Valeura Energy (TSX: VLE): Impressive reserves replacement ratio
• YE25 2P reserves were estimated at 57.8 mmbbl, implying a reserves‑replacement ratio of 192%. Even excluding the previously disclosed Wassana additions at FID, the company still achieved 100% organic replacement of 2025 production, adding 8.5 mmbbl of reserves. At US$10/bbl, this equates to roughly C$1.20 per share of value creation.• This performance is particularly notable given that the reserves auditor reduced its Brent price assumptions by ~US$7–15/bbl from 2026 onward, which had a negative impact on reserve bookings.
• Jasmine was the largest contributor, adding 7.4 mmbbl (or 4.4 mmbbl net of 2025 production), representing a 249% reserves‑replacement ratio. This reflects the conversion of contingent resources into the 2P reserves category following positive well results.
• Despite lower price assumptions, decommissioning timelines have been extended—by three years at Jasmine and six years at Wassana.
• The independent 2P reserves valuation, combined with YE25 net cash, equates to approximately C$13 per share.
• We raise our target price from C$12.70 to C$14 per share, with multiple catalysts still not reflected in our valuation.
What is not yet reflected in our valuation
• During 1Q26, Valeura plans to provide further details on the Devepinar‑1 well test and outline next steps for the deep‑gas play in Turkey. A 2018 reserves audit estimated ~20 tcfe of gross unconventional prospective resources across the Turkish licences.
• Valeura will also likely be in a position to consider an FID on its first gas development with PTTEP at Bussabong (Block G3/65) later this year, initially involving 1-2 platforms. We see the potential for both gas and oil developments on the block to materially boost the company’s reserves and resources.
Valuation
Our 2P NAV for Valeura now stands at ~C$11.80 per share. Incorporating appraisal upside in Thailand, our ReNAV increases to C$14.30 per share. We also forecast that the company’s YE28 net cash position will be broadly equivalent to its current market capitalisation.
Valeura Energy is engaged in the exploration, development and production of petroleum and natural gas in Turkey and Western Canada. As of Dec 31 2010, proven gross reserves for light and medium oil was 116 thousand barrels (net reserves of 104 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for heavy oil was 10 thousand barrels (net reserves of 9 thousand barrels); proven gross reserves for natural gas was 1,047 million cubic feet (net reserves of 938 million cubic feet); and proven gross reserves for natural gas liquids was 26 thousand barrels (net reserves of 19 thousand barrels).
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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