AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 31/01/2025
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS________________________________________
Corcel (CRCL LN)C; Target price of 1.00p per share: Restarting intervention activities at Tobias field -Intervention activities will soon restart at the Tobias-13 and Tobias-14 wells on Block KON-11, aiming to re-establish production at the Tobias field. Discovered in 1961, the Tobias field initially had an estimated 94 mmbbl of oil in place. Twelve wells were drilled, with eight producers reaching peak production of 17.5 mbbl/d. The Tobias-13 and Tobias-14 wells, drilled in late 2023/early 2024, did not flow oil to the surface during initial testing. Overall, the field could be re-developed with four wells to recover approximately 7 mmbbl (around 1.8 mmbbl per well), assuming an initial production rate of 600 bbl/d. Corcel holds an 18% net interest in the field. Our unrisked NAV for Tobias is 0.06p per share. The larger opportunity at KON-11 lies in exploration. There are multiple post-salt leads on KON-11 similar to Tobias. Further 2D seismic (200 line km) is expected to be conducted in 2025 to map the prospects, potentially leading to an exploration well. KON-11 is one of three onshore blocks held by Corcel in the Kwanza basin. The most significant for Corcel is KON-16 (49.5% net interest), where the first exploration well will target both a post-salt (~100 mmbbl) and a pre-salt (~300 mmbbl) prospect. Successful drilling of a post-salt target could add 1.15p per share, with a further unrisked value of 3.44p per share for the pre-salt target.
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Pulsar Helium (PLSR LN/CN)C; Target price of £0.80 per share: Promising results of passive seismic survey in Greenland – The passive seismic survey interpretation has revealed two anomaly zones that correspond with surface observations of a hydrothermal zone and a fault associated with gas emissions containing up to 0.8% helium. These findings have identified clear targets for exploration drilling. Additionally, the interpretation suggests that the rock is more fractured than initially expected, which could positively impact permeability and gas volumes. The company is currently exploring potential strategic partnerships to advance the project.
IN OTHER NEWS
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AMERICAS
88 Energy (88E LN/AU): Resource estimates in Alaska – The Canning prospect is estimated to hold 283 mmbbl unrisked prospective resources.
Canacol Energy (CNE CN): Operating update in Colombia – 4Q24 gas sales were 163 mmcfe/d. The Lulo-3 appraisal well encountered 101 ft TVD of gas pay. The Natilla-2 ST1 exploration well encountered very high pressure gas in the 550 ft TVD Porquero formation with good reservoir quality. The Pibe-2 appraisal well encountered non commercial gas.
Diversified Energy (DEC LN/US): Acquiring US oil and gas business – Diversified is acquiring Maverick Natural Resources from EIG for US$1.275 bn. Maverick produces 350 mmcfe/d including 45% of natural gas and 55% of liquids. A portion of the acquisition directly offsets Diversified's core Western Anadarko position with active development in the Cherokee Play, and provides a new Permian asset base with multiple zones in the Northern Delaware Basin. Consideration is expected to be satisfied through the assumption of ~US$700 mm of Maverick outstanding debt, the issuance of approximately 21.2 mm new Diversified shares valued at ~US$345 mm, and ~US$207 mm in cash.
ASIA AND AUSTRALASIA
PetroChina: Withdrawing from block in Indonesia – Media reports highlighted that CNPC is exiting the Sampang PSC. PetroChina holds 40% WI. There are two producing fields and one development asset on the block.
EUROPE
Europa Oil & Gas (EOG LN): Operations update - UK net production in December averaged over 124 bbl/d. Europa held £0.96 mm in unrestricted cash at YE24. In EG Europa is aiming to receive offers to provide Antler (42.9% held by Europa) with a full carry on an exploration well targeting the ~900 bcf Barracuda prospect in 1H25.
OKEA Energy (OKEA NO): 4Q24 results – YE24 net cash was NOK480 mm. The production guidance for 2025 and 2026 is unchanged at 28-32 mboe/d and 26-30 mboe/d respectively with capex of NOK 3.3-3.7 bn and NOK 3.2-3.8 bn respectively.
Shell (SHEL LN): 4Q24 results – Adjusted net earnings for the period were US$3.66 bn with 2,764 mboe/d production.
Var Energi (VR NO): 4Q24 update and reserve update in Norway – 4Q24 production was 278 mboe/d. YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 1,187 mmboe (reserve replacement ration of ~300%) with 927 mmboe 2C contingent resources (YE23: 628 mmboe).
FORMER SOVIET UNION
Cadogan Energy (CAD LN): Operating update in Ukraine – FY24 net oil production was 353 bbl/d.
Nostrum Oil & Gas (NOG LN): Operating update in Kazakhstan – FY24 production was 14,935 boe/d. Chinarevskoye is expected to produce 5,500 - 6,500 boe/d in 2025.
MIDDLE-EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
Capricorn Energy (CNE LN): Trading update in Egypt – FY24 production was 23,739 boe/d.
Genel Energy (GENL LN): 4Q24 update in Kurdistan – FY24 WI production was 19,650 bbl/d. YE24 net cash was US$131 mm. YE24 receivables stand at US$107 mm. Genel has not made an appeal to the arbitration case decision to support the termination of the Miran and Bina Bawi PSC by the KRG. The KRG is now claiming US$36 mm of damage.
ReconAfrica (RECO CN): Exploration drilling results onshore Namibia – The Naingopo exploration well encountered 52 m of net reservoir with indication of oil in the Otavi Group, with the Mulden reservoirs being tighter than expected. The primary objective in the Otavi above the main fault was not penetrated due to seismic uncertainties. The company will drill Prospect I in the Damara Fold Belt ahead of Kambundu, which is expected to spud in July.
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Africa Energy (AFE CC/AEC SS): Raising new equity – Africa Energy will settle ~US$5.4 mm of existing indebtness through the issuance of ~390 mm new shares to existing debtholders. The company is also raising US$8.3 mm of new equity at a price of C$0.02 per share.
BW Energy (BWE NO): 4Q24 results – Net production from the Dussafu licence in Gabon averaged ~27,300 bbl/d in 4Q24 while Golfinho (Brazil) produced 6.4 mbbl/d. YE24 net debt was US$341 mm. FY25 production is expected to be 30-33 mbbl/d with US$260-285 mm capex.
Tullow Oil (TLW LN): 4Q24 trading update – FY24 WI production was 61.2 mboe/d including 33.9 mboe/d for Jubilee and 10.6 mboe/d for Gabon and Cote d’Ivoire. YE24 net debt was US$1.45 bn. YE24 2P reserves were estimated at 164.5 mmboe. FY25 production is estimated to average 50-55 mboe/d with US$250 mm capex plus US$15 mm decommissioning spend.
EVENTS TO WATCH NEXT WEEK
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03/02/2025 – Galp Energy (GALP LI): 4Q24 trading update
04/02/2025 – OMV (OMV AG): FY24 results
05/02/2025 – Equinor (EQNR NO): FY24 results
BW Energy Ltd. BW Energy Limited is a Bermuda-based oil and gas company engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. The Company is involved in the acquisition, development and production of oil and natural gas fields. It has a diversified portfolio of production and development assets offshore West Africa and Brazil, and holds interests in three hydrocarbon licenses in Gabon, Brazil and Namibia. Its Dussafu Marin Permit and the associated Ruche Exclusive Exploitation Area (EEA) production license are located approximately 50 kilometers (km) off the coast of Gabon. The Ruche EEA covers an area of approximately 850 square kilometers. The Maromba discovery is located approximately 100 kilometers offshore in the southern part of the Campos Basin. The Kudu gas field is some 130 km offshore and covers an area approximately 4,500 square kilometers. The Company's subsidiaries include BW Energy Dussafu B.V., BW Energy Gabon Pte Ltd, BW Energy Gabon SA and BW Energy Holdings Pte Ltd.
Cadogan Petroleum is engaged in oil and gas exploration, development and production. Co. also conducts gas trading and provides services to other operators.
Cairn Energy is an oil and gas exploration and development company. Co. has three groups of business unit: Senegal, which focuses on appraising the discoveries offshore Senegal and to identify further exploration prospects for drilling; U.K and Norway, which includes exploration activities in the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and Barents Sea and management of Co.'s development assets in the U.K. North Sea; and International, which consists of all other regions where Co. holds exploration licenses, including Greenland, Ireland, Morocco, Western Sahara, Mauritania and the Mediterranean. As at Dec 31 2016, Co. had total proved plus probable reserves of 51.5 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Regency Mines is engaged as a natural resource exploration and development company. Co. manages a balanced portfolio of mineral and oil and gas projects and investments at different stages of development. Co. is active in multiple international locations including the U.K., Papua New Guinea, the U.S. and Greenland.
Diversified Gas & Oil is an Appalachian Basin focused natural gas and crude oil operations company.
Europa Oil & Gas is an exploration and production company focused on Europe. The principal activity of Co. and its subsidiaries (the Group) is investment in oil and gas exploration, development and production. The Group's assets and activities are located in Ireland and the U.K.
Genel Energy is a holding company. Co. is principally engaged in the business of oil and gas exploration and production. Co. has three segments: Oil, which is comprised of the producing assets, Taq Taq and Tawke, which are located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) and makes predominantly all sales to the Kurdistan Regional Government; Gas, which is comprised of the upstream and midstream activity on Miran and Bina Bawi also in the KRI; and Exploration, which is comprised of its exploration activity, principally located in the KRI, Somaliland and Morocco. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had proved plus probable working interest reserves of 161.0 million barrels of oil equivalent.
Okea ASA is a Norway-based oil company engaged in the oil and gas exploration and production industry. The Company contributes to the value creation on the Norwegian continental shelf with development and operation systems through the utilization of the result of previous and ongoing exploration activities in order to bring undeveloped oil on stream in strategic cooperation with service companies. Its services do not involve the exploration for petroleum. The Company operates an office in Trondheim, Norway.
Lund Enterprises is engaged in the business of exploring its mineral properties and has not yet determined whether these properties contain reserves that are economically recoverable. Co. is focusing on its Noront and Black Fox projects in Northern Ontario. Co. is in the exploration stage.
Tullow Oil is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company. Co.'s focus is on finding oil in Africa and South America. Co.'s primary activities include targeted exploration and appraisal, selective development projects and growing its production. As of Dec 31 2017, Co.'s portfolio included 90 licences in 16 countries. Co.'s operations are organized into three business delivery teams: West Africa; East Africa; and New Ventures. As of Dec 31 2017, on a working interest basis, Co. had commercial reserves of 245.7 million barrels of oil, 268.90 billion cubic feet of gas, and 290.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (petroleum).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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