Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): More than meets the eyes at EG-23
• 3Q26 production and net debt (end-September) have already been reported. The company has reiterated FY25 capex guidance of ~US$40 mm.• Gross production in Gabon remains on track to return to ~40 mbbl/d in 2026.
• 3D seismic campaign across the Niosi, Guduma, and Dussafu licenses has commenced and is expected to run for ~two months. The program could also yield additional insights into undeveloped discoveries at Dussafu.
• On EG-23, seismic data is being reprocessed to remap seven existing discoveries, all located within ~20 km of the Alba platforms.
• Near-term focus is on the Estrella discovery, prioritized for its exceptional deliverability (6.7 mbbl/d of oil and 49 mmcf/d of gas) and high-quality reservoir (2 Darcy permeability). At such rates, twinning the existing well could anchor an initial development. Estrella is estimated to hold ~100 mms hydrocarbons in place; with a 60% recovery factor (liquids-rich gas condensate), the discovery could be highly material. This may also trigger a significant contingent resource addition in Panoro’s YE25 reserves statement.
• For now, we attribute ~40 mmboe to Estrella (~one-third of the 112 mmboe net discovered resources based on pre-existing data as estimated by the EG Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons carrying a small risked value of NOK4.1/share in our ReNAV. EG-23 has the potential to become a material component of our valuation.
• Incorporating the recent NOK appreciation vs. US$ and updates to our financial model, we have changed our target price to NOK46 per share.
Valuation
Our 2P NAV and ReNAV stand at NOK33 per share and NOK46 per share, respectively. The current share price is at a three‑year low, trading at one of the deepest discounts to 2P NAV observed over the period.
Panoro Energy is an international independent oil and gas company engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas resources in Brazil and West Africa. In Brazil, Co. participates in a number of oil and gas licenses located in the Santos basin outside the south-east coast of Brazil and in the Camamu-Almada basin in the state of Bahia. In West Africa, Co. participates in a number of licences in Nigeria and Gabon. As of Dec 31 2013, Co.'s commercial production is from the Manati field in Brazil.
Auctus Advisors is a specialist Equity Capital Markets and Advisory business with a focus in the Energy Sector.
The partners have complementary skill sets, with decades of experience across Equity Capital Markets, Investment Banking and the Energy industry. We have worked at Société Générale, Canaccord Capital, BMO Capital Markets and Schlumberger. Most recently we have worked together for many years at GMP FirstEnergy.
Auctus has been set up at the beginning of a new decade in which we see significant opportunities in the Energy space. Globally, demand for energy is at record levels and continues to grow. Conversely, investment in traditional energy sources has been severely constrained. We believe this imbalance creates opportunities for both companies and investors.
Auctus provides Corporate Broking, Equity Research and Investment Banking services.
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