Condor Energies Inc. (TSX: CDR): Acquiring a LNG facility for Kazakhstan to deliver first LNG sale in 2Q26
• 1Q25 production in Uzbekistan was 11,179 boe/d (+6% vs. production in 4Q24).• Condor held ~C$33 mm in cash at the end of March, supported by a C$10.7 mm positive working capital movement in 1Q25. The accounts receivable balance decreased by C$9.4 mm since YE24, demonstrating consistent payments in Uzbekistan.
• The highlight of the press release is the progress achieved at the first LNG plant in Kazakhstan.
• In May, Condor purchased a 80,000 t per day modular LNG facility for the Saryozek plant site for US$6.5 mm - with US$1.5 mm due in 10 days and the balance paid upon milestones. Fabrication remains on track for completion in 4Q25, with first LNG sales anticipated in 2Q26. The additional cost to complete and commission the facility is estimated at US$18.6 mm.
• In April, Condor secured its third natural gas allocation. This allocation will be for the first LNG facility. The allocation can support the tripling of the size of the Saryozek facility (to 240,000 t per day).
• The finalization of the LNG offtake agreement is expected in the coming weeks. Its completion would unlock financing for facility construction, accelerating project execution.
• Incorporating the progress at Kazakhstan’s first LNG plant, we raise our target price from C$5.70 to C$5.90 per share, in line with our new ReNAV. This marks a major milestone in unlocking the value of Condor’s business.
• Our unrisked NAV for Condor’s LNG assets (Saryozek, Alga expected to start production in 2Q27 with FID in 4Q25 and Kuryk) exceeds C$8.00 per share. This assumes a capacity of only 80,000 t per day at Saryozek — offering further upside should capacity reach 240,000 t per day.
Drilling in Uzbekistan
Condor plans to drill three new wells starting early 3Q25, targeting Jurassic Carbonates, shallow Cretaceous formations, and deeper Middle Jurassic Clastics. No reserves are currently booked for the Cretaceous or Jurassic Clastics. Additionally, drilling will reach the fractured basement, which offers further resource potential, with a cost of only US$3.8 mm per well.
Valuation and financials
We have increased our chance of development for the 1st LNG plant from 65% to 85%. On receiving the offtake agreement, this would increase to 100%. Our new ReNAV is C$5.91 per share.
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