Panoro Energy (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Set for strong FCF growth

Ahead of the Q1 report, due at 07:00 CET on 21 May, we forecast net production of 12.7kboed (no reliable consensus). Due to a significant underlift and limited crude volumes sold in the quarter, we estimate EBITDA of USD-2m (no reliable consensus). After several years of missing production guidance and investor expectations, we believe meeting 2025 guidance of 11–13kboed (we forecast 11.6kboed), supported by strong FCF growth and attractive shareholder distributions, would warrant a re-rating of...

Crude Quarterly Q1'25: weaker oil market fundamentals

Estimate changes from Crude Quarterly, 3 April

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, we published a note on the harsh reality of USD70/bbl for our coverage. While investors appear to be positioning for lower oil prices, we believe consensus FCF estimates for NCS large caps remain overly aggressive. Meanwhile, DNO announced a discovery at the Kjøttkake prospect, north-west of Troll, adding ~NOK0.8/share (~4%) to DNO’s NAV and ~NOK1/share to Aker BP’s (

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector

Weekly news, topics and discussion

This week, NCS February production was broadly in line with the NOD’s expectations, with total output flat MOM but down 2.4% YOY. Aker BP showed solid January production, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO showed declines MOM. Halten East is now on stream, but its slow ramp-up limits Vår Energi’s 2025 uplift to ~5kboed, reinforcing the downside risk to its 330–360kboed guidance. Also, DNO successfully placed a new USD600m bond (8.5% coupon) to refinance DNO04 and for general corporate purpo...

NCS February production in line

The Norwegian Offshore Directorate’s (NOD) preliminary NCS figures for February showed liquids production of 1,938kboed (in line with its forecast) and gas production of 355mcm/d (3.8% above its estimate). Overall production was 4.17mmboed, flat MOM (1.8% above its forecast), but down 2.4% YOY. Company-wise, Aker BP reported solid production in January, while Equinor, Vår Energi, OKEA and DNO all reported production down MOM.

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, BlueNord cut its Q1 production guidance by ~25% due to a breaker failure at Tyra, implying a 5% hit to 2025 guidance and likely delaying the first dividend from March to May. Following DNO’s Sval Energi acquisition, we upgraded OKEA to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK23 (20). We believe historical NCS transaction multiples provide valuation support for OKEA. Meanwhile, the sector is down 10–20% since Brent peaked at USD82/bbl in mid-January, with scarce oil macro support ...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

Energy Morning - 10 March 2025

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week,

Panoro Energy ASA (OSE: PEN): Material discovery in Gabon

• The Bourdon exploration well has encountered approximately 34 metres of net oil pay within a 45-metre column in the Gamba reservoir formation, representing the largest hydrocarbon column discovered to date at Dussafu. • Prior to drilling, Bourdon was expected to hold around 5.1 mmbbl prospective resources, net to Panoro’s WI • An appraisal side-track could be drilled to better assess the size of the discovery. Depending on the extent of the find, it could be developed as either a subsea tieb...

Energy Morning - 7 March 2025

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 07/03/2025

GeoPark (GPRK US)C; Target price of US$17 per share: Four new exploration wells at Confluencia Sur – The FY24 production had been reported previously. Gross production in Argentina is approximately 15,000 boe/d and is expected to increase to around 16,000-17,000 boe/d by the end of 2025. The acquisition of the Argentinian assets is anticipated to be completed in late 1Q25 or early 2Q25 pending the regulatory approval of the Neuquen province. While the test results at the three wells drilled at C...

Valuation update

In this note, we show updated valuation statistics for the E&P sector.

US shale: resilient growth in 2025e

Based on our Q4 survey of US shale companies, we expect continued efficiency gains, productivity improvements, and operational synergies from consolidation to drive ~5% YOY liquids production growth in 2025, broadly in line with 2024 levels. This is despite an estimated 5% YOY decline in capex, indicating that production is expanding steadily without a corresponding increase in activity. The combination of rising production and declining capex is likely to drive down breakeven levels, strengthen...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Panoro Energy reported Q4 results and 2025 guidance in line with expectations. While production may trend towards the lower end of the guided 11–13kboed, the stock’s ~30% NAV discount suggests solid execution could drive a re-rating. Meanwhile, BlueNord expects to complete the Tyra completion test by mid-March, having already surpassed the 34.0kboed gas export threshold – a key milestone that would enable shareholder distributions. In exploration, Vår Energi announced a ~13–45mmboe di...

AUCTUS ON FRIDAY - 28/02/2025

AUCTUS PUBLICATIONS ________________________________________ Condor Energies (CDR CN)C; Target price of C$5.60 per share: 2nd success at bypassed carbonate formation intervals boosts production to >12 mboe/d - Condor has successfully perforated and brought online bypassed carbonate formations at a second well. As a result, production has increased from 11,455 boe/d reported last week to an average of 12,004 boe/d over the last six days. Using a combination of legacy data and reprocessed 3-D seis...