Corcel plc (AIM: CRCL): Increasing the size of the prize
• Corcel has updated the prospectivity of its three Angolan blocks, following reinterpretation of legacy seismic and enhanced Full Tensor Gravity Gradiometry (eFTG) data. The revised analysis indicates more pre-salt and post-salt leads and prospects than previously anticipated.• At KON-16, five pre-salt leads and prospects have been identified, each estimated to hold 20–300 mmbbl of prospective resources, compared to three pre-salt prospects with 300 mmbbl recoverable estimates previously. The first pre-salt prospect to be drilled is estimated to hold 300 mmbbl prospective resources.
• At KON-12, four pre-salt leads and prospects with 50-150 mmbbl prospective resources (per prospect) have been identified, where none had been assumed prior.
• A typical post-salt prospect is now estimated to hold 20-40 mmbbl prospective resources (~100 mmbbl previously), as only the shallower Binga formation has been included.
• A total of eight post-salt leads and prospects have been identified, comprising three at KON-16 (unchanged), one at KON-12 (previously none), and four at KON-11 (also previously none).
• While Corcel awaits for the transaction with Sintana Energy to complete, the company has raised £1.1 mm of new equity at a price of 0.34 p per share to fund a deposit for a 2D seismic programme, with results expected by YE25. The campaign aims to refine imaging of both shallow post-salt and deeper pre-salt targets.
• Incorporating updated resource estimates and the equity raise, we maintain our target price of 1.50 pence per share.
• A new Competent Person Report (CPR) with independent prospective resource estimates for KON-16 is expected in 3Q25.
• Drilling at KON-16 is planned for 2026. A successful post-salt well (20–40 mmbbl) could add ~0.40–0.80 pence/share, while the unrisked upside from a pre-salt discovery (~300 mmbbl) is estimated at ~5.85 pence per share (~US$650 mm).
Valuation
Our ReNAV is now 1.49 p per share. It includes only one pre-salt and one post-salt prospect at KON-16. The overall unrisked NAV of the company based on its entire portfolio of leads and prospects is 10 p per share.
Regency Mines is engaged as a natural resource exploration and development company. Co. manages a balanced portfolio of mineral and oil and gas projects and investments at different stages of development. Co. is active in multiple international locations including the U.K., Papua New Guinea, the U.S. and Greenland.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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