energy (WDS AU): Selling assets in Trinidad – Woodside is selling its Greater Angostura assets to Perenco for US$206 mm. The divestment includes Woodside’s interest in the shallow water Angostura and Ruby fields.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
ExxonMobil (XOM US): Divesting Assets in Thailand – Exxon is divesting a 7.5% WI in the E5N and EU1 development licences, onshore Thailand, which contain the producing Sinphuhorm conventional gas and condensate field, and a 60% interest in the E5 development licence, onshore Thailand, which contains the producing
Nam Phong conventional gas field for US$30 mm (effective date of 01/01/2025), plus up to US$7.5 mm in contingent payments over the next six years. The fields hold 3.9 mmboe of 2P reserves and produces ~2 mboe/d.
EUROPE
DNO (DNO NO): Discovery in Norway – 39-75 mmboe recoverable resources have been encountered in Paleocene injectite sandstones on license PL1182 S.
Ithaca Energy (ITH LN): Acquisition in the UK. FY24 results – Ithaca is acquiring JAPEX UK E&P for an enterprise value of US$193 mm (effective date 01/01/2024). JUK holds 15% WI in the Seagull oil field. The transaction is expected to add 7 mmboe of 2P reserves and 4-4.5 mboe/d production in 2025. Ithaca has declared a third interim dividend of US$200 mm. The company is targeting dividend distribution of US$500 mm in 2025. YE24 2P reserves and 2C resources were estimated at 657 mmboe. Production from November 2024 to February 2025 was >120 mboe/d. Ithaca expects to produce 105-115 mboe/d in 2025 with US$560-620 mm capex (excluding Rosebank). Rosebank capex is estimated at US$190-230 mm. Beyond 2025, Ithaca expects to sustain >100 mboe/d production.
OKEA (OKEA NO): Dry hole in Norway – The Horatio exploration well was dry.
Repsol (REP SM): Divesting interests in renewable portfolio in Spain – Schroders Capital has acquired a
49% stake in a Repsol’s portfolio of eight wind farms (300 MW) and two solar plants (100 MW).
Repsol (REP SM): Merger of UK assets with NEO Energy – Repsol is merging its UK upstream assets with NEO. The projected FY25 production of the combined entity is 130 mboe/d. Repsol E&P will retain a funding commitment up to a nominal amount of US$1.8 bn, representing approximately a 40% of the decom liabilities related to its legacy assets. Repsol will hold 45% interest in the combined entity.
Shell (SHEL LN): Strategy. Enhanced distributions – Shell plans to enhance distributions from 30-40% to 40-50% of cash flow from operations. The company is planning to maintain a 4% per annum progressive dividend policy. Capex is expected the range between US$20 bn and US$22 bn per year for 2025-2028. Shell plans to grow LNG sales by 4-5% per year and top line production by 1% per year through to 2030.
UK: Large new developments to be approved – The UK Chancellor said that the development of Jackdaw and Rosebank would get the consents they need to progress, despite the legal challenges.
Waldorf Production: FY24 results – FY24 production in the UK was 19,378 boe/d. YE4 net debt was US$381 mm. The company expects to produce 15-17 mboe/d with US$45 mm capex in 2025.
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Block Energy (BLOE LN): Acquisition in Georgia – Block is acquiring 10% interest in the XIQ PSC. Prospective resources on the block are estimated at 451 mmbbl of oil and 823 bcf of natural gas.
MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): FY24 results - FY24 production in Egypt was 23,763 boe/d. FY25 production is expected to be 17-21 mboe/d with US$85-95 mm capex. YE24 WI 2P reserves were estimated 40.3 mmboe.
Serinus Energy (SENX LN): Take over offer – The board of Serinus is recommending a cash offer by Xtellus Capital to acquire the company at a price of 3.40p per share.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): Selling Gabon. Reserves downgrade – Tullow has signed a binding heads of terms agreements with Gabon Oil for the sale of Tullow Gabon for US$300 mm net of tax. The assets are expected to produce ~10 mbbl/d in 2025 and were estimated to hold 36 mmbbl of 2P reserves at YE24. The transaction has an effective date of 01/01/2025. FY25 production is expected to be 50-55 mboe/d with US$250 mm capex plus US$30 mm for decommissioning. YE24 net debt was US$1.45 bn. YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 164.5 mmboe (YE23: 212.2 mmboe). The reduction reflects 22.4 mmboe production during 2024 and a downward revision at Jubilee where water has broken through in some producing wells earlier than previously expected. The company also held 708.6 mmboe of 2C contingent resources (YE23: 745 mmboe).
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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01/04/2025 – Serica Energy (SQZ LN): FY24 results
Block Energy plc, formerly Goldcrest Resources plc, is an oil and gas company. The Company's projects include norio onshore oil field, east kavtiskhevi (block VIII), akoko asheba gold project and Mauritania copper. Norio project is 35 kilometres from the centre of Tbilisi, requiring low capex recompletions of existing wells and new horizontal wells, to existing production. East kavtiskhevi (block VIII), which consist 36.9 MMbbl risked resources in Cretaceous, 4,700 kilometers area and multiple prospective horizons. Asheba project is located at the southern end of the Ashanti belt 15km east of Endeavour Mining's Nzema mine and 30 kilometers south of the world class Tarkwa mine. At Asheba, mineralisation is centered on the old Cheriamen and Atinasi mining sites within multiple parallel steep dipping zones associated with intense silicification, disseminated pyrite and a stockwork of quart veinlets. Mauritania project is an exploration concept.
Cairn Energy is an oil and gas exploration and development company. Co. has three groups of business unit: Senegal, which focuses on appraising the discoveries offshore Senegal and to identify further exploration prospects for drilling; U.K and Norway, which includes exploration activities in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea and management of Co.'s development assets in the U.K. North Sea; and International, which consists of all other regions where Co. holds exploration licenses, including Greenland, Ireland, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania and the Mediterranean. As at Dec 31 2016, Co. had total proved plus probable reserves of 51.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
DNO is a Norwegian exploration and production company focused on the Middle East and North Africa. Co. holds stakes in oil and gas blocks in various stages of exploration, development and production, both onshore and offshore, in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, Yemen, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Tunisia and Somaliland.
Exxon Mobil operates or markets products in United States and other countries through its divisions and affiliated companies. The company's business involves exploration for, and production of, crude oil and natural gas and manufacture, trade, transport and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals and other products. In United States, the company's development activities are focused on the onshore United States, in the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico and the Bakken oil play in North Dakota. Gas development activities are also focused on the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania and West Virginia, the Utica Shale of Ohio and the Haynesville Shale of East Texas and Louisiana.
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
Soco International is an oil and gas exploration and production company. Co. has exploration, development and production interests in Vietnam, and exploration and appraisal interests in the Republic of Congo and Angola. As of Dec 31 2016, Co.'s commercial reserves were 33.3 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Repsol is an oil and gas company. Co. is engaged in all the activities relating to the oil and gas industry, including exploration, development and production of crude oil and natural gas, transportation of oil products, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas, refining, the production of a wide range of oil products and the retailing of oil products, oil derivatives, petrochemicals, LPG and natural gas, as well as the generation, transportation, distribution and supply of electricity. Co. operates in more than 40 countries. Co.'s operations are divided into four segments: Upstream, Downstream, LNG and Gas Natural Fenosa.
Rockhopper Exploration is an oil and gas exploration and production company with key interests in the North Falkland Basin and the Greater Mediterranean region.
Serinus Energy is engaged in the exploration for and development of oil and gas properties in Ukarine, Brunei and Syria.
Tullow Oil is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Co.'s focus is on finding oil in Africa and South America. Co.'s primary activities include targeted exploration and appraisal, selective development projects and growing its production. As of Dec 31 2017, Co.'s portfolio included 90 licences in 16 countries. Co.'s operations are organized into three business delivery teams: West Africa; East Africa; and New Ventures. As of Dec 31 2017, on a working interest basis, Co. had commercial reserves of 245.7 million barrels of oil, 268.90 billion cubic feet of gas, and 290.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (petroleum).
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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