reports
- Stephane Foucaud
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Discovery in Gabon. Reiterating producti...
• The Hibiscus South exploration well on the Dussafu permit has encountered 25 m of pay in an overall hydrocarbon column of 35 m in the Gamba formation. • This discovery could add ~5-6 mmbbl gross recoverable reserves (~1 mmbbl net to Panoro). • The Hibiscus South structure is a separate accumulation with a deeper oil-water contact than the nearby Hibiscus Field. • Importantly, a production well could now be drilled at Hibiscus South and tied to the MaBoMo facility, which would boost the overal...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK41.00) - Positive prospects
At its Q1 trading update, Panoro Energy reported net production of 9.6kboed, in line with our 9.5kboed forecast. We estimate EBITDA of USD42m (Bloomberg consensus at USD41m) ahead of the Q1 results (due at c07:00 CET on 23 May). We view the recent discovery at Hibiscus South as accretive to our NAV by ~NOK1/share, illustrating the strong prospectivity and commerciality at the Dussafu licence. We reiterate our BUY and NOK41 target price.
- Steffen Evjen
US shale: limited growth expected
Our Q1 survey of the US shale universe showed limited revisions to guidance for 2024, and we still expect muted 2024 production growth of ~4% YOY (+8% YOY in 2023). The companies now expect fewer tailwinds from cost deflation, primarily due to operational efficiencies. Our survey also suggested capex down ~2% YOY, as companies guide for flat activity. For Q1, our universe spent 102% of its operating cash flow, split c50/50 capex and shareholder distributions.
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
Key takeaways from this week are: 1) BlueNord’s Q1 figures were in line with our estimates, and due to technical issues, the Tyra plateau ramp-up was prolonged to mid-Q4 (2024 production guidance reduced from >40kboed to ~35kboed); 2) DNO’s Q1 report showed net production slightly above consensus, and it announced it has acquired stakes in five fields in the Norne area from Vår Energi, adding ~3kboed of net production near-term; and 3) Panoro Energy’s Q1 trading update showed net production of 9...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a note on Aker BP highlighting our growing concerns of sharp cuts to consensus FCF, with capex assumptions beyond 2026 looking far too low to us – we are ~40% below consensus on 2027–2030e FCF. As well as BW Energy’s Q1 trading update revealing net production just below our estimate, it announced a sale & leaseback agreement, which we see as marginally accretive to our NAV. In other news, we believe the Tyra ramp-up will be in focus in BlueNord’s Q1 results, due next week
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 03/05/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$0.75 per share: Raising new equity to fund a high impact activity programme – ADX has raised A$13.5 mm of new equity priced at A$0.105 per share. One free-attaching option will be issued for evert two placement shares with an exercise price of A$0.15 per share and an expiry date of 08/05/2026. The proceeds from the raise will fund (1) the production testing of the 450 m gas column encountered at ...
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
GTE GRAN TIERRA ENERGY
EGY VAALCO ENERGY INC.
OMV OMV AG
TXP TOUCHSTONE EXPLORATION
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
CHAR CHARIOT OIL & GAS
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
DELT DELTIC ENERGY
CNE CANACOL ENERGY LTD
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
JSE JADESTONE ENERGY
AXL. ARROW EXPLORATION LTD
I3E I3 ENERGY
TRIN TRINITY CAPITAL INC
CEQ CRITERIUM ENERGY LTD.
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
BWEFF BW ENERGY LTD
LNGE LNG ENERGY GROUP CORP.
SHELL ROYAL DUTCH SHELL
- Steffen Evjen
- Stephane Foucaud
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Drilling to restart in EG in June. 70% 2...
Positive update in Gabon • 1Q24 gross production was 24,840 boe/d increasing to 29,800 boe/d to date in 2Q24 (Panoro WI: 17.5%). • The increasing production reflects the first Hibiscus South well coming on stream in March and encouraging production performance from two wells on ESP at Hibiscus. A third Hibiscus well continues to produce on natural flow at high rate. • We anticipate production will continue to grow given the addition of a recently completed well at Ruche that is expected to be pu...
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 26/04/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Important step to unlock Sicily – The Italian ministry has informed ADX that it will be granted the d 363C.R-.AX gas exploration permit in the Sicily Channel. In addition, the Regional Administrative Court of Rome has annulled the Plan for the Sustainable Energy Transition of Eligible Areas that prevented the oil redevelopment, appraisal and exploration activities on the licence. ...
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
GPRK GEOPARK
SOU SOUND ENERGY PLC
ENI ENI S.P.A.
REP REPSOL SA
SEI. SINTANA ENERGY
PEN PANORO ENERGY ASA
NOG NOSTRUM OIL & GAS PLC
SQZ SERICA ENERGY
ZPHR ZEPHYR ENERGY
OKEA OKEA
I3E I3 ENERGY
RHC ROYAL HELIUM LTD
TRIN TRINITY CAPITAL INC
SOUC SOUTHERN ENERGY CORP
ITH ITHACA ENERGY PLC
TCF TRILLION ENERGY INTERNATIONAL INC. (TCF)
SEAPT NO SEACREST PETROLEO BERMUDA - SEAPT NO
ADX ADX ENERGY LTD
J4V VAR ENERGI ASA
LNGE LNG ENERGY GROUP CORP.
- Stephane Foucaud
Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Drilling to restart in EG in June. 70% 2...
• A drilling contract has been awarded for the Noble Venturer drill ship to recommence infill drilling at the Ceiba Field and Okume Complex in June. Owing to limitations arising from the shallower water depth at one of the planned infill well locations, the drilling campaign will now comprise of two infill wells. The third infill well will be deferred as part of a potential future drilling campaign. • This allow production in EG to return to growth. In addition, the rig will then drill the high ...
- Steffen Evjen
Solid NCS production in March
The preliminary Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) production figures for the NCS in March showed strong liquids production of 2,086kboed (~4% above forecast) and gas production of 365mcm/d (broadly in line). Overall production was up 2.7% MOM. On a company level, production was down MOM for most names in February; Aker BP and Equinor were hit by reduced production from Johan Sverdrup, while Vår Energi was hampered by downtime at Fenja.
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we published a Q1 preview on Equinor. We believe its share price upswing since its CMU is mainly attributable to strong performance by its peer group. The stock is trading at a 15% premium to peers, in line with its historical average. In other news, Vår Energi reported Q1 production in line with our estimates, with realised prices slightly above. We expect focus in the full Q1 report (due on 23 April) to be on Balder X and Johan Castberg. Also, according to news sources, Equinor’s ch...
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, Equinor, Vår Energi and Aker BP reported their Q1 trading updates ahead of their full quarterly results later this month. Equinor’s update contained little incremental information for the quarter, Vår Energi reported net production of 300kboed (in line with our estimate, whereas realised prices were slightly above), and we find Aker BP’s update supportive of our 2024 above-guidance production estimate.
- Steffen Evjen
- Steffen Evjen
Weekly news, topics & discussion
This week, we updated our estimates for Vår Energi following its Capital Markets Update. We believe Vår Energi presented a viable plan to sustain production above 340kboed until 2030, with upside potential to our estimates if exploration proves successful. As investors gain more confidence in Vår Energi’s long-term production outlook, we see the potential for a repricing towards peers on dividend yield, implying >20% upside potential from yesterday’s close. In other news, we published notes on B...
- Stephane Foucaud
AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 05/04/2024
AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ ADX Energy (ADX AU)C; target price of A$1.00 per share: Sample analysis at Welchau – Compositional analysis of a gas sample at Welchau shows 92 mole % methane, 4 mole % ethane with low CO2 and no H2S. Criterium Energy (CEQ CN)C; target price of C$0.30 per share: Growth within cashflow – The FY24 guidance reflects a self-funded development and debt repayment programme. While a reduced capital programme, we believe this is a prudent str...
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